Rasmussan says African American approval of Trump is 36%?!?

[jcgoldie]

What the literal fuck! You could walk around all day in any city in America and finding a single black person who supports the racist asshole in chief would be like Diogenes looking for an honest man... well except sort of the opposite... Is that number supposed to be a joke? Were there 3 blacks in their survey and one was Kanye West and they rounded up? These Trumpsters on cable news are throwing that bullshit number out all over, what a joke!

[Grassy Knoll]

1. " Rasmussan Says "....

....

[lapfog_1]

2. The real number is something like 8%

which also seems too high to me.

[JHan]

3. better to look at the methodology because that is very suspect.

[uponit7771]

4. Something is wrong with that number, I don't know any black person who doesn't loath him

[uponit7771]

5. O NVM, it's rAssMussan

[LenaBaby61]

6. Rasmussan says African American approval of Trump is 36%?!?

Now, this is the definition of FAKE NEWS. A Rasmussen poll, and of course RealClear Politics is running with this crapola

"Trump frequently cites Rasmussen polls because they consistently show him with a higher approval rating than other polling organizations. For example, the Real Clear Politics average currently has Trump at 43 percent approval. But today's tracking poll from Rasmussen has the president at 49 percent. And while Trump has never topped 46 percent on the RCP average, Rasmussen has shown Trump with approval ratings as high as 59 percent."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/08/16/trump-approval-rating-african-americans-rasmussen-poll/1013212002/

59%

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

9. So why cite fake news?!

[oasis]

7. Paris Dennard's a sales genius.

Give that man a bonus.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. It's an IVR Poll

I suspect a lot of Trump supporting non-blacks press the button for blacks to troll/game the system.

In other polls I have seen a range of 3% to 16%. The margin of error for a sub-group is probably around 11%

[Anon-C]

10. If it Sounds Too Good to Be True...

[vlyons]

11. I call BS on that

No way is it 36%. Just another Republican lie.

[world wide wally]

12. The 36 is the total number of black Americans that approve of Trump... NOT %

[jcgoldie]

14. Ding ding ding!

You cracked the case Wally!

[Loki Liesmith]

13. Small sample size for subgroups

[JCanete]

15. wow, how the hell did they pull off that number. i know that's bogus. nt

[Squinch]

16. I have a real fear about this: is this a ratfucking attempt to clear

ground to change votes in African American districts? And then when the results on election day are crazy, they'll be able to say, "Nah, not crazy. Rasmussen called it in August!"

Am I being paranoid?

[LakeArenal]

30. I don't know if you're paranoid,

But Republicans, believe , have already done it.

[Agschmid]

17. I'm not shocked by the number at all.

I’m surprised by how many gay men I’ve encountered who supported Trump. Its actually quite frustrating.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. You should be surprised by it because it's contradicted by virtually other pollster.

[Agschmid]

29. Yeah I spoke to soon, but regardless I'm still surprised by the support I see in some groups.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. I don't see how a lgtbq person can be GOP.

If it were up to the GOP Hardwick V Georgia would still be the law of the land, and states could imprison people for engaging in consensual same sex acts. All the Republican Supreme Court justices who sipplied the 6-3 majority in Lawrence V Texas that overturned Hardwick are gone. Democrats supplied four of the five vote majority in Obergefell v. Hodges which provided same sex couples the right to marry. The lone Republican on the Court who voted with the Obergefell majority is gone.

Why someone would support a party that sees them as less than full citizens and wants to deprive them of rights everybody else has is mind boggling. Excuse me for cursing but its f--king mind boggling.

[Garrett78]

28. The number is bullshit, though. The actual number is about 1/4th what Rasmussen claims.

[John Fante]

18. LMAO, Trump doesn't poll that with the AAs who attend his rallies.

Rasmussen: propping up shithead's poll average since 2017.

[underpants]

19. It's a transposition

When the digits add up to 9 go back and see if you switched two numbers.

There was a thread about this with some research just a few days ago.

[Hekate]

20. I think they misplaced a decimal point

Could be 3.6 % or 0.36 %. But never 36%.

[underpants]

21. Here you go. No, one-third of African Americans don't support Trump. Not even close.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/17/no-one-third-of-african-americans-dont-support-trump-not-even-close/

[Gothmog]

35. I trust the Washington Post on this

[malaise]

23. They must be planning to steal that many African-American votes

[smirkymonkey]

24. Rasmussen is full of shit.

There is no way that number is correct. No way.

[mfcorey1]

25. That is a lie bigger than even drumpf can tell.

[ProudLib72]

26. I'm so happy you started this thread so I could use my meme again

[former9thward]

27. Here is analysis from CNN which is no friend of Trump's

Last edited Sat Aug 18, 2018, 06:03 PM - Edit history (1)

Trump has gained among black voters since the 2016 election

Polls of higher quality such as Quinnipiac's -- probability-based polls that are transparent about their data -- have consistently found Trump's approval rating to be much lower. The President's approval rating in these polls completed since July has averaged 12% with African-Americans. His disapproval rating has averaged 84%.

The network exit polls had Trump winning only 8% among black voters in 2016. Hillary Clinton took 89% of their vote. That is, Clinton won black voters by an 81-percentage-point margin.

Trump's average net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) with blacks right now is -72 points. In other words, he's shrunk his deficit by 9 points.

I would argue, though, that the President has made an even bigger improvement. To make an apples-to-apples comparison, we can look at a post-election Pew Research Center study with verified voters. Pew found that Clinton had an even larger margin 85-point margin with black voters, of 91% to 6%. If this study were correct, it would mean that Trump had doubled his black support since the election. (Note: Trump's approval rating with blacks in a Pew poll in June, not included in our average, was 14%. Again, this suggests he has gained since the election.)

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/18/politics/poll-of-the-week-trump-black-voters/index.html

So CNN is saying support is in the 12-14% range.

[crazycatlady]

31. Kayne West rounded up Ben Carson

[Ilsa]

33. You forgot Clayton Bigsby (as portrayed by Dave Chapelle). nt

[riversedge]

34. "An NAACP poll released on Aug. 7 found that Trump's approval rating was at 21 percent. And a ....

There does appear to be an upward trend.--given these 3 polls...





https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/08/16/trump-approval-rating-african-americans-rasmussen-poll/1013212002/

.....But other polls have also shown an increase in support for Trump among African-Americans – albeit a more modest increase than Rasmussen found.

An NAACP poll released on Aug. 7 found that Trump's approval rating was at 21 percent. And a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in June found Trump's approval rating among blacks at 14 percent.

Although a vast majority of African-Americans still disapprove of Trump's job as president, those numbers represent an improvement from his share of the vote in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has done better than 12 percent among blacks since Bob Dole in 1996, according to Cornell University's Roper Center.

[Awsi Dooger]

36. Blacks have a history of approving of Republican presidents but not voting for them

I think there is some confusion here. Approval rating hardly aligns with intention to vote.

George Bush reached as high as 41% Gallup approval among blacks in 2002, according to a chart at this link:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/17350/black-support-bush-gop-remains-low.aspx

I searched for that link today because I remember the trend, and the discussion here and elsewhere at the time. It hardly meant Bush would receive 41% of the black vote.

However, and this is the same thing I emphasized in 2004, it does likely mean that blacks will support Trump in greater numbers in 2020 than they did in 2016. It is a long term logical trend. When a margin is so lopsided it's just damn tough to keep it that lopsided. Familiarity and benefit of a doubt creep in. Just because more balanced blocks may turn more against Trump doesn't mean that the block most opposed to Trump will remain fully intact.

For example, George Bush received 9% of the black vote in 2000 but that number rose to 11% during reelection in 2004.

I would expect something similar for Donald Trump. This is a great example of ignoring day to day variables. If you pay attention and try to rationalize it day to day there is no chance it will make sense. Just adopt a big picture viewpoint and understand it will happen, far more likely than not.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Four points, my friend

1) The Rasmussen results are contradicted by virtually every other pollster including high quality pollsters like Marist, Quinnipiac, and Gallup. They all have Trump below fifteen percent.

2) In the aftermath of 9-11 Bush received high approval ratings among all groups and 2002 was certainly close enough in time to 9-11 to be considered its aftermath. His approval rating at Gallup hit 90% on 9/20/01. Virtually everybody wanted him to succeed , even me.

3) Trump received 8% of the African American vote. That's the lowest share of the African American vote a Republican has ever received when his opponent wasn't African American.

4) If the Democrats nominate Kamala Harris or Cory Booker Trump won't sniff ten percent. In fact if Trump's 2020 opponent is African American he won't even sniff John McCain's 3% that he received against Barack Obama in 2008. Trump will run such a racially divisive campaign he might not even get 1%.


More:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/17/no-one-third-of-african-americans-dont-support-trump-not-even-close/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.67c317741ff6

[Awsi Dooger]

41. I appreciate all of that, but nothing refuted my point

Trump's current approval rating among blacks is certainly higher than on election day 2016, or that yourself or others here prefer to believe. I don't care about Rasmussen. My point was regarding the tendencies of blacks to get comfortable with the president and indicate approval of him, whether or not they voted for him previously or would vote for him in the future. Other polls nowadays won't reach 36% but they will absolutely be double digits and 20% or above would not surprise me at all in an isolated survey.

If you check that Gallup link that I provided, it was hardly restricted to 2002. I used that 41% number merely because it was the high water mark. Other Bush approval numbers among blacks from that Gallup link were 37% in 2001, 32% in 2003, and 16% in 2004 and 2005.

In other words, even after Bush's overall approval number plummeted due to the war and post-Katrina, he was still mid teens in black approval.

That is the only thing I am pointing out. It is a misconception here and elsewhere that black approval rating of the president remains constant with the percentage of the vote that he received. I remember having this exact discussion with jiacinto and others here, so long ago.

If Trump received 8% of the black vote in 2016 I would expect somewhere in the 10% neighborhood in 2020.

I am a handicapper and that handicapping is not influenced by my biases, whether it's sports or politics or elsewhere.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. We will have to respectfully disagree.

Donald Trump will never receive ten percent of the vote against Kamala Harris or Cory Booker, especially when he runs a white racial identity campaign, something McCain and Romney scrupulously avoided.

There is also no iron clad law that suggests a Republican president's share of the African American vote goes up in his re-election campaign. Ronald Reagan did worse among African Americans in 1984 than he did in 1980 though intuitively you would have thought he would have done better because the economy was better but he did worse because he was seen as making policy that was inimical to African American interests.

[workinclasszero]

37. Freepers are using this fairy tale

to predict a red wave (eww) in the midterms

[BumRushDaShow]

39. "Rasmussan says..."

And I stopped reading after that.

But since you mention Kanye - you could add "Diamond and Silk" as the other 2.

[wellst0nev0ter]

40. Small, unrepresentative sample size

especially if the numbers are part of a bigger poll. Ignore.

[edbermac]

42. Forgot the decimal point between 3 and 6.

[Flaleftist]

44. lol nt.