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COOK shifts two House races closer to Dem win...
IA-01: Blum Moves From Toss up to Lean Democratic
David Wasserman
Iowa GOP Rep. Rod Blum has consistently been underestimated, and in 2016 he won reelection 54 percent to 46 percent while President Trump carried the district 48 percent to 45 percent. But on Tuesday, the Ethics Committee announced that it was investigating him following a February Associated Press report that he had failed to disclose his role in an internet marketing company.
Blum says the failure to disclose was a simple administrative oversight, but Democrats are already cuing ads calling him part of "the swamp." His bigger vulnerability is that he's a conservative Republican sitting in a labor-heavy district with a strong Democratic heritage (it voted for Barack Obama by double digits twice). Today, both parties' polling depicts him as an underdog for reelection in November.
David Wasserman
Iowa GOP Rep. Rod Blum has consistently been underestimated, and in 2016 he won reelection 54 percent to 46 percent while President Trump carried the district 48 percent to 45 percent. But on Tuesday, the Ethics Committee announced that it was investigating him following a February Associated Press report that he had failed to disclose his role in an internet marketing company.
Blum says the failure to disclose was a simple administrative oversight, but Democrats are already cuing ads calling him part of "the swamp." His bigger vulnerability is that he's a conservative Republican sitting in a labor-heavy district with a strong Democratic heritage (it voted for Barack Obama by double digits twice). Today, both parties' polling depicts him as an underdog for reelection in November.
VA-02: Taylor Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
David Wasserman
On Wednesday, a Richmond circuit judge kicked Independent candidate Shaun Brown off the congressional ballot, dealing a setback to Virginia Beach GOP Rep. Scott Taylor. Taylor's campaign had ham-handedly collected signatures to boost Brown, an African-American who was the Democratic nominee against Taylor in 2016, to split his opposition. But the judge ruled that the petitions contained numerous forgeries and involved "out and out fraud."
Taylor's race against former Naval Surface Warfare officer Elaine Luria was already highly competitive, considering Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam carried the 2nd CD by four points last November. But without Brown, it moves from Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.
David Wasserman
On Wednesday, a Richmond circuit judge kicked Independent candidate Shaun Brown off the congressional ballot, dealing a setback to Virginia Beach GOP Rep. Scott Taylor. Taylor's campaign had ham-handedly collected signatures to boost Brown, an African-American who was the Democratic nominee against Taylor in 2016, to split his opposition. But the judge ruled that the petitions contained numerous forgeries and involved "out and out fraud."
Taylor's race against former Naval Surface Warfare officer Elaine Luria was already highly competitive, considering Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam carried the 2nd CD by four points last November. But without Brown, it moves from Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxvzKQrPHdchZgrGfNflHVbpMXvd
Cook now has 37 races ranked as TOSS-UP or better...
