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Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(107,111 posts)
Mon Sep 10, 2018, 09:43 PM Sep 2018

The GOP Is Sweating Bullets Over Beto O'Rourke

For the last 18 months, the GOP largely dismissed as a liberal fantasy the idea that Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) might pose a real threat to incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) 2018 reelection bid. But with just eight weeks left until election day, the long-held notion that a Democrat can’t win statewide in Texas appears increasingly outdated. Polls have continued to tighten, alarming high-profile Republicans and improving the long-shot odds that Democrats could retake the Senate in November.

The Cruz campaign did not respond to Rolling Stone’s request for comment on the recent developments, but in a campaign stop over the weekend, Cruz warned Texas voters about the prospect of an O’Rourke victory. “They want us to be just like California — right down to tofu and silicon and dyed hair,” he told an audience in Katy, Texas.

On Monday, CNN changed its rating of the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” That followed a similar update by the Cook Political Report in August, reflecting the belief that the race is more competitive than previously thought.

On Sunday, Rick Tyler, Cruz’s former campaign spokesman, told MSNBC that there was a very real possibility O’Rourke could win. “It’s possible — people say no, it’s not possible because again you look at Texas and say ‘It’s a red state and it’s never going to happen’ but Beto O’Rourke has consistently out-fundraised him 2-to-1, and he doesn’t take PAC money.”

Panic appears to have spread into the top ranks of the Republican party, with one senior administration official privately fretting that Cruz is not “likable” enough to hold onto his Senate seat. Office of Management and Budget director Mick Mulvaney made the remark at an event for GOP donors in New York City on Saturday, according to a New York Times report.

Mulvaney’s comments came just a few days after another high-profile Republican, this one in Congress, expressed concern that excitement around the Senate race could imperil Republican candidates in down ballot match-ups. “It could have an impact there — where the races are tighter — to have a more energetic Democratic turnout than might have otherwise been the case had we not had that competitive statewide race with Beto and Ted,” Rep. Mike Conaway (R-TX) told the Midland Reporter-Telegram. “He’s going off in 254 counties and all this kind of stuff.”

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/beto-texas-cruz-722156/

34 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The GOP Is Sweating Bullets Over Beto O'Rourke (Original Post) Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Sep 2018 OP
I love it!!! Dem_4_Life Sep 2018 #1
Beto is getting a lot of national media comment!!!!! northoftheborder Sep 2018 #2
This gives me considerable hope for Beto! CaliforniaPeggy Sep 2018 #3
Dont want to get overly pessimistic ..but Beto should be running ahead Le Gaucher Sep 2018 #4
No, it is AMAZING that he is where he is. Yes, it would be great for him to be ahead... Lisa0825 Sep 2018 #6
Previous turnout models might not apply to Beto/Cruz. Qutzupalotl Sep 2018 #24
Texas has been a low turnout state for years NewJeffCT Sep 2018 #29
Beto's a rock star now. Grasswire2 Sep 2018 #5
He's goin' places. Cracklin Charlie Sep 2018 #7
President one day vercetti2021 Sep 2018 #8
Go Beto Gothmog Sep 2018 #9
this is why the GOP is terrified of Latinos.......... Takket Sep 2018 #10
+1 appalachiablue Sep 2018 #16
I would SO much.......... MyOwnPeace Sep 2018 #28
He and his whole family are ADORABLE, aren't they? pnwmom Sep 2018 #11
Inside the GOP's rescue mission for Ted Cruz Gothmog Sep 2018 #12
Great link, Gothmog! Beto outraising Cruz more R B Garr Sep 2018 #27
What's best about them spending money in Texas NewJeffCT Sep 2018 #30
This makes me smile Gothmog Sep 2018 #33
If those old boys are worried about hair dye, House of Roberts Sep 2018 #13
Guess Cruz has never been to Dallas. argyl Sep 2018 #21
Elect the Beto the Best, Texas! appalachiablue Sep 2018 #14
Cruz always looks like a cross between Joe McCarthy and Fulgencio Batista. sandensea Sep 2018 #17
+1 Good one, he doesn't have a strong voice for a pol either, usw. appalachiablue Sep 2018 #20
You're right. Cruz may not have a voice for radio. sandensea Sep 2018 #22
He appears to have some of the miss-nasty Sep 2018 #31
Wouldn't suprise me. sandensea Sep 2018 #34
He is very articulate and can communicate his values in a way... Trueblue Texan Sep 2018 #15
Beto all the way! RobertDevereaux Sep 2018 #18
woohoo! I made another small donation to Beto. GO BETO, GO! iluvtennis Sep 2018 #19
Tough Shite. Cha Sep 2018 #23
Cruz thinks Texans don't have silicon or dyed hair already? haele Sep 2018 #25
Get out the vote !!! ananda Sep 2018 #26
Some numbers; In 2012, Ted Cruz won his seat by ONLY 16 points NewJeffCT Sep 2018 #32
 

Le Gaucher

(1,547 posts)
4. Dont want to get overly pessimistic ..but Beto should be running ahead
Mon Sep 10, 2018, 10:05 PM
Sep 2018

He is within margin of voters given 'likely voter's

Unless likely voter models itself is wrong .. Shouldnt we be seeing him ahead given the enthusiasm

Lisa0825

(14,487 posts)
6. No, it is AMAZING that he is where he is. Yes, it would be great for him to be ahead...
Mon Sep 10, 2018, 10:30 PM
Sep 2018

but This is Texas, after all and while we may no longer be blood red, we are still on the red side of purple, but we will get there.

Even if Beto loses, he will have been responsible for down-ticket wins, due to the excitement he has brought to Texas Democrats in a mid term season.

Qutzupalotl

(14,230 posts)
24. Previous turnout models might not apply to Beto/Cruz.
Tue Sep 11, 2018, 03:27 PM
Sep 2018

Cruz is particularly unlikeable and Beto is a rockstar. And Democrats are energized.

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
29. Texas has been a low turnout state for years
Tue Sep 11, 2018, 05:01 PM
Sep 2018

so, polls likely are likely based on prior midterm election turnout for the state, give or take a few for enthusiasm.

Takket

(21,425 posts)
10. this is why the GOP is terrified of Latinos..........
Mon Sep 10, 2018, 10:50 PM
Sep 2018

If the Dems provide a fair and just means of citizenship, there is a good chance Texas turns blue if not in 2020 than certainly by 2024, and if Texas turns blue, the GOP may never control the white house again for the rest of our lifetimes.

the state is already inching towards blue............ their grip is weakening.

MyOwnPeace

(16,888 posts)
28. I would SO much..........
Tue Sep 11, 2018, 04:28 PM
Sep 2018

like to believe what you are saying - it would be wonderful!
Let's hope the "tide" to turn Texas blue starts, like, RIGHT NOW!!!!

Gothmog

(144,005 posts)
12. Inside the GOP's rescue mission for Ted Cruz
Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:07 PM
Sep 2018

The key thing is that no republican expected to have to help Carnival Cruz and critical resources are being diverted from other key races to try to save Carnival Cruz https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/09/ted-cruz-reelection-trump-813354

The push reflects a broader anxiety within the party about the electoral environment this fall. It also has practical implications for the GOP: The resources devoted to Cruz include money that could otherwise be used to oust vulnerable incumbent Democrats in red states like North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri.

With O’Rourke outraising Cruz more than 2-to-1 during the past quarter, right-leaning organizations have begun sending resources to the state. The anti-tax Club for Growth, which spent millions on Cruz during his 2012 Senate bid, has started a seven-figure advertising blitz aimed at tearing down the Democratic congressman. The organization has begun polling the race, and David McIntosh, the organization’s president, recently traveled to Texas to meet with donors who could help fund the barrage. More than $1 million has been raised so far, people close to the group say.

I want Beto to beat Carnival Cruz and for the GOP to have wasted so many resources that we hold the seats in red states

R B Garr

(16,920 posts)
27. Great link, Gothmog! Beto outraising Cruz more
Tue Sep 11, 2018, 03:49 PM
Sep 2018

than 2-to-1. So great to see. He is such a rising star!

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
30. What's best about them spending money in Texas
Tue Sep 11, 2018, 05:02 PM
Sep 2018

is that the money is not being sent to Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee and elsewhere.

House of Roberts

(5,122 posts)
13. If those old boys are worried about hair dye,
Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:16 PM
Sep 2018

they better stay out of the beauty salons on Saturday mornings.
Also, there's as much silicone in Texas as in California. (not silicon)

sandensea

(21,530 posts)
17. Cruz always looks like a cross between Joe McCarthy and Fulgencio Batista.
Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:56 PM
Sep 2018

Which, of course, is exactly what he is.

miss-nasty

(251 posts)
31. He appears to have some of the
Tue Sep 11, 2018, 05:13 PM
Sep 2018

Munster family in his genes too. His hair turns grey and he's lookin' a whole lot like grandpa Munster. He and Paul Ryan are inbred!

sandensea

(21,530 posts)
34. Wouldn't suprise me.
Tue Sep 11, 2018, 08:53 PM
Sep 2018

Of course, their being funny-looking (which they are) wouldn't mean anything if they were decent people who took their jobs seriously and actually represented people.

Too much to ask, I guess.

Trueblue Texan

(2,372 posts)
15. He is very articulate and can communicate his values in a way...
Mon Sep 10, 2018, 11:22 PM
Sep 2018

..that makes people realize they hold the same values. Obama is such a communicator. It is so wonderful to have candidates that don't sound like morons.

haele

(12,581 posts)
25. Cruz thinks Texans don't have silicon or dyed hair already?
Tue Sep 11, 2018, 03:31 PM
Sep 2018

Tofu, maybe...but I've been to Dallas/Ft. Worth, Houston, and San Antonio enough times to see a lot of silicon and dyed hair amongst both the gentry and the aspiring gentry in that state.

Especially the Televangelical gentry...

As for tofu in Texas, has he spent any time in Austin? Gone to an HEB?

Haele

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
32. Some numbers; In 2012, Ted Cruz won his seat by ONLY 16 points
Tue Sep 11, 2018, 05:15 PM
Sep 2018

Mitt Romney won the state by 16 points in 2012 as well.

In 2012, Ted Cruz raised about $9 million. His Democratic opponent, Paul Sadler, raised less than $150,000



In 2016, Clinton lost Texas by only 9 points, a 7 point improvement over Obama.

In 2018, Beto O'Rourke has raised somewhere north of $23 million through Q2 of this year, compared to Cruz's less than $15 million. All that money is going to help him with GOTV and with countering the blizzard of lies coming from Cruz and national Republican dark money groups.

Remarkable - $23 million versus under $150,000

Given the anti-trump surge nationwide, I think this is definitely a winnable race.

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