The odds that Democrats will take the House in the 2018 midterms keep looking better

[babylonsister]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/24/17607138/2018-midterm-elections-predictions-generic-ballot-democrats

The odds that Democrats will take the House in the 2018 midterms keep looking better
100 days from the 2018 midterm election, here are three reasons Democratic odds are improving.
By Dylan [e-mail]@vox.com Jul 24, 2018, 11:10am EDT


With a little more than three months left until Election Day, Democrats seem to be strengthening their position to win control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections.

Two data points will suffice to explain the situation right now:

On Tuesday, the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball, one of the nation’s premier election forecasters, changed its ratings for 17 House districts — and all of them moved in favor of Democrats.

Democrats’ lead in the generic ballot, if you go by the RealClearPolitics polling average, has quietly doubled (and then some) since the beginning of June, from a mere 3.2 percentage points to a healthy 7.1 points. That is roughly the margin political science nerds think they need.

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If you want to add a third point, Democrats have been posting very strong fundraising numbers, with Democratic challengers outraising GOP incumbents in some of the nation’s most competitive districts, as Vox’s Tara Golshan recently noted.

“Put it all together, and the Democrats now look like soft favorites to win a House majority with a little more than 100 days to go,” the Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik wrote on Tuesday. He emphasized how reluctant they have been to move the odds from 50-50, but the indicators for Democrats keep looking better and better.

A quick assessment of the House battleground further supports the case.

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https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/24/17607138/2018-midterm-elections-predictions-generic-ballot-democrats

[dalton99a]

1. The abomination must be stopped.