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LAS14

(13,783 posts) Mon Sep 17, 2018, 04:31 PM Sep 2018

Yayy!!!! Rosen in Nevada is now in a tie.

A Gravis Marketing poll released on Monday found that 47 percent of voters said they would select Rosen if the elections were held today and 45 percent said they would vote for Heller. That was within the poll's margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

The momentum has been steadily in her favor. She one of our seven cliff-hanger candidates we've budgeted for this season.

5 replies

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Yayy!!!! Rosen in Nevada is now in a tie. (Original Post) LAS14 Sep 2018 OP

Not sure why we are celebrating a tie Awsi Dooger Sep 2018 #1

That's not been what I've seen. The best poll I could find... LAS14 Sep 2018 #3

Because she has been consistently behind. This has not been considered... LAS14 Sep 2018 #2

That's not what I've seen Awsi Dooger Sep 2018 #4

Now, I will concede that midterms are uphill in Nevada Awsi Dooger Sep 2018 #5

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

1. Not sure why we are celebrating a tie

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Mon Sep 17, 2018, 04:40 PM

Sep 2018

Rosen has led most polls, is a 60/40 favorite in the betting markets, and likewise 59.8% likely according to the 538 senate model.

Tie race is a setback

LAS14

(13,783 posts)

3. That's not been what I've seen. The best poll I could find...

Reply to Awsi Dooger (Reply #1)

Mon Sep 17, 2018, 04:45 PM

Sep 2018

... up through last week was that she was within one point. Real Clear Politics average is Rosen 42.7 and Heller 42. When I looked a month ago Rosen was behind by 3 or 4 points.

LAS14

(13,783 posts)

2. Because she has been consistently behind. This has not been considered...

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Mon Sep 17, 2018, 04:42 PM

Sep 2018

... a probable flip to blue. I call a tie good news in that situation.

I meant this reply to be to Awsi Dooger

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

4. That's not what I've seen

Reply to LAS14 (Reply #2)

Mon Sep 17, 2018, 04:52 PM

Sep 2018

Heller is trading at 38 cents on Predictit. That is on a 100 scale

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7635/Will-Dean-Heller-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Nevada-in-2018#data

RealClearPolitics has Rosen +.7% in its compilation

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

538 has Rosen 59.9% likely to win with projected vote share of 49.5% to Heller's 47.6%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/nevada/

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

5. Now, I will concede that midterms are uphill in Nevada

Reply to LAS14 (Original post)

Mon Sep 17, 2018, 04:57 PM

Sep 2018

I lived there for 24 years. Rurals and reds will vote dependably while Democrats need more of a shove.

Harry Reid fortified the Clark County turnout machine about a dozen years ago while looking ahead to his 2010 re-election race during a midterm He knew that would be extremely difficult with Republicans desperate to embarrass him at the end of his career. Fortunately he got a nutcase opponent in Sharron Angle and overcame a poll deficit to win.

This time Democrats should be more motivated than typical in a midterm because the governorship seems likely for the first time in ages

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