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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFlorence Forecast To Become A Major Hurricane; Risk To The East Coast Is Rising
Tropical Storm Florence is quickly approaching the eastern United States, and according to the National Hurricane Center, the storm's threat to the East Coast keeps rising. The storm is traveling over warm water and is expected to increase its speed and become a hurricane by Saturday night.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts Florence will be a dangerous major hurricane near the southeastern U.S. coast by late next week, "and the risk of direct impacts continues to increase."
"However, given the uncertainty in track and intensity forecasts at those time ranges," the National Hurricane Center tweeted, "it's too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those impacts."
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1038443655441330182/photo/1
https://www.npr.org/2018/09/08/645891482/florence-forecast-to-become-a-major-hurricane-and-risk-to-the-east-coast-is-risi
Jersey Devil
(9,874 posts)Been living in North Carolina 2 years now and am learning the priorities.
liberal N proud
(60,332 posts)joshcryer
(62,269 posts)Will be useful for flushing (and drinking if absolutely necessary).
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)joshcryer
(62,269 posts)And it's right next to the toilet.
Obviously you could buy some jugs for drinking water of course.
Thinking about flushing (and potentially hand rag bathing).
safeinOhio
(32,641 posts)water heater.
PCIntern
(25,491 posts)Never thought of that like a moron. Thanks!!
On edit: all those years and never thought to drain it for water .
Cha
(296,875 posts)2x5 gallon buckets for all that.
I had 10 gallons of drinking water, too.
Thankfully we didn't need what we all got to prepare but we were so prepared.
Best of Luck to East Coasters!
unc70
(6,109 posts)Filling the bathtub is generally a good idea, but can be a problem if that is where you hide from tornadoes. There are often swarms of tornadoes produced when hurricanes encounter land. Sometimes you have to make choices.
joshcryer
(62,269 posts)But you really should seek shelter if the hurricane is coming your way, anyway. This is after the storm passes and you return home, you may be living without water and power for days.
Lochloosa
(16,061 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)What's next on the list?
malaise
(268,718 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)My favorite pastry is dry toast with a little honey drizzle. The Florida sun is hot, but not enough to make toast during a power outage, without a special sun toast rig (which I don't have).
malaise
(268,718 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Oh well, I was thinking about some eloborate solar toaster. Guess simple wins out most of the time.
malaise
(268,718 posts)You can sl bake potatoes which works fine with cheese.
TheBlackAdder
(28,168 posts)BootinUp
(47,085 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)with reading material (double as flashlights). I think my husband would prioritize his over his beer. Maybe. He'd know he could fall back on my hard liquor (doubles as an antiseptic).
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)It's heading for a half century since the last time I was saying (insincerely) "uhuh, poor baby, poor baby" after he overindulged around the campfire with friends. It's mostly all mine.
My best disaster preparedness trick I never do: Turn off the power. Some unmet need's bound to reveal itself before long. At least that's what's always happened when the power goes down on its own here.
unc70
(6,109 posts)Hurricane winds, tornadoes, and torrential rains can extend far inland. Hugo hit Charlotte, Fran hit the Raleigh Durham area with hurricane force and winds and nearly 20 inches of rain. My power was out in Chapel Hill for nine days, the water system was shutdown for several days because the treatment facilities were inundated. It was also really hot.
Beer, wine, liquor, toilet paper, diapers, medicines, canned and packaged food, full tanks of gas, etc. Fully charge even old laptops; they can be used to recharge cell phones. Internet was out over a week, cellular service was spotty. True landlines with traditional phones still worked.
The current forecast for Florence is scary. Looks like a good chance somewhere in the Carolinas will get hit, most likely the south coast of NC and then inland. The east coast northward is also at risk. The current location of the Bermuda high is likely to steer Florence towards coastal population centers.
malaise
(268,718 posts)unc70
(6,109 posts)I grew up a little north of Wilmington and a Cat 3 or 4 storm on that track would be very destructive all the way inland to where I now live in Chapel Hill. The 00Z runs of the various computer models look even worse than earlier runs. Most are consistent with the forecast you posted. The GFS has it stalling over Hatteras for about three days.
This site lets you explore the various computer models:
http://tropicaltidbits.com
OneGrassRoot
(22,920 posts)Do either of you know where to access that? I seem to recall that it comes out much less frequently than other forecasts but has been more accurate. The last I saw from a couple of days ago is they were forecasting more Mid-Atlantic, Outer Banks/South VA for landfall.
I've Googled but can't find a site that provides that model's updates.
I'm just south of Raleigh, unc70. I was here for Fran so I vividly recall how important it is to NOT be on the east side of a storm.
It's gonna be really bad for some area though, for sure.
unc70
(6,109 posts)It has all the model data, hurricane hunter observations, and lots more. Most of the computer models have been converging, though everywhere from Savanah to Hatteras is in the 68% cone of uncertainty. The European ensemble still has a wide set of solutions.
The GFS has been really weird. In the recent run, it has Florence stalling as it approaches NC with 140 knot winds, coming ashore a few miles while churning around as a Cat 2/3 with 15-30 inches of rain, then reversing course and heading back towards Bermuda! Doesn't seem likely to me, but stranger things have happened.
All of the models look really bad for most of NC. Sort of a combination of Fran and Floyd, with a bit of Hazel.
ooky
(8,908 posts)joshcryer
(62,269 posts)A stall of 5 days in length that will drop 30+ inches of rain over VA and NC.
If that scenario happens god help them.
unitedwethrive
(1,997 posts)They did an amazing job in Puerto Rico, just ask him.
jcgoldie
(11,613 posts)...if anyone spills their coffee on the counter the president has their back...
krispos42
(49,445 posts)Looks like it will make landfall the day before Flo.
Yay......
peekaloo
(22,977 posts)When forecasters start saying "erratic" and "difficult to forecast" it's time to take any/all precautions. Heard the same about both Katrina and Irma. I have to give a Florida forecaster in Tampa some props for sounding the bell early last week when no one else was calling it. Then again he had it further south and hitting us. Stay safe and smart people!
NOT the blue wave(s) we wanna see!
malaise
(268,718 posts)Batten down folks
dameatball
(7,395 posts)I lived in FL for decades and my pool was almost level with the lanai and maybe just an inch or two lower than the glass sliders.
When Charley came through the pool filled back up almost to the top.
Gothmog
(144,944 posts)malaise
(268,718 posts)Rain will start shortly but we really need it.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Florence, Helen and Isaac. Hope their partying doesn't disturb you and your neighbors.
malaise
(268,718 posts)but it should reach here as a TS unless it does a Florence and reorganizes. Florence may actually pull Isaac above us.
Observe Florence - that one is growing and fast.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Imagine having no better warning than more birds than usual flying in off the Atlantic or some such thing.
Not the biggest consideration, but we were driving up the coastal states this week. Not.
malaise
(268,718 posts)Give me hurricane alley over tornado alley any day of the week.
You know other animals change their behavior when these storms are coming but the birds and the land birds make a lot of noise.
The good is some nice size snapper will be available when the seas calm down.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Here inland, supermarkets make food available.
Seriously, my daughter lives on the edge of tornado alley. They were going to put a shelter under their garage, instead they built an "outdoor room." It's beautiful and gotten good use, 150 guests got to admire it at a recent party, but! Grandma wants a cramped little hole in the ground.
malaise
(268,718 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)We're not as used as you to hurricanes either, though. Coming from California, our first real, personal experience, from a safe distance, was Irma, which we expected to permanently and completely destroy both land and mobile home of the one sitting low on salt water and eventually the other of our properties, which we'd lightheartedly purchased inland 2 hours away so they probably wouldn't both be taken out in one storm. She mostly went over both, suckING most of the water out of neighboring Tampa Bay for one and dumping its billions of tons elsewhere. An astonishing miracle that won't be repeated.
It's still likely the first will fall to rising seas first or developers, though. There's no effort to build sea walls in that town, and we just got warning that a developer is clandestinely trying to buy up enough units to take over our park. Nothing new except the clandestine.
Unless we attack the severe inequality of wealth the way our predecessors did, this is the end of the era when view and waterfront properties were available to citizens of ordinary means. But not the end of ordinary citizens being taxed to protect these properties.
malaise
(268,718 posts)So it will be panic by tomorrow.