Please just come out and say it: some of you think a black man can't win the Florida governor race

[EffieBlack]

And if that's how you feel, let's discuss.

[mcar]

6. Explain, please

Really sick of the vague "just not this one" complaints on DU tonight.

[Tiggeroshii]

51. What conclusion would you like us to draw from that article?

[NightWatcher]

2. I think both of those threads violate the "Support Dems" terms of service here.

The Primary is now over so it's time to get in line and support whichever Democrat won.

Don't tell us we're idiots for voting how we did.

[WheelWalker]

3. Exactly. I couldn't agree with you more.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

4. .

[NCTraveler]

11. .

[spicysista]

15. My keyboard is toast!

[Agschmid]

34. Lol.

Sadly...

[flying rabbit]

39. ...

Oh fuck.

[malaise]

5. Beware of bots

That is all

[PhilosopherKing]

8. Obama won Florida twice

Hilary lost, Kerry lost, Gore...well we know what happened.

[CentralMass]

54. Well there was that primary in 2008.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. This may be the correct cycle to attempt it

Gillum should help urban turnout but he is a wild card with preference among swing voters. I tried to juggle the variables last week and I mentioned them in a post in the Florida forum...traditional white moderate female versus scandal ridden progressive black male with all the lingo and activist support.

Gillum now needs to show what he is made of. There is a massive difference between rank outsider with no spotlight on you at all, and nominee who will be scrutinized on everything he has ever said or stands for.

The right wing money machines are going to attack Gillum from all directions, and soon. I hope we are aware of that. I live in Miami and the Republican operation here is extremely sophisticated. They are not going to allow this race to settle for a month. I guarantee those commercials and mailers will be showing up almost immediately. If Gillum snoozes like Bill Nelson has, then there's a double digit deficit in a flash.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

23. Had barely heard of him. 3 of the other candidates had blanketed the airwaves in SW Florida.

He's from the other side of the state so he must have concentrated on that area. I just hope he can win. We cannot afford to lose this.

[Awsi Dooger]

33. Gillum wasn't exactly prominent in the Miami area either

I read about him and watched some online spots, but his commercials didn't show up until the final week.

I will say this...Gillum smartly targeted where he played those commercials. I saw them on major sporting events like the preseason NFL games and that PGA golf event with Tiger Woods playing.

He also apparently used Facebook very effectively compared to Graham, from what I've read elsewhere.

[Cha]

10. I don't think that.. I have a couple of tweets for this

thread, though.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[brooklynite]

12. No; I'm not sure a progressive can...

[Atticus]

16. Is anyone SURE who can win? nt

[brooklynite]

18. Sure is not th measure I use...

I start out with cautious concern. I’ll support him (financially) if my model says the race is competitive.

[brooklynite]

26. FWIW: There were 120,000 more R votes than D votes in the GOV Primaries

[mythology]

42. And until 2008, the highest Democratic primary turnout was 1988

And we all know how that led to Michael Dukakis handily defeating George H.W. Bush. Oh wait.

Primary turnout isn't actually correlated to general election turnout.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/02/01/how_much_does_voter_turnout_matter_112990.html

[Atticus]

13. Well, of course not. Everyone knows that. And, no black man could ever be

elected POTUS. And, while we're citing conventional wisdom, Trump will NEVER be POTUS either.

"The way things are" is not "the way things were".

[NCTraveler]

14. Being a woman might hurt worse in Florida.

Kind of a toss up. There are also some advantages to both when talking electorally.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. I had that thought two weeks ago

I posted this in the Florida Forum:

"I noted he had many high profile endorsements, primarily from the Sanders wing.

Mostly I'm concerned about nominating a woman. I know so many guys my age (59) or thereabouts who definitely would consider a scandal-ridden black male above a clean-slate white woman. That may sound ridiculous but it is the way they think.

If we lose another race like 2010 and Alex Sink I'm going to be sick."

[Retrograde]

17. He hasn't - yet

He won the Democratic primary race for governor. There's still the election in November.

I hope he does well. I hope that the people who voted for him today will do so in November, and will encourage their friends and neighbors to do the same. Given Florida's past history with elections I wouldn't celebrate until the last vote is counted and he's sworn in.

[EffieBlack]

20. Which makes this different from every other election after a primary, how?

[WillowTree]

19. If he supports what the people want, why not?

[Garrett78]

21. Florida tends to favor Republicans in mid-terms, so Graham may have been the safer choice.

And then there's the FBI investigation that's linked to Gillum.

On the other hand, there's a large Black population in Florida, and the conventional wisdom might be wrong. Gillum may do better than Graham would have, and hopefully it helps that DeSantis won the GOP nomination. This will be one of the more interesting races to be sure.

[GusBob]

22. It will come down to water

Who is gonna stand up to Big Sugar?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

30. People are royally pissed about the water quality in the Gulf in SW Florida. It's pretty Repub.

Levine had been talking a lot about the environment and how Rick Scott and the Repubs are to blame. Levine and Greene were both accusing each other of supporting Trump - lol! They had a tape of Greene talking about how great Trump was - just glad that ass didn't win.

[GusBob]

36. Both coasts getting hit

A meme I saw on Facebook

__Republican
__Democrat
XClean Water

[peekaloo]

40. Greene was behind most of the negative campaigning.

He didn't even consider Gillum.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. Tweet from University of Florida professor who argues it was correct choice

He insisted it ahead of time, that Democrats could not afford another safe strategic choice like Alex Sink or Charlie Crist:

Link to tweet

[still_one]

27. As far as I am concerned a Democrat one the Democratic primary for Governor in Florida. A Democrat

who happened to also endorse the Democratic nominee in 2016

Now let's work to defeat the trump stooge in Florida

[TomSlick]

28. Come on guys.....

The odds are not relevant. I don't care if the Democrat is a over whelming favorite or underdog. The only answer is to organize and get out the vote.

Let's go Florida! Go team go!

[Awsi Dooger]

46. Small odds shift in favor of Republicans

That's the consensus right now. I've looked at some betting sites. It probably went from a tilt D with Graham to tilt R with Gillum.

Tilt is the lowest edge...maybe 4 points

[bluecollar2]

29. I voted for Him

He had the courtesy to show up for a candidates debate in Homestead...none of the others did.

The only way he doesn't win is if he doesn't get enough votes.

No reason why a black man can't beat a white crook.

[mcar]

35. He was all over the state

That impressed me - he got my vote and I will happily campaign for him!

[MaryMagdaline]

31. Analyzing this with my friend a former repug

Gillum had a statewide showing. Did well everywhere, campaigned well everywhere. He is a good campaigner and obviously knows his state.

It’s on!

[JennyMominFL]

32. Obama

Obama won Florda twice. I dont think Gillum’s race will hurt him noticably

[kimbutgar]

37. I actually thought Barack Obama had no chance

I knew America was still racist, the repukes and the orange maggot just pushed into overdrive .
Somehow President Barack Obama won and my country surprised me.

[democratisphere]

38. Too many old white redumbliCON racists that vote.

A win will be difficult.

[OriginalGeek]

41. I voted for Graham

And I will happily vote for Gillum. I honestly did not care which one won the primary and I think if I had known as much about Gillum before I voted as I have learned since I voted, I probably would have voted for him in the primary.

Lack of due diligence is on me.

[Lady_Chat]

43. I have a question

I was watching an analyst on CNN, he said Gillum won in all the same areas that voted for Hilary in 2016. But Hillary lost in Florida, so I don't know if it depends on a candidates "color" but whether or not his views are popular with voters in Florida. Also, Gillum is supposed to be backed by Bernie Sanders, has any candidate backed by Sanders won office, not just a primary, but elected to office? Thank you!

[JI7]

48. Hillary dealt with the Russian Crap. this time we are more aware and need to consider all that shit.

[R B Garr]

50. Great questions, I'm not in Florida and was also wondering,

but he was only backed last minute by Bernie, and was a delegate for Hillary Clinton and endorsed her, so he looks to be pretty mainstream. This was answered for me in another thread, but I was also wondering.

[FloridaBlues]

44. Yes he can win I hope he puts Graham is lt Gov on his team

[octoberlib]

45. CNN is talking to Gillum right now. He's impressive as hell. I don't live in FL. so wasn't familiar

with him.

[Cha]

52. Andrew spoke at the DNC for Hillary.. I'm getting a crash course in him, too.

[Awsi Dooger]

55. Gillum was indeed terrific with Don Lemon tonight

He needs to get on the air quickly with positive spots. His messaging and delivery are excellent but if he allows DeSantis to dominate the airwaves in the next few weeks it may be too much to overcome.

I always hope Democratic candidates understand the necessity of an early lead in the general election polling. Comebacks are for suckers. This isn't a primary with high percentages of undecideds and lots of soft views. Voters tend to cement early. Outlier examples are meaningless. Get the damn lead and take your chances

[JI7]

47. the problem is Voter Suppression and that applies to any Democrat

what helped Obama is Charlie Crist was Governor the first time around and he did everything to make it very easy for people to vote. he wasn't in office the 2nd time around but Scott also hadn't been in office that long.

Democrats can win but democrats have to work harder to win there.

every fucking democrat needs to come out and vote. republicans will do anything they can to prevent heavily dem areas from voting.

and now we have to deal with putin and shit.

but it's not impossible.

[gldstwmn]

49. I don't think that at all. What I do worry

about is voter suppression.

[AllyCat]

53. I won't say that because I believe he has a great chance.

We need more minorities and women in office. A great, energized candidate can draw voters to the polls who may not feel represented. More voters, a better cross section of our country, voters excited about a candidate that can do good for them and thus, everyone else...that is how we get our country back from the evil that has gripped it. Go Mr Gillum! Congratulations! Florida, you have a chance to be represented by someone great!