General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums***BREAKING *** Democrats jump out to 14 point lead generic ballot in A rated Quinnipiac poll *
Independent voters back Democrats over Republicans 50 - 35 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds.
Democrats lead by a narrow 48 - 42 percent among men and by a wide 55 - 35 percent among women. White voters are divided as 48 percent go Republican and 45 percent go Democratic. Democrats lead 84 - 7 percent among black voters and 64 - 22 percent among Hispanic voters.
American voters disapprove 72 - 18 percent of the job the U.S. Congress is doing. There is no listed party, gender, education, age or racial group which approves of Congress.
Congress should be more of a check on President Donald Trump, voters say 58 - 27 percent. Republicans say 62 - 11 percent that Congress is doing enough to check the president, the only listed group to feel that way.
But voters say 56 - 36 percent they would not like to see Congress begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump.
"By a 14-point margin, Americans would rather vote for the Democratic candidate in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2568-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/
*Heres The Best Tool We Have For Understanding How The Midterms Are Shaping Up
If youre interested in how the 2018 midterm elections will go, you may want to keep an eye on the generic congressional ballot, one of the best tools for predicting how many U.S. House seats each party will win
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-tool-we-have-for-understanding-how-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/
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DON'T BOO, VOTE !
Uncle Joe
(58,112 posts)Thanks for the thread DemocratSinceBirth
barbtries
(28,702 posts)every vote counts. GOTV
i love this news but must take it with a grain of salt. to defeat all the dirty tricks and straight up cheating we must have a massive turnout. historical. and so important.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Demsrule86
(68,352 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)Led by a fantastic group of women
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)This is a lazy man's poll. If we want a better idea of how candidates are doing... specific regions... specific races... etc... we need polling info that has data about ACTUAL CANDIDATES. Only then can we know where to concentrate money, ads and GOTV efforts.
These generic "we're in great shape" polls promote complacency, IMO.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)Providing generic ballot information and individual race polling information are not mutually exclusive. I do both, as any review of my posting history would reveal.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)"By a 14-point margin, Americans would rather vote for the Democratic candidate in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives." Underlining..."in their local race".
Why is that not a valid and highly relevant polling question?
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)I'm very pleased with how the prevailing winds are... but all this "generic" crap is pretty much meaningless because, generally speaking, people often say they "hate congress" and "throw the bastards out". However, that's a sentiment that they typically reserve for someone ELSE'S representative or senator. They hate all of Congress, except for their OWN representative.
Generically speaking, they "love" Democrats right now... generically speaking they think they "prefer" Democrats... that's what they say when given an ethereal and nebulous and vague question that emphasizes party and not candidate. What they actually do in the voting booth will more than likely be to re-elect the Republican (the devil they know, a familiar name, the one with the most TV ads and lawn signs) the one who brings home the bacon.
Again, I love the optimism, but I'm just not willing to put much stock in it.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)question in each district....that would be 400 questions...
The science is real and used predictively by real statistical scientists.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-a-new-less-volatile-version-of-our-generic-ballot-tracker/
😀
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)question in each district....that would be 400 questions...
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)....and statistics analysts actually see this as a valuable tool, negating your rant that you dont believe it holds any weight?
Grow up.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)That scientists who work in this field accept it as a legitimate tool for predictive analysis?
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Charming.
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)Pointing out that you are taking offense that your personal dislike for this kind of poll is negated by the fact this is considered LEGITIMATE STATISTICAL DATA????
I have no idea what the inside joke is here, but I really dont care if youre offended that you think youre being called dumb for rejecting math!
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Bradshaw3
(7,455 posts)Have you studied the analyses? The data? Or know that such polls inspire "complacency"? Any data on that? Any links which show that?
Or are you just giving opinion as if it's fact?
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)These types of "generic" polls are Pollyannish and excessively optimistic... the "Keep Calm and Carry On" feel-good predictions achieve nothing and will most likely result in voter complacency a continuance of the status quo. Let's have some real data, head-to-head... let's see THOSE numbers and let's put our efforts where they're needed most.
Bradshaw3
(7,455 posts)I'll stick with the experts.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)But I suppose they do make some people happy, so there's that I guess.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)This is straightforward political science.
If a party is doing well in the generic ballot they are likely doing well in individual races, though gerrymandering works against Democrats. OTOH in a wave election the gerrymandering might harm the Republicans. Instead of having one +10 congressional district the Republicans created two + 5 congressional districts. In a plus nine environment they might have won one, now they lost two.
P.S. This poll is a bit on the optimistic side. If the Dems win 56% of the vote on 11/6 they will flip the Senate, House, and a bunch of governors and state legislatures. I will settle for a 54% -45% or so split.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I would tap out on Republicans +11. I don't think people realize how difficult each additional point becomes, once it reaches beyond 7 or 8. Now you are asking people to vote either against their natural tendencies, or in greater dependability than the norm in midterms.
It is hardly like a primary, where likeminded people quickly reach the same conclusion and avalanche in the same direction late. Often that's why people become overly optimistic toward November, because they have just witnessed -- for example -- an Andrew Gillum rally out of nowhere in the primary. They project the same thing happening in the general election, like a free flow of water. Meanwhile, those blocks are largely locked in place and aren't going anywhere late.
That's why it is so vital to establish the mindset and the trends early. Even if I realize this 14 point gap is nonsense it is still valuable in the big picture. Once normalcy is restored later, the other side is nervous and scrambling to regain votes. I don't want it down to 4 with our side forced to nervously scramble.
Your 54-45 is a good reasonable goal.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)We were 52-44 in 2006.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)mountain grammy
(26,571 posts)Plenty of ratfucking going on. Pay attention. Plenty of scared white folks out there and right now they're in power in too many precincts.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,705 posts)Providing generic ballot information and individual race polling information are not mutually exclusive. I do both, as any review of my posting history would reveal.
knightmaar
(748 posts)What. The. Fuck.
bitterross
(4,066 posts)Until then, these are just numbers at a point in time that don't really mean as much as many would like to think.
Wounded Bear
(58,440 posts)All good news, of course, but I think it was a dose of complacency in '16 that got us Trump.
Enjoy the good news for a minute, then get back to work.
Le Gaucher
(1,547 posts)Knock on Doors, talk to people on behalf of your candidates.
Host coffee at your home..
Anything to spread the word..and get more people involved
We can't rest one bit
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,750 posts)First off, there are a LOT of undecideds, more than enough to shift the final vote back to Republicans in general.
Also, no one ever votes for a generic Republican or Democrat in a given race. They vote for or against specific candidates. Yes, the wording of the question was "In your Congressional district" but I'm still not completely confident or even hopeful at this point.
I recall all too clearly the many, many stories I saw back in 2004 about how so many who'd voted for Bush four years earlier had no intention of voting for him again. The end result? Bush was re-elected about as decisively as any election is decided in this country.
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)Compared to 2000, maybe.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)But there is a very clear correlation between the generic ballot and the election results overall.
WE are gerrymandered all to hell, and that will play in here, but this is cause for optimism..... but we must keep working.
DFW
(54,056 posts)Let's not gloat too soon