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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,705 posts)
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 08:17 AM Sep 2018

***BREAKING *** Democrats jump out to 14 point lead generic ballot in A rated Quinnipiac poll *

American voters back Democratic candidates over Republicans 52 - 38 percent in races for the U.S. House of Representatives nationwide, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

Independent voters back Democrats over Republicans 50 - 35 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds.

Democrats lead by a narrow 48 - 42 percent among men and by a wide 55 - 35 percent among women. White voters are divided as 48 percent go Republican and 45 percent go Democratic. Democrats lead 84 - 7 percent among black voters and 64 - 22 percent among Hispanic voters.

American voters disapprove 72 - 18 percent of the job the U.S. Congress is doing. There is no listed party, gender, education, age or racial group which approves of Congress.

Congress should be more of a check on President Donald Trump, voters say 58 - 27 percent. Republicans say 62 - 11 percent that Congress is doing enough to check the president, the only listed group to feel that way.

But voters say 56 - 36 percent they would not like to see Congress begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump.

"By a 14-point margin, Americans would rather vote for the Democratic candidate in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives



https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2568-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/



*Here’s The Best Tool We Have For Understanding How The Midterms Are Shaping Up

If you’re interested in how the 2018 midterm elections will go, you may want to keep an eye on the generic congressional ballot, one of the best tools for predicting how many U.S. House seats each party will win

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-tool-we-have-for-understanding-how-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/




_________________________________________________________________________________________________


DON'T BOO, VOTE !
37 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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***BREAKING *** Democrats jump out to 14 point lead generic ballot in A rated Quinnipiac poll * (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 OP
Kicked and recommended. Uncle Joe Sep 2018 #1
No complacency! barbtries Sep 2018 #2
We need to set our sights on the Senate! GOTV in every state! lagomorph777 Sep 2018 #15
Thanks for posting this...great news. K&R Demsrule86 Sep 2018 #3
And we are not running generic candidates, we running a fantastic team grantcart Sep 2018 #4
So everyone get out there and vote for a Generic Democrat?? NurseJackie Sep 2018 #5
Providing DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #8
Please reread the article and articles on the science of polling...and what this generic poll means. Fred Sanders Sep 2018 #12
Without actual candidate's names for specific races it's just a "weathervane". I'm very... NurseJackie Sep 2018 #14
You are confusing "general" with "generic". And one poll can not ask a specific candidate Fred Sanders Sep 2018 #16
No I'm not. NurseJackie Sep 2018 #18
So you're taking it personally that polling experts.... RhodeIslandOne Sep 2018 #19
I'm doing no such thing. NurseJackie Sep 2018 #20
"Nice backhanded slap" RhodeIslandOne Sep 2018 #21
I see what you're doing. NurseJackie Sep 2018 #22
What???? RhodeIslandOne Sep 2018 #23
I'm doing no such thing. NurseJackie Sep 2018 #25
How do you know that it "doesn't account" for people hating Congress? Bradshaw3 Sep 2018 #26
It's up to them to show that it does. NurseJackie Sep 2018 #28
So the answer is no, you don't have anything to back it up Bradshaw3 Sep 2018 #29
I don't need to. NurseJackie Sep 2018 #30
Here is the peer reviewed research DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #36
The generic ballot is a rough proxy for how well a party is doing at the congressional level. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #31
More than a bit on the optimistic side Awsi Dooger Sep 2018 #32
"Your 54-45 is a good reasonable goal." DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #33
Fred, here is the peer reviewed research DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #35
Encouraging, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.... mountain grammy Sep 2018 #6
Providing DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2018 #7
White voters STILL favour republicans? knightmaar Sep 2018 #9
I'll celebrate that when the day after midterms we have majorities bitterross Sep 2018 #10
Don't cheer, vote! Wounded Bear Sep 2018 #11
Dont Cheer .. Volunteer Le Gaucher Sep 2018 #13
I am likewise concerned about this poll. PoindexterOglethorpe Sep 2018 #17
Bush was re-elected decisively? RhodeIslandOne Sep 2018 #24
Well nothing is for sure... Adrahil Sep 2018 #27
This is all great, but we still have 2 months DFW Sep 2018 #34
K&R Scurrilous Sep 2018 #37

barbtries

(28,702 posts)
2. No complacency!
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 08:52 AM
Sep 2018

every vote counts. GOTV

i love this news but must take it with a grain of salt. to defeat all the dirty tricks and straight up cheating we must have a massive turnout. historical. and so important.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
5. So everyone get out there and vote for a Generic Democrat??
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:28 AM
Sep 2018


This is a lazy man's poll. If we want a better idea of how candidates are doing... specific regions... specific races... etc... we need polling info that has data about ACTUAL CANDIDATES. Only then can we know where to concentrate money, ads and GOTV efforts.

These generic "we're in great shape" polls promote complacency, IMO.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,705 posts)
8. Providing
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:43 AM
Sep 2018

Providing generic ballot information and individual race polling information are not mutually exclusive. I do both, as any review of my posting history would reveal.

Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
12. Please reread the article and articles on the science of polling...and what this generic poll means.
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:45 AM
Sep 2018

"By a 14-point margin, Americans would rather vote for the Democratic candidate in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives." Underlining..."in their local race".

Why is that not a valid and highly relevant polling question?

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
14. Without actual candidate's names for specific races it's just a "weathervane". I'm very...
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 11:22 AM
Sep 2018
Underlining..."in their local race".
Without actual candidate's names for specific races it's just a "weathervane". It's a lazy way to poll. Why not go ahead and ask: "Do you prefer John or Jim? Who will you vote for the Democrat Mary Smith or the Republican Jane Jones?"

I'm very pleased with how the prevailing winds are... but all this "generic" crap is pretty much meaningless because, generally speaking, people often say they "hate congress" and "throw the bastards out". However, that's a sentiment that they typically reserve for someone ELSE'S representative or senator. They hate all of Congress, except for their OWN representative.

Generically speaking, they "love" Democrats right now... generically speaking they think they "prefer" Democrats... that's what they say when given an ethereal and nebulous and vague question that emphasizes party and not candidate. What they actually do in the voting booth will more than likely be to re-elect the Republican (the devil they know, a familiar name, the one with the most TV ads and lawn signs) the one who brings home the bacon.

Again, I love the optimism, but I'm just not willing to put much stock in it.

Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
16. You are confusing "general" with "generic". And one poll can not ask a specific candidate
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 11:29 AM
Sep 2018

question in each district....that would be 400 questions...

The science is real and used predictively by real statistical scientists.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-a-new-less-volatile-version-of-our-generic-ballot-tracker/

😀

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
18. No I'm not.
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 12:33 PM
Sep 2018
And one poll can not ask a specific candidate
question in each district....that would be 400 questions...
That's why it's flawed. They should be asking specific questions to specific voters in specific regions for each race of interest.

The science is real and used predictively by real statistical scientists.
Nice backhand slap. I see what you did there.
 

RhodeIslandOne

(5,042 posts)
19. So you're taking it personally that polling experts....
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 12:51 PM
Sep 2018

....and statistics analysts actually see this as a valuable tool, negating your rant that you don’t believe it holds any weight?

Grow up.

 

RhodeIslandOne

(5,042 posts)
21. "Nice backhanded slap"
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 01:00 PM
Sep 2018

That scientists who work in this field accept it as a legitimate tool for predictive analysis?

 

RhodeIslandOne

(5,042 posts)
23. What????
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 01:39 PM
Sep 2018

Pointing out that you are taking offense that your personal dislike for this kind of poll is negated by the fact this is considered LEGITIMATE STATISTICAL DATA????

I have no idea what the inside joke is here, but I really don’t care if you’re offended that you think you’re being called dumb for rejecting math!

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
25. I'm doing no such thing.
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 02:06 PM
Sep 2018
you are taking offense
I'm doing no such thing.

LEGITIMATE STATISTICAL DATA?
It may be legitimate. It may be statistical. It may be data. But fails to account for the fact that people "hate congress" (in theory) but "love their own" (in practice) when it comes time to vote.

I really don’t care if you’re offended
I think it's pretty obvious that someone can recognize an insult without necessarily being offended by it.



Bradshaw3

(7,455 posts)
26. How do you know that it "doesn't account" for people hating Congress?
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 02:29 PM
Sep 2018

Have you studied the analyses? The data? Or know that such polls inspire "complacency"? Any data on that? Any links which show that?
Or are you just giving opinion as if it's fact?

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
28. It's up to them to show that it does.
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 02:44 PM
Sep 2018
Any data on that?
It's up to them to show that it does... not me to prove that it doesn't.

These types of "generic" polls are Pollyannish and excessively optimistic... the "Keep Calm and Carry On" feel-good predictions achieve nothing and will most likely result in voter complacency a continuance of the status quo. Let's have some real data, head-to-head... let's see THOSE numbers and let's put our efforts where they're needed most.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
30. I don't need to.
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 03:08 PM
Sep 2018
So the answer is no, you don't have anything to back it up
I don't need to. If the polling orgs had taken these things into consideration, they'd have proudly let us know. Yet... not a word. That tells me everything I need to know. Pollyanna polls like this only give us a general idea of the direction of the prevailing breeze... when it comes to individual races, they're totally useless.

But I suppose they do make some people happy, so there's that I guess.

I'll stick with the experts.
Keep Calm and Carry On

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,705 posts)
31. The generic ballot is a rough proxy for how well a party is doing at the congressional level.
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 03:14 PM
Sep 2018

This is straightforward political science.


If a party is doing well in the generic ballot they are likely doing well in individual races, though gerrymandering works against Democrats. OTOH in a wave election the gerrymandering might harm the Republicans. Instead of having one +10 congressional district the Republicans created two + 5 congressional districts. In a plus nine environment they might have won one, now they lost two.




P.S. This poll is a bit on the optimistic side. If the Dems win 56% of the vote on 11/6 they will flip the Senate, House, and a bunch of governors and state legislatures. I will settle for a 54% -45% or so split.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
32. More than a bit on the optimistic side
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 04:14 PM
Sep 2018

I would tap out on Republicans +11. I don't think people realize how difficult each additional point becomes, once it reaches beyond 7 or 8. Now you are asking people to vote either against their natural tendencies, or in greater dependability than the norm in midterms.

It is hardly like a primary, where likeminded people quickly reach the same conclusion and avalanche in the same direction late. Often that's why people become overly optimistic toward November, because they have just witnessed -- for example -- an Andrew Gillum rally out of nowhere in the primary. They project the same thing happening in the general election, like a free flow of water. Meanwhile, those blocks are largely locked in place and aren't going anywhere late.

That's why it is so vital to establish the mindset and the trends early. Even if I realize this 14 point gap is nonsense it is still valuable in the big picture. Once normalcy is restored later, the other side is nervous and scrambling to regain votes. I don't want it down to 4 with our side forced to nervously scramble.

Your 54-45 is a good reasonable goal.

mountain grammy

(26,571 posts)
6. Encouraging, but let's not get ahead of ourselves....
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:42 AM
Sep 2018

Plenty of ratfucking going on. Pay attention. Plenty of scared white folks out there and right now they're in power in too many precincts.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,705 posts)
7. Providing
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 09:42 AM
Sep 2018

Providing generic ballot information and individual race polling information are not mutually exclusive. I do both, as any review of my posting history would reveal.

 

bitterross

(4,066 posts)
10. I'll celebrate that when the day after midterms we have majorities
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:10 AM
Sep 2018

Until then, these are just numbers at a point in time that don't really mean as much as many would like to think.

Wounded Bear

(58,440 posts)
11. Don't cheer, vote!
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 10:44 AM
Sep 2018


All good news, of course, but I think it was a dose of complacency in '16 that got us Trump.

Enjoy the good news for a minute, then get back to work.

 

Le Gaucher

(1,547 posts)
13. Dont Cheer .. Volunteer
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 11:01 AM
Sep 2018

Knock on Doors, talk to people on behalf of your candidates.

Host coffee at your home..

Anything to spread the word..and get more people involved

We can't rest one bit

PoindexterOglethorpe

(25,750 posts)
17. I am likewise concerned about this poll.
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 11:55 AM
Sep 2018

First off, there are a LOT of undecideds, more than enough to shift the final vote back to Republicans in general.

Also, no one ever votes for a generic Republican or Democrat in a given race. They vote for or against specific candidates. Yes, the wording of the question was "In your Congressional district" but I'm still not completely confident or even hopeful at this point.

I recall all too clearly the many, many stories I saw back in 2004 about how so many who'd voted for Bush four years earlier had no intention of voting for him again. The end result? Bush was re-elected about as decisively as any election is decided in this country.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
27. Well nothing is for sure...
Wed Sep 12, 2018, 02:42 PM
Sep 2018

But there is a very clear correlation between the generic ballot and the election results overall.

WE are gerrymandered all to hell, and that will play in here, but this is cause for optimism..... but we must keep working.

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