Trump's Iran Strategy: Regime Change on the Cheap
By Jonah Shepp
July 30, 2018
2:10 am
A week ago, President Donald Trump tweeted in all caps at the Iranian government, warning of “CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE” if Tehran ever dared threaten the United States. Predictably, this tweet set off a frenzy of speculation that the Trump administration was planning to declare war on Iran imminently — or even worse, that Trump was about do so impulsively.
Within 36 hours, Trump had walked back his bombast, saying the U.S. was ready to make a deal with Iran and insisting that his decision to tear up the agreement over its nuclear program and reimpose sanctions had put Iran in a situation where it would have to take whatever deal it was offered. Crisis averted, or so it seemed.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials hit back at Trump’s Twitter tirade, saying that they would respond in kind if the U.S. stepped up its efforts to cut off markets for Iran’s oil exports, and stressing that Iran would not negotiate with the U.S. under threat of force. General Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force, hit back with his own dire warnings on Thursday, saying a war with Iran “will destroy all that you possess” and that if the U.S. starts that war, Iran will decide how it ends.
In the event of a war, Iran does indeed have ways of inflicting pain on the U.S. and its allies, including some that are not available to other adversaries like North Korea. It can step up its ongoing cyberespionage and cyberwarfare activities, use its regional proxies to attack U.S. interests and allies in the Middle East and exacerbate ongoing conflicts in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.
Iran’s trump card, which its officials alluded to last week, is the power it has to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 18 million barrels of oil travel per day, accounting for roughly 20 percent of the world’s supply. Even a partial blockade of that strategic waterway could send global oil prices skyrocketing. Such a move would be economically disastrous for Iran as well, but in the face of an existential threat, the regime in Tehran might decide it’s worth the price.
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