Pollsters: Trump and GOP are losing young, female voters permanently

[bearsfootball516]

Pollsters Anna Greenberg and Dan Cox said on Monday that President Trump and Republicans are losing young women to Democrats permanently.

"When you ask millennial women who are likely voters, about 65, 68 percent would actually vote for a Democrat in the generic congressional race, so that puts them as base Democratic voters," Greenberg, a partner at Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, told Hill.TV's Krystal Ball on "What America's Thinking."

"What we know is that in your coming of age years, from sort of your teens into your early 20s, have a profound, long-term impact on what your partisanship and voting patterns are for the rest of your life," she continued.

"So, not only in this moment are these millennial women heavily, heavily Democratic and heavily hostile to Trump, but it's likely that they are going to sort of be the vanguard of, I think, the feminization of the Democratic Party," she said.


http://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/402705-pollsters-trump-and-gop-are-losing-young-female-voters

[htuttle]

1. The only people who are still republicans under the age of 30

...are racists and those weird incel types. Who are also racists.

[C Moon]

21. Agree 100%.

[paulkienitz]

24. true dat

the red pill / incel cult is a documented feeder path for white supremacism, often the first facet of fascist/reactionary ideology to attract new recruits.

[redstatebluegirl]

28. Uneducated youth, we see them all the time in Oklahoma.

They either dropped out of high school or barely graduated and work in the oil fields. They are hardcore Trumpers. They also intimidate people who disagree with them.

[LandOfHopeAndDreams]

2. That's Why They Continue Coming Up With New Ways To Cheat nt

[Demovictory9]

31. exactly. They will create a law to target young women "no voting in heels"

[lark]

3. My daughter is one of these millenials.

She's always been a Democrat, but was much more of a moderate version than me - up until drumpf. Now she's so energized against him, she's getting people she works with to register and is taking several of them to the polls in the primary and general. He's definitely pushed her leftwards and made her an activist. She also rarely confronts me over being too far left anymore, she's pretty much right beside me, lol. drumpf would super hate this, especially as she and her husband are doing well financially.

[bearsfootball516]

5. I'm the same way, just as a male.

Was pretty much moderate...until 2016. I'm 25 years old and never much cared for politics until a couple years ago. Now, I'm voting straight Democratic and volunteering for the Joe Donnelly campaign. Probably never happens if Trump had never entered the political fray.

[lagomorph777]

11. Thanks for that word from the real world!

[deurbano]

18. My son turned 18 in time for the 2016 general (but not the primary). What a crap first election!

I was in the same situation-- turning 18 in time for the general, but not the primary (back when the voting age had just been lowered)--and I always thought my first election (1972) would be hard to beat in terms of crappy outcomes. (Turns out the Republicans could sink much, MUCH lower into the depths of depravity.)

[Leghorn21]

4. I think this young woman's still in the fold...

...but glad to hear others are moving on!!

[GoCubsGo]

6. Which young woman?

All I see are 50-and 60-somethings.

[Blue_true]

8. The tablecloth woman is 12, at least she acted that age. nt

[TwistOneUp]

16. Look at all of those white faces! Who knew? nt

[Still In Wisconsin]

23. Ah yes, the TRUMP base, fuled by burning rage...

what a lovely bunch.

[calimary]

27. That's no young woman! I don't see anybody in that photo

who even remotely looks like a millennial. My kids are both millennials. Don’t think they’ll EVER be swayed over to that other side. It’s just NOT who they are. And Thank God for that!!!

I told my kids that if they feel like they might ever vote republi-CON, then PLEASE at least wait til after I’m dead.

[Hortensis]

7. If the Democratic Party is "feminized" and sociopolitical

outlook is the single strongest factor in choosing a partner (it is), what happens next? Right now it's about women 56% Democrat or leaning-Dem independent to 44% men.

Will that finally break the hold of white bigots who favor old-fashioned female roles on the GOP, with moderate conservatives -- including minority -- flooding in and taking control? Or will it finally cause formation of a new, more moderate conservative party serving both sexes, leaving the remnant GOP as an increasingly shrunken extremist party?

[Me.]

26. I Think Yes To The Eventual Breaking Of The Hold

of white bigots. Nothing lasts forever and they have been running amok for centuries. Nor do I forsee the formation of a new conservative party. Moderate yes, practical indeed, progressive in that people and their welfare will become important and corruption will no longer have a foothold. There are those who will take that term feminized and try to weaponize it as a way of holding onto power but for all the supposed ascendancy of Comrade Trump and his ilk, the roof is bound to fall for lack of support beams. There is no there, there.

[Hortensis]

30. I agree with your thinking. If it weren't for the

dynamics that resulted in the unthinkable in 2016, an authoritarian, wannabe fascist president, a dutiful-follower Republican congress, and potential packing of SCOTUS, with by far the worst of all a real rise of fascistic thinking and social conservative dominance among right-wing voters, I'd be sure you had to be right. Now I just believe it will probably turn out that way.

This time in 2016, before the hijacking, all polls of voters still showed they were giving Democrats the presidency for sure, the senate also virtually certain, and even possibly the house. This second blue wave is also real and big, but the struggle for national power is huge and continues.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Roughly 28% of millennials seif-describe as liberal compared to 15% of Silent Generation

So that is the ongoing transfer. The Silent Generation was born 1928-1945. As that generation reaches the end of their lifespan the nation becomes steadily more liberal solely via the ideology of the young replacing the people who came of age during Truman and Eisenhower. As the article indicates, late teens into early 20s has a profound impact on lifelong partisanship. The Silent Generation turned 18 with either a Democrat in Truman with low approval ratings throughout the majority of his terms -- despite successful re-election -- or Eisenhower who enjoyed extremely high approval throughout but especially during his first term.

We can be frustrated at the current senior citizen crop for voting Republican and favoring Trump, but it was always going to happen based on the realities of their youth. Obviously it doesn't apply to everyone so whenever I post this topic there are older members of this website who exclaim they are from the Silent Generation yet extremely liberal. Yes, I understand. I deal with percentages and more often than not and big picture explanations. Those explanations really aren't that complicated, as long you don't get carried away with day to day details, which can only serve to distract from foundational realities.

Another reality is that young single women do not show up in midterms. It is typically the most disappointing block of all, and helps contribute to our poor performance in midterms, especially when a Democrat controls the White House and our side is not particularly energized.

[UTUSN]

10. Why would they be even within smell distance of the Repuke party to begin with?!1

[Vogon_Glory]

12. That's great--IF they turn out to vote

That’s great if they register, then vote. Sitting around and dissing the Rethuglies might feel good, but if they follow the foolish example of all too many of their non-voting Texas sisters and brothers and stay home when it counts, the Rethuglies will remain in charge—even without the help of the Russian GRU.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. They will disappoint again

No reason to believe otherwise.

https://www.refinery29.com/2017/05/156740/single-women-equal-pay-voting

"Single women are a very powerful, progressive political force, yet compared to married women, they under-register and don’t vote in as high percentages," says Page Gardner, the founder and president of the VPC. "Part of it is their lives are so stretched and stressed; almost half of them make minimum or sub-minimum wage. The second reason is [that] we make registering and voting somewhat difficult in this country."

***

To be fair, he's a more optimistic recent article from 538, indicating young women may be more engaged this time, because of so many female nominees. I don't like adjustments from the norm so I'm not fully buying it. That block tends to stay home:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-young-women-might-get-more-women-elected/

[bearsfootball516]

19. I'm expecting it to be somewhere between.

They’ll vote at 3 or 4 points higher than usual. It’ll help form the blue wave, but it’s not going to singlehandedly destroy the GOP in November.

[Awsi Dooger]

20. That's a reasonable goal

I appreciate that you have realistic markers and don't get carried away

[NewJeffCT]

13. I just hope they get out and vote in records numbers

this coming November.

[smirkymonkey]

14. K&R

[Scurrilous]

17. K&R

[Still In Wisconsin]

22. So young women don't want a rich old pervert to grab them by the pussy?

Who would have thought? Don't they know their place in society?

[pecosbob]

25. And I'm sure their solution will be to repeal the 19th amendment

[world wide wally]

29. Maybe with a little luck, they won't have the women to reproduce with.

Seems like a natural evolutionary step.