A bad poll for Texas mid-terms

[Honeycombe8]

Not meaning to focus on bad news, but I think it's beneficial to know the whole story, not just the good parts.


Texas Democrats need a big turnout to win. Polls suggest they won't get it.

It's become an old cliché that elections "come down to turnout." While that may be exaggerated in most places, it's definitely not in Texas. Democrats need voters who don't traditionally vote to cast a ballot this year in order to to win, and it's not clear that they will in 2018. This could cost Democrats on both the Senate and House sides.

A new Quinnipiac University poll of the Texas Senate race finds Republican Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democrat Beto O'Rourke by a 9-point margin. That's Cruz's best poll in over two months, and an increase from his 6-point advantage last month in the Quinnipiac University poll.

Some of this change could be statistical noise, but Quinnipiac also changed the population it was polling between surveys. They went from registered to likely voters.

Not all voters actually cast a ballot in an election. That's why it's important to poll the subset of voters who actually will.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/18/politics/texas-likely-registered-voters/index.html?utm_term=image&utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2018-09-18T23%3A20%3A03&utm_medium=social

The Quinnipiac poll is at https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2570

I am hoping Beto wins this thing. But this poll is not good news. They need to GOTV there...some surprise voters. Maybe young people? Women? The poll says women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O'Rourke.

I wonder how they identify likely voters? I'm a likely voter in reality, but because I moved last year and voted in the one local election we had, I may not be on any 'likely voter" list. Maybe I am. I don't know how they identify the likely voters.

[nycbos]

1. Young voters don't vote.

Abbott is going to win the Governors race by 20 points.


There is no way there are that many cross over voters.

[Garrett78]

12. Yeah, the gubernatorial race is problematic for Beto.

It's hard to believe he can get enough support from the Abbott voters.

[at140]

2. Texas nut is not ready to be cracked yet,

but demographics are changing and it is coming.

[vercetti2021]

3. We aren't giving up

Working hard down here and it's one poll. Means nothing.

[Honeycombe8]

6. It is just one poll. I hope people down there know what's at stake and show up. nt

[vercetti2021]

7. Hope so too

They'll show up. Boils down if our side cares enough to actually get out and vote.

[BannonsLiver]

4. Meh

The only poll that matters is the one done on Election Day. The CNN writer assumes Dems won’t have a high turnout on Election Day based on this poll when in reality there is no more volatile component to an election than turnout. We simply don’t know what it will be and won’t know until it happens.

[Honeycombe8]

5. I hope that's the case. And it's just one poll. nt

[beachbum bob]

8. listen for a democrat to win in Texas, all democratic voters must vote, no surprise here at all

[Demovictory9]

9. a few days ago NPR had a segment about non-voters. I think they talked to Hispanics in Texas

Texas doesn't turn blue because of low Hispanic voting rates... from what i recall.

[Time for change]

10. Pollsters determine "likely voters" based on statistical modeling using data from previous elections

But statistical associations that apply in one election may not apply in others. For example, black people usually have lower turnout than the general population. But when Obama ran in 2008 black turnout was higher than it was for the general population. Therefore, Obama would be likely to exceed expectations compared to models of "likely voters" in that election.

So, in this case it's possible that groups of people who typically display low voter turnout may be exceptionally motivated by O'Rourke. If so, models of "likely voters" would likely underestimate his performance. "

Also of importance is the issue of voter suppression. To the extent that voter suppression is used, groups who were targeted for suppression would exhibit lower voter turnout. Data from those elections would be used to statistically model future elections, which would make it seem as if those people were less likely to vote, when in fact their attempting to vote may be just as high or higher than the general population. The target of voter suppression efforts are almost always Democrats.

[Honeycombe8]

11. Thanks. I hope your 2nd paragraph turns out to be the correct one. nt

[dalton99a]

13. +1

[eleny]

14. Time to make another donation to Beto's campaign