Recession Could Be Closer Than Most Realize

[Quixote1818]

Snip: Simply put: when the consumer catches a cold, the entire economy can get pneumonia.

Something like that appears to be happening. Retail sales are down sharply due to a combination of weak wage growth, income inequality (“average” gains have been heavily skewed to the wealthy, leaving most Americans worse off), and deflationary expectations.

Meanwhile, consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest level since November, and consumer spending fell in May. Inflation was also lower in May.

On top of this, the Fed is creating headwinds with rate hikes and by reducing the money supply through its new program of quantitative tightening, or QT. With stock market indices hitting new all-time highs almost daily, and the economy hitting stall speed, a severe stock market correction is in the cards.

More: http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2017/06/recession-closer-realize/

[dalton99a]

1. It is inevitable, and it is coming.

[Quixote1818]

3. I wonder if I should pull my money out of the market now?

It's probably not going to go up much more before the crash.

[dalton99a]

6. Dunno - talking heads are saying 2019:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/02/global-recession-risk-has-significantly-increased-strategist-warns.html

[Squinch]

16. I took mine out in February. Though the crash hasn't yet come, the

funds I was in have pretty much gunked around at the same level as February, so I haven't lost anything. And I've saved myself a lot of worry.

[mwooldri]

2. And if Trump follows through on massive tax/tariff hikes on Chinese imports...

... then things are going to get more expensive quickly and consumers will shut their wallet.. simply because the dollar amounts to buy what they had went up... and they will be asking what next? Employers won't pump up wages to compensate.

Now part of me wants the Republicans to do well enough to have razor thin margins in 2018 so that Trump and the Republicans would totally own a screwed up economy... But I don't know how much more of this shit I can stand.

[Hoyt]

4. Sooner or later, but is the Wall Street Examiner creditable?

[global1]

5. And Trump Already Has His Excuse And Fall Guy When This Goes South....

The Fed.

[unblock]

7. to be clear, he's predicting that the market will crash, which is typically 6 months or so before

a recession.

economists generally aren't predicting a recession before the second half of 2019 at the earliest; 6 months before that would be late this year, which certainly seems in line with this guy's prediction, he's not saying a stock market crash is happening tomorrow.

[RDANGELO]

8. Trump never aknowledges income inequality.

The result of that is low consumer demand to drive the economy. Considering his trade policies, it makes no sense. If the desired result isn't higher wages , than what is it.

[Midnight Writer]

9. I think if we give the rich another tax cut we should be OK for six months or so.

[Squinch]

17. How do you figure?

[msongs]

10. the long term record is clear - repubs create recessions and dems end them nt

[duforsure]

11. Is trump doing all this

To hurt our economy , and China, and help the russian economy all for putin?

[Sherman A1]

12. This article is over a year old

so I have to wonder just how relative the information happens to be?

[Achilleaze]

13. Punishing weather is also a factor

reminding us all that

republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America
republican lies on climate change are dangerous for America

[no_hypocrisy]

14. Not only has consumer confidence fallen, but also

credit has been tightened.

15 years ago with *, people could go running to home equity loans to keep buying stuff. Now there's increased interest rates, falling home prices, job insecurity. Consumers don't want to risk bankruptcy to put in a new kitchen or buy a new car.

Trickle down economics realistically is a constrained consumer who affects retail and contractors.

[Recursion]

15. The Treasury yield curve is nearly flat

3 YR: 2.68
5 YR: 2.75

You want about .80 or even 1.0 between them.

[Squinch]

18. Wow. That's getting worse pretty quickly.

[Recursion]

19. Yeah it collapsed late last week

Took me by surprise. Strap in, kids!

[Wounded Bear]

20. I'm surprised it has taken this long...

[roamer65]

21. The trade war is going to start the next recession.

[ck4829]

23. It's already happening

[ck4829]

22. K&R