We shouldn't lump races won by people of color together

[dsc]

There have been four big primary races won by people of color that have begun to be lumped together despite there being very real differences in the races.

First Stacey Abrams won in Georgia whose win was not at all an upset. She was, except for her race, the type of candidate who might well run and win a primary for governor in a state without statewide elected officials of her party. She was minority leader of the state house (for comparison both Senator Hagan of NC and Senator Tillis ran from legislative seats in NC). She led in every poll for her primary and won a decisive and expected victory. She is a slight underdog in her race for governor.

Second Andrew Gillum won the nomination for governor of Florida. He polled behind two other candidates for most of the race but at the end showed some momentum and his win was a fairly decent surprise. His races was four way. Gillum's race is considered a toss up for the general election.

Third you have Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who beat Joseph Crowley who clearly under estimated the danger he was in, in a low turn out race.

Finally, you have Ayanna Pressley who beat a siting congressman who knew he was in trouble.

These races aren't the same. If this were four white candidates I doubt anyone would be lumping these races together. So we shouldn't be doing so simply because they aren't four white candidates.

[bettyellen]

1. I've seen too many attempts to discredit the importance of black voters

To think this OP is smart. All these areas have big constituencies of color and representation matters. I see this flies over the heads of lots of white men. They really don’t get it.

[dsc]

2. even that aspect is different in these races

Both Abrams and Gillum won based on black votes but Abrams also got a significant share of white votes. Pressley also did very well with white liberals in her race (her district is majority minority but has a significant white liberal population). I don't know how AOC did among whites in her race.

[bettyellen]

4. I don't understand the need to ignore the patterns- both women and POC

Are over performing. Women and POC are leading and are the base of the resistance, they’re winning like never before yet pundits and allies both are pretending there isn’t a pattern here.

Women are finally dumping Trump where men stay firm. Black voters are turning out in numbers not seen in years s. There’s a lot of credit we’re failing to give segments of the electorate- trying to pretend it is an anomaly. They don’t get the interest like those rust belt WWC bigots, I guess they’re not exciting enough?

[dsc]

8. Abrams didn't over perform

and frankly I don't think Pressley did either. They won races. Abrams lead from day one and was the type of candidate who normally would run in that kind of race. Gillum and AOC did over perform. I doubt Gillum did better among women than Graham though.

[bettyellen]

10. She is certainly over performing right now. And it's interesting this is so easy to ignore.

Statistically my statements (and O used the present tense- as we are talking big picture here) are correct and yet you minimize their accomplishments w nitpicking.
Yeah, as I said. Don’t get the impulse to be so dismissive.
Never will.

[dsc]

11. It isn't minimizing

in point of fact you are. She was the minority leader of the legislature, she ran in a primary, and she won. That happens often in states in which there aren't statewide officials running. I have no idea if she is over performing in the general election or not. Georgia has been tending our way for awhile, she seems to be doing what Jason Carter did at this point. I think she has a decent chance of winning, better than Jealous in MD for sure. I think Gillum has a better shot than she does but Florida has been heartbreaking for us in recent years. We thought we would be Scott twice and that didn't happen. It will be a test of the theory that having a more liberal candidate can break our losing streak.

[bettyellen]

14. Minimizing the success of black candidates? No, that would be you.

Very funny how you tried to turn that on it’s head and accuse me of “the soft bigotry of low expectations”. I’ve seen this script before. Just not from Dems. Fascinating that you know tons about Abrams except for the fact that she’s currently over performing expectations.

[appalachiablue]

3. Ben Jealous (D) candidate for Gov. of Md., fmr Head of NAACP.

[dsc]

5. I forgot about that one

I also am less knowledgeable about that race.

[appalachiablue]

12. Good man, he won over a more 'establishment' Dem.,

Rushern Baker, and in Nov. will face a fairly popular incumbent Republican, Gov. Larry Hogan since 2014.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-governor-primary-20180626-story.html

There have only been 2 black governors in US history, since Reconstruction with PBS Pinchback in Louisiana in 1872:

The first elected was Douglas Wilder, Governor of Virginia 1990, and Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts 2007.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Wilder

Both are highly accomplished men who've done very well in public and private life. I attended Wilder's 1989 inaugural in Richmond which was wonderful; Mohammed Ali and other notables were there. Wilder's election was a huge deal. He is the grandson of slaves, served as a Marine in Korea, worked as an attorney, served as governor one term which is the Va. limit, and then as Mayor of Richmond. (fmr. capital of the CSA!).

[dsc]

13. Wilder wanted to run for President in 1992

but dropped out when he ran polling that showed a white version of him was leading New Hampshire but he couldn't break single digits. He literally used his biography with a white photo for the polling.

[appalachiablue]

17. Never heard that, bizarre

[RhodeIslandOne]

18. Douglas Wilder looks white in quite a few photos

I mean you could pull up a lot of photos of him and think he was a white man.

Of course that was pre Internet.

[nolabear]

6. I'd want to know how they feel about it.

Seems to me that’s the best way to be helpful.

[Doodley]

7. Obama was the best president in my lifetime, IMO. However white racists were pissed.

As a reaction to Obama, they put the most racist candidate in office, with Russian help. Now Trump is there, I think the pendulum is going to swing back big time as a reaction to his white supremacist agenda. So, I think it.is significant to look at how black candidates are doing as a whole, and as individual elections.

[Wounded Bear]

9. All politics is local, sure...

but to ignore a trend that is rising across the country would be a disservice, too.

Yes, these candidate won primarily by running effective campaigns. But it is telling that across this great country more and more regions are willing to listen to those candidates such that they have a decent chance. 15-20 years ago, that was the case only in limited areas. I don't know that it detracts from their accomplishments to acknowledge that changing demographics and the way we view gender roles is showing up in our politics. It's about time.

[bettyellen]

15. The other trend the OP studiously ignores - 3/4 candidates he cites are women....

And yeah, both those things are related to a huge backlash. That it’s not powered by white men, means it’s very easy to ignore. It seems to scare the shit out of a lot of people.

[Wounded Bear]

16. My state has 2 women senators...

I can't complain on that score.

But I think I'll vote for the incumbant male Rep we have. Nothing against the woman other than experience. If I was in the 8th district, I'd vote for the Dem woman for sure.