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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe GOP Is Sweating Bullets Over Beto O'Rourke
For the last 18 months, the GOP largely dismissed as a liberal fantasy the idea that Rep. Beto ORourke (D-TX) might pose a real threat to incumbent Sen. Ted Cruzs (R-TX) 2018 reelection bid. But with just eight weeks left until election day, the long-held notion that a Democrat cant win statewide in Texas appears increasingly outdated. Polls have continued to tighten, alarming high-profile Republicans and improving the long-shot odds that Democrats could retake the Senate in November.
The Cruz campaign did not respond to Rolling Stones request for comment on the recent developments, but in a campaign stop over the weekend, Cruz warned Texas voters about the prospect of an ORourke victory. They want us to be just like California right down to tofu and silicon and dyed hair, he told an audience in Katy, Texas.
On Monday, CNN changed its rating of the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. That followed a similar update by the Cook Political Report in August, reflecting the belief that the race is more competitive than previously thought.
On Sunday, Rick Tyler, Cruzs former campaign spokesman, told MSNBC that there was a very real possibility ORourke could win. Its possible people say no, its not possible because again you look at Texas and say Its a red state and its never going to happen but Beto ORourke has consistently out-fundraised him 2-to-1, and he doesnt take PAC money.
Panic appears to have spread into the top ranks of the Republican party, with one senior administration official privately fretting that Cruz is not likable enough to hold onto his Senate seat. Office of Management and Budget director Mick Mulvaney made the remark at an event for GOP donors in New York City on Saturday, according to a New York Times report.
Mulvaneys comments came just a few days after another high-profile Republican, this one in Congress, expressed concern that excitement around the Senate race could imperil Republican candidates in down ballot match-ups. It could have an impact there where the races are tighter to have a more energetic Democratic turnout than might have otherwise been the case had we not had that competitive statewide race with Beto and Ted, Rep. Mike Conaway (R-TX) told the Midland Reporter-Telegram. Hes going off in 254 counties and all this kind of stuff.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/beto-texas-cruz-722156/
Dem_4_Life
(1,765 posts)northoftheborder
(7,566 posts)CaliforniaPeggy
(149,308 posts)Le Gaucher
(1,547 posts)He is within margin of voters given 'likely voter's
Unless likely voter models itself is wrong .. Shouldnt we be seeing him ahead given the enthusiasm
Lisa0825
(14,487 posts)but This is Texas, after all and while we may no longer be blood red, we are still on the red side of purple, but we will get there.
Even if Beto loses, he will have been responsible for down-ticket wins, due to the excitement he has brought to Texas Democrats in a mid term season.
Qutzupalotl
(14,230 posts)Cruz is particularly unlikeable and Beto is a rockstar. And Democrats are energized.
NewJeffCT
(56,827 posts)so, polls likely are likely based on prior midterm election turnout for the state, give or take a few for enthusiasm.
Grasswire2
(13,564 posts)And he's a natural.
Cracklin Charlie
(12,904 posts)I like him a lot.
vercetti2021
(10,150 posts)He shines Obama a lot during 2008
Gothmog
(144,005 posts)Takket
(21,425 posts)If the Dems provide a fair and just means of citizenship, there is a good chance Texas turns blue if not in 2020 than certainly by 2024, and if Texas turns blue, the GOP may never control the white house again for the rest of our lifetimes.
the state is already inching towards blue............ their grip is weakening.
appalachiablue
(41,055 posts)MyOwnPeace
(16,888 posts)like to believe what you are saying - it would be wonderful!
Let's hope the "tide" to turn Texas blue starts, like, RIGHT NOW!!!!
pnwmom
(108,925 posts)I'm a total fan girl.
Gothmog
(144,005 posts)The key thing is that no republican expected to have to help Carnival Cruz and critical resources are being diverted from other key races to try to save Carnival Cruz https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/09/ted-cruz-reelection-trump-813354
With ORourke outraising Cruz more than 2-to-1 during the past quarter, right-leaning organizations have begun sending resources to the state. The anti-tax Club for Growth, which spent millions on Cruz during his 2012 Senate bid, has started a seven-figure advertising blitz aimed at tearing down the Democratic congressman. The organization has begun polling the race, and David McIntosh, the organizations president, recently traveled to Texas to meet with donors who could help fund the barrage. More than $1 million has been raised so far, people close to the group say.
I want Beto to beat Carnival Cruz and for the GOP to have wasted so many resources that we hold the seats in red states
R B Garr
(16,920 posts)than 2-to-1. So great to see. He is such a rising star!
NewJeffCT
(56,827 posts)is that the money is not being sent to Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee and elsewhere.
Gothmog
(144,005 posts)House of Roberts
(5,122 posts)they better stay out of the beauty salons on Saturday mornings.
Also, there's as much silicone in Texas as in California. (not silicon)
argyl
(3,064 posts)appalachiablue
(41,055 posts)sandensea
(21,530 posts)Which, of course, is exactly what he is.
appalachiablue
(41,055 posts)sandensea
(21,530 posts)But he definitely has a face for it.
miss-nasty
(251 posts)Munster family in his genes too. His hair turns grey and he's lookin' a whole lot like grandpa Munster. He and Paul Ryan are inbred!
sandensea
(21,530 posts)Of course, their being funny-looking (which they are) wouldn't mean anything if they were decent people who took their jobs seriously and actually represented people.
Too much to ask, I guess.
Trueblue Texan
(2,372 posts)..that makes people realize they hold the same values. Obama is such a communicator. It is so wonderful to have candidates that don't sound like morons.
RobertDevereaux
(1,841 posts)iluvtennis
(19,758 posts)Cha
(295,929 posts)haele
(12,581 posts)Tofu, maybe...but I've been to Dallas/Ft. Worth, Houston, and San Antonio enough times to see a lot of silicon and dyed hair amongst both the gentry and the aspiring gentry in that state.
Especially the Televangelical gentry...
As for tofu in Texas, has he spent any time in Austin? Gone to an HEB?
Haele
ananda
(28,783 posts)And Beto wins !!!!
NewJeffCT
(56,827 posts)Mitt Romney won the state by 16 points in 2012 as well.
In 2012, Ted Cruz raised about $9 million. His Democratic opponent, Paul Sadler, raised less than $150,000
In 2016, Clinton lost Texas by only 9 points, a 7 point improvement over Obama.
In 2018, Beto O'Rourke has raised somewhere north of $23 million through Q2 of this year, compared to Cruz's less than $15 million. All that money is going to help him with GOTV and with countering the blizzard of lies coming from Cruz and national Republican dark money groups.
Remarkable - $23 million versus under $150,000
Given the anti-trump surge nationwide, I think this is definitely a winnable race.