NJ-03: MacArthur Faces Tough Race In New Jersey

[RandySF]

You are here: Home / 2018 Campaign / MacArthur Faces Tough Race In New Jersey
MacArthur Faces Tough Race In New Jersey

August 14, 2018 at 11:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district finds Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-NJ) barely leading challenger Andy Kim (D), 41% to 40%, among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote.

“When applying two different likely voter models, the contest shifts in the Democrat’s favor although it remains basically tied. A historical midterm model gives Kim 45% support and MacArthur 44%, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic precincts gives Kim a slight 46% to 43% lead. These gaps are within the margin of error for these samples.”


https://politicalwire.com/2018/08/14/macarthur-faces-tough-race-in-new-jersey/

[JustAnotherGen]

1. I think Andy is going to win that one

Election results from presidential races in the 3rd.

Year Office Results
2016 President Trump 51 – 45%
2012 President Obama 52 – 47%
2008 President Obama 52 – 47%
2004 President Bush 51 – 49%
2000 President Gore 54 – 43%

The state is heavily gerrymandered - but I still think Andy can pull this off.

[NewJeffCT]

2. This would be a nice pickup

McArthur won by almost 20 points in 2016, but only about 10 points in 2014. A tough challenger in a blue state could mean that we #FlipItBlue

[beachbum bob]

3. New Jersey will not be kind to republicans