GOP Chances to Keep House Fading

[babylonsister]

https://politicalwire.com/2018/09/04/gop-chances-to-keep-house-fading/

GOP Chances to Keep House Fading
September 4, 2018 at 3:58 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard

Nate Silver: “If Labor Day is the traditional inflection point in the midterm campaign — the point when the election becomes something that’s happening right now — then Democrats should feel pretty good about where they stand in their quest to win the U.S. House.”

“Republicans are in their worst position to date in our U.S. House forecast: The Classic version of our model gives them only a 1 in 5 chance of holding onto the House. Other versions of our model are slightly more optimistic for the GOP: The Deluxe version, which folds in expert ratings on a seat-by-seat basis, puts their chances at 1 in 4, while the Lite version, which uses district-level and generic ballot polls alone to make its forecasts, has them at a 3 in 10 chance.”

[NurseJackie]

1. I want them to lose the Senate too. Can't we have both, please?

[babylonsister]

2. I wish!! nt

[BannonsLiver]

3. To borrow a phrase from another time, yes we can.

Pickups in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee would get it done if we hold serve on the seats we already have like McCaskill, Nelson etc.

frankly I think the chances are probably not as grim on that front as some folks around here think. I’m optimistic about it tbh. We have the energy.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. That is looking less and less unlikely.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

Bredeson is picking up an expanded lead lead in Tennessee and Sinema has a surprisingly early 5 point lead on McSally in Arizona. Donnelly has a double digit lead in the latest poll in indiana, WV has been safer and safer as november is closer. The only seats that seem uncertain for us keeping are MO, FL and ND. But TX, AZ,NV and TN look just as precarious for the Republicans. I think we will be able to pull this off but take nothing for granted!!

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Link to full article by Nate Silver

Quoted in the OP but this is the full article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-democrats-are-in-their-best-position-yet-to-retake-the-house/

***

I'm glad Nate wrote a full piece. He should do more of that. Nate explains that he doesn't know why the polls moved sharply in one direction recently, and describes what might follow. He concedes the House model on 538 is too aggressive and tends to overstate swings.

Above all I thought this was most valuable from the article, a chart detailing Democratic chances in the House based on margin nationwide. Nate posted something similar in 2016 which made it clear that Hillary was not in good shape in the electoral college unless she won the national popular vote by 3% or more. That reality did not receive enough attention leading to election day. It was a disaster for Hillary at +1 and unlikely at +2, which is where she ended up.

This is the current House summary on 538 based on national margin and how it projects to seats gained and likelihood of taking the House. Basically, we need a 5+ point national margin for a decent shot at the House, 6+ to start feeling good about things, and 7+ to manage very high likelihood (90+%). Of course, on election night itself it won't be obvious where that stands because California reports late and will tilt the numbers in our favor once the state is finally counted at least a day or so later. We'll be relying on exit polls as forecast of the national margin:

How the popular vote translates into House seats for Democrats per FiveThirtyEight’s Classic model as of Sept. 4, 2018

DEMOCRATIC OUTCOME

POPULAR VOTE MARGIN........PROJECTED SEAT GAIN.............CHANCE OF WINNING HOUSE
14-15 point lead........................+66...........................................>99%
13-14.......................................+61...........................................>99%
12-13.......................................+56...........................................>99%
11-12.......................................+51...........................................>99%
10-11.......................................+46...........................................>99%
9-10.........................................+41...........................................>99%
8-9..........................................+36............................................98%
7-8..........................................+32............................................92%
6-7..........................................+27............................................78%
5-6..........................................+24............................................56%
4-5..........................................+20............................................29%
3-4..........................................+16............................................11%
2-3.........................................+13.............................................. 3%
1-2.........................................+10.............................................<1%
0-1..........................................+7..............................................<1%

[roamer65]

6. I think they are going to pull their money from House races.

They will probably concentrate on the Senate.