538 model gives Democrats 34.3% chance of regaining senate

[Awsi Dooger]

Newly posted this afternoon. The House model has been out for a month and now at all-time high of 82.9%.

The 34.3% may not sound great but it is considerably higher than most other mathematical models. Others were as low as 12% until recent polling gains pushed them into the 22-26% range:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

[unblock]

1. given how heavily stacked against us the map is this cycle, this is actually phenomenal!

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Exactly, and I hope more people realize that

Long term logic has always pointed to extremely difficult terrain for Democrats in the senate this cycle, given number of seats defended and where they were.

To break even seemed a long shot, let alone actually gain.

I knew the 34.3% wouldn't be reason for rejoice but it's like a 14 point NFL underdog steadily improving its roster and its power rating all the way down to 5.5 point underdog

[bearsfootball516]

2. Honestly, that's pretty good.

[RhodeIslandOne]

3. Momentum is on our side

[Midnight Writer]

5. Momentum is important. When folk look around and see their friends jumping ship, they think again.

With two months to go, the Democrats could peak at just the right moment.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. I wonder what they would have said in 2006.

It was a very similar situation then. Exact same map.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. The 018 map is more daunting

In 06 both parties had the same amount of seat up for grabs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2006

[Tiggeroshii]

12. Right, but what were the chances the Democrats would gain just enough to win back the Senate?

I feel like they would have a better chance now because the states they won to get control now have significant battle chests for the incumbents. 6 seats needed then vs 2 now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Every close race in 06 broke our way except TN.

[Tiggeroshii]

16. Which is incredible.

I feel that a 538 model would call those chances pretty slim. Holding 4 red state seats in Nebraska, North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia, while picking up seats in Montana, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania , Rhode Island and Missouri would have seemed a tumultuous task.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. You made a better point about 2006 than I realized initially

I didn't remember the 2006 senate odds and couldn't find them in my workbooks. But I googled a couple of times and found a related article.

Republicans were considered to hold greater than 80% chance of retention until early October, when it dropped to low 70s%. Note the article:

http://ritholtz.com/2006/10/odds-of-gop-retaining-congressional-control/

Now check this link from within the article. I thought for sure it would be dead. I almost didn't click on it. After all, Tradesports is long gone. What was the likelihood of a functioning link with odds from 12 years ago?

But there it is, the betting odds chart indicating the theoretical odds and how they shifted over an entire year, from October 2005 to October 2006:

On edit: Forget about that link here. It won't paste correctly. But go within that original link and find "Senate Trading" and click on the "Ts_trading" link immediately below. That will bring up the Tradesports box in a tiny window at top left of your screen.

I would caution that Nate Silver was not involved at that point. His model changed political perspective and odds. Unfortunately, as a gambler. It was cupcakes prior. Other sources have borrowed Nate's methods and gamblers have absorbed the basics. Not nearly as many bargains. It is very possible if not likely that Nate would have been considerably lower on GOP retaining control at this point in 2006.

[Tiggeroshii]

17. Thank you!

I never realized until recently how big of a deal thay was.

[OrlandoDem2]

7. Every Democrat and left-leaning Independent must crawl over glass to vote.

We must win the Senate to block any other court nominations!

[Hortensis]

11. Heck, if 3/4 just take 15 minutes on the way to or

from work or the supermarket, we'll sweep the nation.

Heck, just young voters turning that 1 out of 5 from 2016 into even 2.5 out of 5 would do great things. There are a whole bunch of them.

[brooklynite]

9. If you look at the 1 to 1 races, the Dems are ahead for all incumbents, plus NV/AZ pickups...

...which by my math gives us 51-49

[LandOfHopeAndDreams]

10. We Need To Send A Message By Taking Senate Too

I think there's a shot, so long as Russia or the voting machines don't fix things. That worries me. They're acting like they can get away with anything, as if they somehow have things locked up.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Predictwise at 23%

But they were 12% a couple of weeks ago:

https://markets.predictwise.com/politics/14978-2

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Here is the related Nate Silver article

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-are-favorites-in-the-senate-but-democrats-have-two-paths-to-an-upset/

This is the daunting portion from Nate Silver:

"But our model thinks that even an 8- or 9-point advantage would probably not be enough for Democrats to win the Senate. Instead, they would need around an 11-point advantage in the House popular vote before becoming favorites to claim the Senate, our model estimates."

<snip>

"Or, the Democrats could win by means of the micro path and just have the coin come up heads in a lot of the toss-up races, even if the overall political environment isn’t any better for them than we’re currently projecting. In our Classic forecast, there are 11 seats that each party has at least a 10 percent chance of winning: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia. Democrats need to win eight of those 11 to take the Senate."

<snip>

"In fact, we’d bet against both of our forecasts being right simultaneously! There’s a greater than 50 percent chance that either Republicans win the House or Democrats win the Senate by the time we get to Election Day."

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Dropped 2%

Now down to 32.5%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

Shouldn't be unexpected. The math-based models tend to move toward one another and 538 was much higher than most on debut yesterday.