General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSo my 86 year old dad has decided to ride out Florence
He lives in Belhaven NC which is right on the Sound. I'm worried. Current forcast models put Florence ashore South of him but he's well inside the margin of uncertainty.
I don't know what to tell him. He says he's going to stay. My concern is the storm surge and also the rain flooding. His house is roughly 3 feet above sealevel and FEMA raised it by 5 feet in 2001 so the living room floor is roughly 10 feet above sea level. I think the Sound would eat some of the storm surge so even if the surge is 14' he'd have a lot less where he is.
I'm also worried that if I convince him to evacuate (which I'm wishing I could actually but can't seem to) he might end up put himself in a worse situation. He might go to Raleigh and end up in a flood because it might get more rain or his passage back home which ended up mostly clear might get blocked by flooding.
Thoughts?
Roland99
(53,342 posts)I do hope hes in solid and high enough up housing
jimlup
(7,968 posts)he'll be in the N/NE quadrant
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)jimlup
(7,968 posts)I'll suggest it in my call to him in the morning.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)likely medical care.
It looks like the window to get there is tomorrow.
PJMcK
(22,034 posts)We have a rental house on Ocracoke Island and my mother-in-law has a house in Nags Head. EVERYONE HAS LEFT! It's really dangerous.
I hope the best for your dad.
HopeAgain
(4,407 posts)He needs to find a shelter on higher ground. Nothing you can do to protecg your property in the middle of the storm.
bdamomma
(63,837 posts)but you're Dad is stuck in his ways, you can't get another life, you can always replace material things. All the best to your dad.
teenagebambam
(1,592 posts)MY mother rode out a storm in Daytona years ago because she was "tough", the ended up on the third floor of a building with no power, and she was unable to climb the stairs. How far are you away? Anyway you or a closer neighbor can just strong arm him into leaving?
Mariana
(14,854 posts)Kidnapping is a felony, you know.
Takket
(21,562 posts)mountain grammy
(26,619 posts)In Galveston who rode out Alicia, and she and boyfriend were in their 40s. Beg him to get out.
femmedem
(8,201 posts)I wonder if he doesn't trust his driving skills anymore and is worried about driving long distances. Maybe he would be willing to leave if he had help.
Does he have any medical conditions which might impair his decision making?
jimlup
(7,968 posts)He's on the other side of the Sound from the ocean so that is why he won't have quite as much of a hit. I'm investigating this. He's thinking he's riden them out before and so he'll ride out this one BUT this one is different!
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)That's just nuts, if he really is interested in surviving.
The Pungo River there looks like it is going to be a funnel. Even if the storm surge is lower on the sound side than the ocean side, that surge is going to be whipped by the wind on that quadrant of the storm across the sound and into the mouth of the Pamlico River. From there, it's got nowhere to go but up.
Irene was a smaller version of this effect there:
https://ncseagrant.ncsu.edu/coastwatch/previous-issues/2011-2/holiday-2011/inner-banks-take-a-beating-storm-surge-surprised-many/
Bandy says some people may have underestimated the threat from the storm surge after Irene weakened near the North Carolina coast. The hurricane was downgraded from Category 3, with sustained winds from 111 to 130 miles an hour, to Category 1, with winds from 74 to 95 miles an hour. Surge is one of the things you cant associate with the category of the storm, he says.
Tim Buck, Pamlico County manager, said the damages tab had already reached $70 million by late September. He agreed that people relaxed their guard after the storm was downgraded. We all breathed a sigh of relief when we heard that forecast, he says. But the storms slow crawl through Pamlico County just brought the water in on us, he adds.
As the hurricane passed over the coast, winds out of the east and southeast pushed water into the Neuse and Pamlico rivers with devastating results. Some waterfront homes in Pamlico and Beaufort counties were obliterated, leaving nothing but lumber piles and foundation blocks. Surviving structures had to be gutted because of initial water damage or mold. Jumbled piles of discarded furniture, mattresses, carpets and keepsakes lined roads weeks after the hurricanes wind and water were long gone.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Look at this:
It goes "extreme" on the west side of the sound, because all of that water gets pushed into the mouths of those rivers.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)Still I'm not comfortable with this storm
Dorian Gray
(13,493 posts)Please try to convince him to take shelter if he doesn't want to leave the general area. It'll be tough, but he'll be with a medical team and food.
Are you close enough to go get him? Or do you have anybody who can drive him to a shelter?
enough
(13,256 posts)quite a bit about what he may be dealing with. Hes very lucky to have you to discuss it with, but if he hears your concerns and makes his decision, so be it.
When I was responsible for my very old parents and parents-in-law, I sometimes had to realize I was trying to protect them from something they didnt want to be protected from. A life protected from all risk is hardly a life.
Now that Im getting older myself (74) I feel this even more strongly than I did then.
MousePlayingDaffodil
(748 posts)At that age, it's his call, and it should be respected.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Sure it's his call (and no one is arguing otherwise), but I'll be damned if I respect an idiot decision.
dem4decades
(11,282 posts)First responders lives in jeopardy.
He's lived a full life, i doubt that he'd want to potentially end someone else's.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Once all hell breaks out, no matter how desperate the 911 calls become, no one will respond to evacuation areas.
That said, we all make our own decisions in life. Some good. Some bad.
But here in Florida it is no joke. If you are in an evacuation area, and do not evacuate, you are on your own.
ecstatic
(32,685 posts)in the position of having to worry and panic, and then, in a worst case scenario, accept a sudden and preventable loss, followed by years of guilt?
Sure, we all have the right to let our lives end whenever, but in some ways it's selfish.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)You of course are worried about him. But it's always nice to see people who are still brave and accepting of risks as they get older and more fragile. And running perhaps takes more energy than they're willing to invest. Too many react by becoming overly timid and even constantly fearful instead. I hope that'll never be us.
Mariana
(14,854 posts)he would be royally pissed off about any attempts to manipulate him into changing his mind. He lives on the Gulf Coast on an island, and he has in fact made the very same decision as the OP's dad more than once.
The attempted guilt trip (e.g. "You know you'll endanger the lives of rescue personnel!" ) would be the very least effective way to convince him. Dire warnings of certain death (e.g. "You better write your SSN on your skin with a Sharpie, so they can identify your corpse!" ) wouldn't work any better. Dismissing his concerns (e.g. "The cat isn't that important, just leave it!" ) isn't likely to get anywhere, either.
stonecutter357
(12,695 posts)so sad !
catrose
(5,065 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,647 posts)especially if he's only 10 feet above the water. Don't forget that the waves will be on top of that level. That means he could be several feet below the water line soon. The sound might actually enhance the amount of surge.
I wish you and yours the best of luck.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)I'm really not sure of that. That is one of the things I'm checking. He does have a 2nd story so he should be able to go up. He's moving his car to a place that is 9feet above sea level. I'm also going to check the actually height of his lvingroom floor above sea level so I can best advise him tomorrow.
http://publicradioeast.org/post/coastal-scientist-predicts-widespread-storm-surge-florence
ADCIRC forecasts that the western part of Pamlico Sound and areas along the New River, White Oak River, Neuse River and Tar River can expect 10-15 feet of storm surge.
But as also mentioned, that "10-15 feet" is the baseline. The waves are on top of that, along with whatever shrimp boats or other vessels happen to be slamming through the living room wall.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)Is he concerned about surviving or not? Some people do reach a point where it's not that much of a priority.
It's not just the water and the wind. There are going to be boats, trailers and anything that floats or flies whipping through there.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)I'll talk very seriously to him tomorrow morning.
Because the idea that it's better where he is than on the other side of the sound is just plain wrong. Someone else also posted some info from Irene - which was Category 1.
Notice the "extreme" zones marked here:
the water goes up the rivers.
Marrah_Goodman
(1,586 posts)and possibly the grief of his death.
Sometimes folks just need to be shown a different way of thinking about things. I am sure he thinks he will be fine, but if he looks at it as how he will affect his loved ones he might change his mind.
I am sorry you are going through this.
Mariana
(14,854 posts)The OP knows Dad better than anyone here.
Blues Heron
(5,931 posts)Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene, which swept up the East Coast of the United States from August 27-30, 2011, is expected to rank among the 10 most costly natural disasters in US history. After making landfall as a diminished category 1 hurricane near Cape Lookout, Irene passed over Swan Quarter, about 15 miles East of PamlicoRiver.org's St. Claire Creek observation station, around mid-day on August 27. The storm surge on the Pamlico River was the greatest in living memory. The surge caused extensive damage on the Neuse and Pamlico rivers, with significant damage to >50% of piers near St. Clair, tornados in Belhaven and epic flooding in Aurora. The 9.5 foot storm surge in Oriental is documented by the Town Dock. Irene destroyed more than 1100 homes in North Carolina. Trees and signs were down everywhere, streets blocked, homes flooded and power out to millions of customers on the East Coast. Flood damage was particularly extensive in Vermont.
As illlustrated below, the surge at St. Clair Creek began to build on the evening of the 26th of August. The full width-half max of the surge goes from 6 am through 3 pm on the 27th, indicating 9 hours of flood conditions during daylight. The surge was over 5 feet above the highest water level observed over the past 18 months and 7.6 feet above the average level for 2011. The surge was followed by an equal duration collapse in water level, ultimately below the sensor level. Post storm the water level in the Pamlico was about 15 inches above the pre-storm level, where it remains a week later.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)gives me an idea of what the surges might be. My dad is weathy enough that FEMA raised his house so he's up quite a bit still it could be well beyond what he is prepared for. I'll give him a very hard set of questions on Wednesday morning.
zipplewrath
(16,646 posts)If he's high enough he'll be fine immediately. After that, what's his capacity to live without power for several days?
jimlup
(7,968 posts)lindysalsagal
(20,678 posts)can just take him out without asking him. It's easy to say they'll stay while they have everything they need. But when the floor disappears and all the water is poisoned and there's no fresh food to eat, no light at night, it's already too late for a fixed mind to escape their own limitations. The misery could last weeks with a storm this big.
Call local officials. He'll be angry but he'll be alive.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)I think staying is a bad, and potentially deadly decision.
But I see old age creeping up on me. Unless obviously suffering from dementiia I will be damned if I support physically removing someone from their home. Older people should be allowed to make their own horrible decisions same as stubborn young people.
Its his life and home. Try your best to convince him to leave. But in the end, it is his decision.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Do you think people lose free will at a certain age?
My mother was perfectly in control of her own mind when she died at 90. And nobody could make her do anything she didnt want to do.
Mariana
(14,854 posts)Please, use the correct word. What you've described is kidnapping.
lunasun
(21,646 posts)If he is not prepared try to get him to a shelter area where group help is for the surge . Tell him if you don't think he is prepared but if he is wish him luck and remind him of any group help you know in the area so if his intentions change last minute he will have the info.
Imo
kwassa
(23,340 posts)Hatteras. A category 1. All the damage was on the soundside because of the way the winds circled. Six foot surge on the sound. Many locals has homes there that were not elevated, and were flooded, unlike the elevated tourist cottages on the seaside.
Ilsa
(61,694 posts)You need to force him out, I think. I'm not sure how.
Be sure to ask him if his funeral plans have been documented and paid for.
Be sure he has his meds.
moriah
(8,311 posts)Yes, the amount increases inland along rivers and inlets as winds may push the surge up the inlets, but that's still enough predicted surge, combined with rain, that Belhaven is really not in a good position. I'd feel safer with the barrier islands there if I were him compared to property owners on Bogue Banks, but it looks like the barrier islands protecting the inner bank towns will also be inundated.
If he does stay, I would wish he was technically adept enough to be able to get several USB battery blocks and charge them up for cell phone use, or if nothing else to conserve battery have him turn it off except for two calls to you a day or emergencies. If you could tell him just what to get at WM so he'd have some backup phone juice, I would.
Parents will do what they will do, and when my Dad rode out Fran *in* Wilmington, only obeying the evacuation enough to take over his mother's house while she was smart and went to relatives in the mountains (vs him staying in his rented condo on Wrightsville Beach)... first story flooded, in town in Wilmington, because the house was too close to the river. My grandmother was frantic mainly because she couldn't keep in good contact with her. I wasn't much better.
So tell your Dad to please check in with you regularly if he stays, and find the websites with county and city law enforcement phone numbers in case you worry enough to need someone to check on him.
But I don't think there's going to be as much life-threatening danger involved in evacuating, even with inland flooding considered, than is involved in trying to "ride it out". Resources wherever he goes will be scarce, but police will be able to get to him more likely. And that map is just surge, not rain along with it.
nolabear
(41,959 posts)Im not kidding. Hes in danger. I know stories about too many people who drowned in Katrina because they couldnt get out of their attics.
Really, I know where he is. He needs to get to a shelter or get out. They wont know where he is or might not be able to get to him for days.
B2G
(9,766 posts)Hurricanes rotate counter clockwise, so water will be driven into the sound. And its going to be moving slow, possibly stalled. And there will be large waves of top of that. They are conservatively estimating 6-9 foot surges. It will be higher in places. Again, with very large waves on top of that. If it comes in at high tide, that will make it even worse.
He really needs to go inland.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)B2G
(9,766 posts)Try not to worry too much. Will keep you both in my thoughts.
phylny
(8,379 posts)My husband was in South Carolina on a business trip and called his 93-year-old father in New Bern yesterday to see if he and his wife could meet him as he traveled north out of South Carolina and husband would bring them up here. Father-in-law refused. Today, he called my husband in a panic, asking him to come get them. It was impossible, as my husband was already on his way north - all roads led north and the exit ramps south were closed. So, my husband called his step-brother to see if the four of them wanted to try to travel north (we're in Virginia, but out of the danger zone).
Once someone gets it in their minds that they want to stay, it's hard to change their minds. I wish my F-I-L had heeded husband's warning yesterday when husband could have changed his route to pick them up.
moondust
(19,972 posts)are getting the hell outta there according to General Honore of Katrina fame on MSNBC.
stonecutter357
(12,695 posts)tammywammy
(26,582 posts)He needs to make sure to have an axe for his attic and wrote his name, SSN, and next of kin on his arm in black sharpie.
Mariana
(14,854 posts)has any victim of a natural disaster ever actually been identified from information written on the skin with a Sharpie?
tammywammy
(26,582 posts)It would make identification easier.
Mariana
(14,854 posts)that someone was identified that way.
tammywammy
(26,582 posts)RobinA
(9,888 posts)a Sharpie. The zillion times Ive heard this repeated, no one ever forgets the Sharpie part. No other marker will do, it HAS to be a Sharpie. I think this whole thing was made up by the Sharpie people, and they pay people to tell people on the Internet that if theyre going to hang around a hurricane, they have to write ID on themselves WITH A SHARPIE!!!
Damn. We lost Mom in the storm and it took forever for them to identify her because she wrote her social security number on her arm with a water proof Crayola instead of a Sharpie.
Totally Tunsie
(10,885 posts)Niagara
(7,595 posts)I hope that you can reason with him when you call him.
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)I hope that you can convince your Dad to consider the shelter.
lpbk2713
(42,753 posts)I've been through more hurricanes than I can remember. One thing I know for sure, if I was half his age and if I lived close to the water I would get the hell out of there. There is nothing to slow the storm down as it travels over all that water. And it will do no good to call 911 during the height of the storm. Emergency services do not go out in the worst of it. Please keep us advised.
still_one
(92,152 posts)there
pbmus
(12,422 posts)I have worked and volunteered many storms thru Florida, Texas, and Wisconsin....
Project hope thru team Rubicon....
If the person wants to live....please convince him to leave...
Doodley
(9,088 posts)alphafemale
(18,497 posts)Maybe a grandchild could be more persuasive?
kozar
(2,109 posts)Mrs Koz and I just returned last evening from Myrtle for the exact same circumstances. Her 93 year old father is refusing to leave, we packed up Daughter Koz, and car Monday at noon, and made the 7 hour trip. Half way there, heard of the evac order, called hotel and they confirmed we would need to be out by Tuesday morning.
We begged pleaded, cried, I talked to law enforcement, landlords,and anyone else to no avail to get him to come with us. There are no words for to describe how empty we feel, Mrs K lost mom,sister, and uncle last year to death and she is exhausted. We drove home with a million others yesterday, the 7 hour drive took 13 hours.
We are still making phone calls and trying, but he is set on riding this out.
You are forward in our thoughts Jim, we do understand the anguish.
Koz
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,338 posts)First of all, condolences to you and Mrs K.
Another way of putting it: Jim lost wife and others last year. And he's 93 years old. Perhaps he's just exhausted, empty, all the stuff you're feeling (times 100).
As long as the phones work, convey your love and chat about old days.
Who knows? The storm may actually help him.
kozar
(2,109 posts)and thank you. we do talk with him daily. here's hoping all works out well,
Tardislass
(86 posts)They are telling people not to go west as that is where the rain will come. I have relatives in their 70s, who have rode out most of the previous hurricanes or been away on vacation. The last big hurricane, they were tempted to stay even though an evacuation notice was posts. Luckily, they decided a day before to go to the local shelter and said it was the best decision they made. They were warm and dry, had food and more importantly had electricity.
They were very lucky as the shelter stopped admitting people the night they arrived. It wasn't fun for them but they were with others and not alone. Please, please get family or friends to move him. It's not fair to the first responders and others.
Tardislass
(86 posts)It looks as if he's in the red area for warning.
Doodley
(9,088 posts)Mariana
(14,854 posts)March Dad out at gunpoint? Whack him on the head? Tie him up and gag him? Chloroform?
cwydro
(51,308 posts)I disagree.
Doodley
(9,088 posts)Do too little and to regret forevermore. This is serious. The OP asked for advice and my advice is to do whatever you must do before it is too late.
Mariana
(14,854 posts)Committing various felonies against him (assault, abduction, kidnapping, etc.) to force him to leave against his will is an evil thing to do.
If the old man had a medical condition and chose to decline a treatment that might (or might not) save his life, would you advise the same thing, because "this is serious"? This situation isn't really much different than that.
mnhtnbb
(31,384 posts)indicates that residents in flood prone areas of town should evacuate.
http://belhavennc.us/uploads/documents/pdf/belhaven_state_of_emergency_florence.pdf
If he needs help, it may not come for him.
He also needs to think about losing power--possibly for a week or more--and what that means without refrigeration and a/c in heat and humidity after the hurricane passes by.
I live in downtown Raleigh. The latest I've seen is 40+ mph wind gusts for us here and only 1-2" of rain. Downtown has all underground power lines. I'll be surprised if we lose power, or if we do, they'll have it restored quickly because it is the state capital.
You should go get him.
mnhtnbb
(31,384 posts)Someone has posted that wave height inside the hurricane was measured at 83 feet this morning, which could translate to 20 foot waves hitting the shoreline.
He needs to get out of there.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211124708
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)and further rationalize that decision's consequences by saying "well, it's just me that will be hurt."
Which is abjectly wrong. Family will be hurt. Emergency res ponders may be hurt.
He's being selfish at a cost to other people.
Iggo
(47,549 posts)He gave up his car keys 6 or 8 years ago, and not too long after that we rescinded his ladder and rooftop privileges.
But he was swinign' an ax last weekend and I saw him riding a beach cruiser yesterday.
The guy has a purple heart from a frickin' knife fight on a PT boat.
There's only so much we can tell him he can and can't do.
redwitch
(14,944 posts)Iggo
(47,549 posts)Dad was in the Air Force in Korea. (Actually, I think when he joined it might have been the Army Air Corps, but it became the Air Force before he shipped out, or while he was over there...or something.)
Anyway, he was a radio operator for the Air Force, assigned to a PT boat. This boat would travel up the river close enough to see the MiGs take off and Dad would radio back how many and what direction, and then the boat would get the fuck outa there.
The bad guys figured it out, and one night they were waiting for them. Several guys slipped up onto my Dad's boat and there was a huge scrum, my Dad got stabbed in the shoulder, and he never gave any details beyond that other than our guys won that one.
redwitch
(14,944 posts)Im sure it was awful so he probably didnt want to dwell on it.
Niagara
(7,595 posts)incident as well. Sometimes I can learn a thing or two from other people's stories.
Yonnie3
(17,432 posts)The 11 am, 12 September map shows 3 to 9 feet inundation in the area of Belhaven. The map shows Belhaven is on the Pungo River rather than on the sound.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152637.shtml?inundation#contents
He will be in for up to 24 hours of 40 to 50 MPH wind, followed by another 24 hours of lesser winds, almost all from the east.
I've seen posts in this thread which talk of much higher water and winds, apparently quoting the worst case in the warning area. These conditions I wrote above will be lesser if the storm tracks more to the south and worse if it tracks more northerly. It is not a good situation, but I wanted you to know the actual predictions for Belhaven.
Cold War Spook
(1,279 posts)I am not going anywhere. My wife took our great-grandson and went to Alabama. She wanted me to go with her, but I told her I would rather be in a hurricane than Alabama. I lived in Margate Fl during Andrew, earthquakes in CA and sandstorms in Turkey and didn't leave. Just because we have a lot of years behind us does not mean we are senile. The only thing I told her to do was if she finds my body, bury me in the backyard so she can keep getting my Social Security and VA disability. After 75 years, cheating death is the only fun left.
irisblue
(32,968 posts)salin
(48,955 posts)I appreciate your spirit and sentiment.
That said, again, be safe.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)mnhtnbb
(31,384 posts)even though Belhaven is about 30 miles north of New Bern, but similar geography with a river inlet situation.
Hope your dad decided to leave. It's going to be a mess. Please let us know.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)He listened to his friends who also decided to stay. We're trying to get in touch with him right now.
Thanks for your concern!
B2G
(9,766 posts)It's really rough up there.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)Wasn't so bad where he was. He was far enough North.
Still I'm going to read him the riot act about what if it had hit further North!
Totally Tunsie
(10,885 posts)After this, you'll never be able to convince him in a future storm!
We had good news from my son also - all's safe and sound near Charleston (so far).
mnhtnbb
(31,384 posts)Glad to hear he's ok.
If he lost power, hope he gets it back quickly.
B2G
(9,766 posts)CentralMass
(15,265 posts)Response to jimlup (Reply #92)
Name removed Message auto-removed
mnhtnbb
(31,384 posts)Last edited Sat Sep 15, 2018, 04:32 PM - Edit history (2)
Found this info on The Weather Channel's website about Belhaven:
jimlup
(7,968 posts)those houses are not raised like my dad's is and they will be seriously flooded. Those are good strong people and they need our help.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)but fortunately, it was a bit exaggerated. Most of the middle class homes in the area are raised. My dad is middle class so his worries are over. I'm sure the poor folk who "don't matter" suffered badly in this storm in that area...
My brother was able to reach my dad last night. He's fine and past the worst of it. My dad will do what he can to help those less fortunate than he is. He's a sure blue democratic voter so we need him!