The Republican Base Might Not Be As Scary As It Looks

[Gothmog]

The GOP base is shrinking https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/07/the-pro-trump-republican-base-that-many-politicians-fear-may-be-shrinking.html

Voters have to identify themselves with a political party, and that identification isn’t stable; it ebbs and flows with events and circumstances. Trump might win high marks from most Republicans, but the pool of Republican voters might be smaller than in the past. Far from standing tall over the entire GOP, Trump’s base may have eroded significantly from where it was at the beginning of his administration.

According to the Pew Research Center, Republican Party identification fell 3 points, to 26 percent, from 2016 to the end of 2017. The number of self-identified independents increased at the same time, from 34 percent to 37 percent, while the number of Democrats remained steady. Gallup shows a similar change: From November 2016 to November 2017, there was a 5-point drop in the number of people who called themselves Republicans, from 42 percent to 37 percent. Democratic self-identification remained unchanged at 44 percent.

The sheer size of the United States makes it easy to find vocal support for anyone and anything, and Donald Trump has his vocal supporters. But their staunch commitment overshadows the reality: a shrinking base for a president who won by the skin of his teeth, reliant on a small group of voters in just a handful of states. His scandals and outrages—controversies and improprieties—have had an effect. Even rank-and-file GOP reactions to Helsinki are revealing; according to CBS, 21 percent of Republican voters disapproved of the president, a striking number given typical partisan loyalty.

A smaller base is still a base, and depending on their locations and constituencies, Trump-skeptic Republican lawmakers may see a backlash if they challenge the president. John McCain’s anti-Trump defiance has earned him real anger from Arizona voters, even as he prepares to leave office.

[Hortensis]

1. We knew the Republican Party's been shrinking, but

there's even some shrinkage among Trump's base? VERY interesting! Of course we know those who remain are effectively batshit-crazy, but still. They thought they'd elected a strong man.

[A HERETIC I AM]

2. "The Republican Base Might Not Be As Scary As It Looks"

That assumes one thinks they are scary in the first place.

Frankly, I'm not impressed.

[C_U_L8R]

3. They look scary?

They seem more ridiculous and laughable. Sure they get all red faced and yell horrible racist stuff. But these are real bottom of the barrel dead enders here. They contribute nothing. They have no creativity or economic clout. Intellectually nobodies. They are retro everything and going nowhere. Flops, fascists and feckless couch potatoes. That’s what happens when you conserve and stew in your own tribal fears. You get the angry toads. Pepe, whatever.

[stopbush]

4. When the media tells us that 90% of Rs support tRump

that means maybe, maybe 23% of the voting population.

Good to remember as the media tries their best to discourage us.

[The Blue Flower]

5. YES, THIS

40% of a shrinking base isn't a lot of voters

[MyOwnPeace]

6. I truly believe.............

that a shrinking base, plus newly-disillusioned and independents, along with GETTING OUT THE VOTE, especially those that stayed at home because they thought that there was no way that IQ45 could possibly win, will be enough to get rid of him - unless Mueller does it first!

[yonder]

7. Thank you for this very hopeful post.

[McCamy Taylor]

8. 25% of Americans will insist the earth is flat. Cheney kept 25% support.

[FSogol]

9. K&R n/t

[Gothmog]

10. From Nate Silver

Link to tweet