First 'Likely Voter' Quinnipiac Poll show Ted Cruz up 9 on Beto O'Rourke

[egbertowillies]

The Quinnipiac University Poll of Texas major state races shows Cruz ahead of Beto O'Rourke by 9 points. Supporters must double down as likely voter polls do not capture new voters are reactivated, voters. I am not sure how accurate any likely vote model will be this year.

https://egbertowillies.com/2018/09/18/quinnipiac-poll-show-ted-cruz-9-beto-orourke/

[saidsimplesimon]

1. After my near total faith

in polls that Mrs. Clinton was a sure winner, I'm fighting like we are down by 10 in every race. just my opinion

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Polls were right about Clinton

[mythology]

5. The polls in the last two weeks showed Clinton up nationally by 3 points

She won nationally by about 2 points. The polls were right.

[Generic Other]

2. Scott Dworkin Democratic Coalition tweeted otherwise

"BREAKING: New poll shows Beto up by 2 points on Ted Cruz."

Link to tweet

[budkin]

4. Doesn't mean crap

"Likely voter" is mostly land lines and old people.

[bearsfootball516]

6. Statistically, those are the most likely voters.

[mythology]

7. Incorrect

If you look at the Quinnipiac report it clearly states both landlines and cell phones were polled and weighted for demographics. Just dismissing things you don't like doesn't make them any less true.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Surveys are conducted in English or Spanish dependent on respondent preference with live interviewer

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/tx/tx09182018_demos_tpfn20.pdf/


The poll seems off to me but not for the reasons you cited. I suspect the race is closer.

[TeamPooka]

8. Quinnipiac are the best at this. It's Texas. Fight hard, GOTV but its always an uphill battle

there.