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Wed Jul 25, 2018, 01:38 PM

COOK POLITICAL moves GA-GOV from "SAFE R" to "LEAN R"...could go to "TOSS UP"

Yesterday’s Republican run-off in Georgia’s gubernatorial contest is as good an example as there is as to why parties hate run-offs. They are risky propositions that can produce results that change the trajectory of a general election. Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s nomination has made the general election much more difficult for Republicans and moves the race to the Lean Republican column.

Kemp easily won the GOP run-off, defeating Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, 69 percent to 31 percent. Cagle finished first in the May 22 primary with 39 percent, followed by Kemp with 26; three other candidates split the remaining 35 percent. Cagle started the nine-week run-off as a slight favorite. He had more resources and the support of much of the state’s GOP establishment. Even so, he was going to have to fight his way to 50 percent.

Kemp’s strengths in the run-off were that he is a down the line conservative. His ads featured guns (including a shotgun pointed at his daughter’s boyfriend), promises to blow up government (complete with an explosion), and a big truck that he promised to use to round up criminal illegals. At the end of one spot, Kemp referred to himself as a politically incorrect conservative. In ads attacking Cagle, Kemp accused him of failing to support President Trump, of incompetence in office and only pretending to be a conservative. It didn’t help that taped conversations came to light in which Cagle was heard saying that race had come down to, “who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck, and who could be the craziest.” He was right, but it didn’t endear him to run-off voters. The final and perhaps most effective arrow that Kemp had in his quiver was an endorsement from President Trump.

...snip...

Democrats contend that Georgia is a winnable state for them, pointing out that Trump took just 51 percent to 46 percent for Clinton. They believe that Abrams will perform better in a year that favors Democrats. Unlike past races, Democrats seem more interested in maximizing their base than they are trying to appeal to the middle. Republicans believe that the strategy is flawed, pointing out that more Republicans turned out in both the primary and the run-off than Democrats turned out in the primary. Both campaigns will ultimately have all the financial resources they need between their own fundraising, dedicated super PACs, and help from the RGA and the Democratic Governors Association. But, Abrams starts the general election in better shape financially. As of June 30, she had raised $6 million for the cycle and had $1.5 million in the bank. By contrast, Kemp has raised $5.1 million for the cycle and had a cash-on-hand total of $442,000 as of July 18.

Democrats are often very enthusiastic about opportunities in Georgia, only to be disappointed, but Abrams might put them closer than ever to kicking the proverbial football. Still, Republicans start the race with a bit of an advantage and thus is in the Lean Republican column. That said, there is great potential for the contest to land in Toss Up.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/georgia-governor/kemp-victory-puts-contest-lean-republican-column

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Arrow 21 replies Author Time Post
Reply COOK POLITICAL moves GA-GOV from "SAFE R" to "LEAN R"...could go to "TOSS UP" (Original post)
brooklynite Jul 25 OP
Ilsa Jul 25 #1
C Moon Jul 28 #10
beachbum bob Jul 25 #2
Hortensis Jul 25 #3
DFW Jul 26 #4
CottonBear Jul 31 #18
DFW Jul 31 #19
kimbutgar Jul 26 #5
lagomorph777 Aug 2 #21
blue-wave Jul 26 #6
Awsi Dooger Jul 27 #7
Blue_true Jul 29 #13
7962 Jul 31 #14
Blue_true Jul 31 #20
hueymahl Jul 27 #8
bucolic_frolic Jul 28 #9
MRDAWG Jul 29 #11
7962 Jul 31 #15
CottonBear Jul 31 #17
Crash2Parties Jul 29 #12
GoCubsGo Jul 31 #16

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Jul 25, 2018, 01:44 PM

1. Of course Trump endorsed Kemp, he's a cheat

just like Donald. This last time, he cheated farmers out of actual funds he personally owed them. He cheated banks in vankruptcy. As SoS, he was reesponsible for the security of our election system. 600,000 Georgians'personal data was stolen during his tenure. He's a PoS.

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #1)

Sat Jul 28, 2018, 03:04 PM

10. Kemp must be the one Putin is going to hack for.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Jul 25, 2018, 01:54 PM

2. This would be a great win for democrats in Georgia and in America.

A fuck you to trump....

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Jul 25, 2018, 01:55 PM

3. Wow! Couldn't have done it without GA Republicans.

Good job, all of you. With Trump's endorsement and factory-level dog whistle ads like this, we're especially pleased that your choice to try to stop Democrat Stacey Abrams is ol' Brian.



These Georgia Republican Campaign Ads Are Somehow Not Fake"
Brian Kemp would like to show you his guns, truck and chainsaw, the latter of which is “ready to rip up some regulation”

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/brian-kemp-ads-701456/


Go, Stacey!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 12:16 PM

4. Charlie doesn't make a status change like that on a whim

If he changed his status for Georgia, it was due to solid statistical evidence

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Response to DFW (Reply #4)

Tue Jul 31, 2018, 08:37 AM

18. That is good news, however, Kemp is SoS in charge of voting machines & data.

I’ll be working to get Abrams elected. I think only massive turnout can overcome GA SoS, GA GOP & Russian attacks on our 100% electronic voting machine system.

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Response to CottonBear (Reply #18)

Tue Jul 31, 2018, 08:43 AM

19. Good. Don't let up!

Charlie Cook has a good hand on the pulse of things, but at the end of the day is only an observer, if a very astute one. He doesn't wave a magic wand to make things happen any more than the rest of us can.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 01:06 PM

5. Kemp should recuse himself adminstering and counting voting as Secretary of State

I don’t trust those voting machines in Georgia. Stacey Abrams should demand paper ballots in this election and ask for his recusal.

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Response to kimbutgar (Reply #5)

Thu Aug 2, 2018, 04:08 PM

21. That should be the law.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Thu Jul 26, 2018, 11:41 PM

6. Been saying for a long time now

Georgia and Texas should be blue states. Maybe I was a little ahead of the curve but I was hoping in my lifetime. Maybe, just maybe this time. VOTE! VOTE!! VOTE!!

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Response to blue-wave (Reply #6)

Fri Jul 27, 2018, 12:03 AM

7. Still too many conservatives and not enough liberals

I prefer the mathematical foundation as a guideline. The nation in 2016 was 35% self-identified conservatives and 26% liberals. Contrast to Georgia, which reported 42-22 and Texas at 44-20.

Those are still many cycles away. We only win those states if the national slant is so severe that all the more friendly states have already joined.

Arizona is the more logical opportunity, at 41-27. Once a state reports 27% liberals then all systems are Go, if not for 2020 then 2024 or 2028. Just have to get the number of conservatives down to 37 or 38%. Arizona is an older state with 25% of voters aged 65 or above. Contrast to the national percentage of 16% in that category. That's partially why Arizona is so promising. I don't mean to be morbid about this but bottom line many of Trump's supporters in Arizona from 2016 won't be alive in 2020, or 2024. Granted, older people move to retire there.

Georgia and Texas are slightly younger than the national average in terms of voters aged 50 and up, which means persuasion is key and that's more difficult. We can't rely on shifting age of the population to provide several points in our direction.

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Response to Awsi Dooger (Reply #7)

Sun Jul 29, 2018, 10:23 PM

13. Georgia is different, this race is different.

The population of Georgia is 58% White, 30% Black, the rest other (about 5% Asian). A good Black candidate is running as a democrat, and she need to run a strong race.

The race basically comes down to what progressive Whites and Asians do with their votes. Also, how good democrats there are at registering new voters, my guess is republican voters are maxed out as it is, so any new voter upside should heavily favor the democrat.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #13)

Tue Jul 31, 2018, 07:21 AM

14. A lot of R's just dont like Kemp. They could stay home. But Abrahms also has issues.

Her credit card debt WILL be an issue when it comes to the ad cycle.
But again, many Rs may sit it out thinking Kemp wins without their vote. As I mentioned in another OP, a guy I know said from the start he would NOT vote for Kemp simply because of those absolutely stupid pandering ads in the primary.

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Response to 7962 (Reply #14)

Tue Jul 31, 2018, 12:15 PM

20. Kemp has something like 10 times the debt that she has.

Kemp has been sued for failing to repay a $1.3 million dollar loan and he owes millions more. If he wants to make Abrams debt an issue, she should tell him to bring it on. Her credit card debt was to support treatment for an ill relative and she tried to help poor family. If she frames it right, her debt look charitable, as opposed to ripping people off like Kemp did.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Fri Jul 27, 2018, 10:18 AM

8. Kemp has always come off to me as kind of stupid and fake

All of that guns and conservative values is just an act. He actually reminds me a lot of W. But without the charisma.

Unfortunately, he will probably win. I'm going to do everything I can to help Abrams, though.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sat Jul 28, 2018, 12:24 PM

9. Republican candidates should recuse themselves in all elections

they are too biased to allow the voters to decide

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sun Jul 29, 2018, 08:57 PM

11. Don't get excted! Kemp controles the voting machines and in Ga..............

there is no paper trail. Today's Atlanta newspaper has a report on Ga voting machines. A study commission is studying recommendations on the voting machines problem. KEMP HAS NOT COOPERATED WITH THE STUDY COMMISSION.

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Response to MRDAWG (Reply #11)

Tue Jul 31, 2018, 07:23 AM

15. Believe it or not, I think the winner of the GOP SoS runoff backs paper ballot trails.

I think that guy won anyway.

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Response to 7962 (Reply #15)

Tue Jul 31, 2018, 08:32 AM

17. We Georgians need 100% paper ballots & NO electronic voting machines. N/T

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Sun Jul 29, 2018, 09:07 PM

12. If I were going to manipulate GA elections this is exactly as I'd want it to look at this point, too


(copy and paste the URL please, it's getting parsed at the "at" symbol)

https://medium.com/@jennycohn1/georgia-6-and-the-voting-machine-vendors-87278fdb0cdf

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jul 31, 2018, 08:23 AM

16. They're already runinning the smear commercials against Stacy Abrams.

They're smearing her as a "socialist," "too liberal for Georgia," and they're tying her to Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi, but no male Democrats. No misogyny there. Nope. Nuh uh.


One can only hope that enough Dems get out the vote in order to counteract the tampering of the electronic voting machines that is certain to happen. They've done it before. They'll do it again.

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