Alternate possible theory on Kavanaugh

[grantcart]

First of all my preference is that Dr. Ford make her statement and answer any questions proffered by Senators only and then drive up to Maryland and make a criminal complaint against Kavanaugh.

An alternate possibility is that McConnell, who said "send anyone but Kavanaugh" knows that he can't persuade Trump and instead wants to send a message to Trump and get Kavanaugh out of the perpetual news cycle as fast as he can and get a new clean nominee up as soon as possible.

It is possible that McConnell is feigning support but wants a quick vote because he knows that it will fail and the prospect of the drip drip drip of bad Kavanaugh news over the next 6 weeks will be over and this may be critical for their desperate grasp to keep the majority in the Senate.

It would clear the bad news over the next 6 weeks where even if they move forward with a vote more accusers could come forward.

More significantly it would be a flare to the Whitehouse to not try and take action without consulting them.

If there is a big blue wave in November Mitch McConnell will have a lot of power over Trump. Even if the Republicans are in the minority they will hold the final swing vote needed to get to 66 to remove Trump.

McConnell may feel that he has no choice but to have a vote to keep Trump placated but wants Kavanaugh gone and a Gorsuch type nominated so that he could be quickly confirmed without the negative slimy baggage.

If they hold a quick vote and Kavanaugh is not confirmed it won't be an accident, it will be what McConnell wanted.



I really never hated another group of Americans as these.

[JoeOtterbein]

1. Good point! n/t

[DemocracyMouse]

2. Makes sense, but not a sufficiently evil portrait of the Turtle

[grantcart]

6. Just because they are evil doesn't mean they don't know how to play the gam

[NanceGreggs]

3. Interesting theory.

:kick:

[California_Republic]

4. Agreed. Quick vote and let it be over.

[Hekate]

5. Makes as much sense as anything

Have I mentioned lately how much I hate Republicans in Washington DC? I hate them more than Nixon. I hate them more than BushCheney. It is stunning how awful they are.

[Silver Gaia]

7. Thank you, grantcart. I've been thinking the same thing.

Yesterday, a grim-faced McConnell said something like, "We WILL vote on Brett Kavanaugh. Up or down, we will vote." That struck me as an oddly uncharacteristic thing for him to say, since he is known for not letting votes come to the floor that he knows they can't win. But he said "up or down." That made me think he was saying he was not sure they could win this one at this point, whereas prior to this, he had insisted they had the votes. I put a mental booknote there, like Rachel's "put a pin in that."

This evening, I started to think along the same lines as you, and this piece I'd pinned makes sense in line with this idea. Today, he's back to saying he thinks they will win, but he has to say that. Yesterday, his armor cracked a little.

So, thanks for voicing this idea tonight. I think we may be onto something here. This may very well be a way for McConnell of saving face and placating Trump while achieving his original goal of "anyone but Kavanaugh." We shall see..

[grantcart]

15. If the hired hand goes tougher on Kavanaugh than Ford

We will have been right.

[Silver Gaia]

17. I read or heard somewhere (CNN maybe?)

that she worked with Joe Arpaio, so I'm not sure what to make of that in terms of which way she will lean. It doesn't sound promising to me, though.

[grantcart]

18. She did not work with Arpaio.

She is a career prosecutor and over 25 years the County Prosecutor was somtimes quite hostile to the Sheriff

I believe that Arpaio was slow to investigate many rape allegations.

Any woman who has spent 25 years investigating rape. Has to have some sensitivity to victims.

Having said that I don't know if she is good or bad, simply THAT OF she is harder on Kavanaugh than Ford that it was not an accident.
We shall see.

[Silver Gaia]

22. Thanks for that info!

Appreciated.

[AdamGG]

8. I hope your theory is true, but I think McConnell thinks he can get the votes

If he still has Manchin, Heitkamp, Donnelly, he can afford to lose Collins & Murkowski. With the absurd rules set up for this hearing (5 minutes per Democratic Senator, Arizona sex crimes prosecutor to use the 55 minutes belonging to the 11 Republicans), it seems like a plan to create the illusion that they had a hearing and then do a quick vote on Friday to jam it through. To me, the hearing format shows that McConnell is trying to win.

Hopefully, Avenatti unleashes some allegations tomorrow that blow up McConnell's plan and they're explosive enough that Kavanaugh doesn't have 51 votes.

The upside may be that either if the Republicans force through the unpopular nominee, or if Trump sustains the defeat of having him rejected, that they'll be on a downward trajectory for the midterms.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. McConnell is definitely trying to win

Alternative theories involve too much thought and too little likelihood

[grantcart]

19. If the Republicans are aware of other potential accusers which has been

Widely rumored from his time on the bench in an office where the presiding judge resigned over harassment complaints then winning for McConnell is getting another candidate who hasn't performed felony rape.

McConnell doesn't care which Federalist judge they pick but doesn't want to lose Senate seats in the process.

[FakeNoose]

9. I hope you're right!

But if you are, it means Cheeto will blow a gasket when Kavanaugh loses the vote.

[Silver Gaia]

11. On the 5 minutes each,

what's to stop the Democrats on the committee from ceding their time to ONE of their members, the one (or even two) best suited to the job by way of both experience and gender? Like for instance, Kamala Harris? That would be quite fair, and I would trust Kamala on this. Or toss in Amy Klobuchar, too. I've heard that both have extensive experience in prosecuting cases of sexual assault. If the Republicans want this to be a mock trial instead of a hearing, then let Kamala have at it. I would love to watch that.

[lamp_shade]

13. Chris Coons has said that's his plan... I'm pretty sure I heard there are others.

https://secondnexus.com/news/coons-kavanaugh-harris-klobuchar-hearing/

[Silver Gaia]

16. Yay!

Thanks!

On Edit: I just read at CNN that they can choose to yield their time to "outside counsel" so not sure who that would be for Democrats. I don't see why they couldn't yield to each other, since they do that all the time, but the Republicans may have changed the rules on that for this. I hope not!

[Silver Gaia]

12. Of course McConnell WANTS to win.

But he's not invincible, and I think he's vulnerable, which is something he's not accustomed to feeling.

Do we know if this hearing will be closed or open to the public?

I am very firmly a glass half full person. It takes far less energy for me to see the positive side of things than the negative. That doesn't mean I'm not fully cognizant of the pitfalls. I see it all. But I prefer not to focus my energy there lest I fall into despair. Eyes on the prize.

[BigmanPigman]

14. I heard something similar to this while watching Brian Williams tonight.

Now that you mention it, it sounds like a real possibility. We'll see....

[AllyCat]

20. And then McConnell is just an evil enough person that he really WANTS

Kavanaugh because he stands for everything the GOP truly is. Rotten to the core criminals.

[ProfessorPlum]

21. they have to get Kavanaugh seated by the start of the next SC term, October 1

so they are going to be forced to force a vote on him before that. And I have no doubt they will be pressuring their coalition very hard.

[grantcart]

24. Seating for the next term is not only small fries but not going to happen

They will be looking for a clean candidate, probably a woman, to get conformed before the new Senate is seated.

[Marthe48]

23. I've suspected that they're playing brett

and once he's out of the way, will slide in another pos who's evil is better hidden.

[appalachiablue]

25. I've heard that & wouldn't be surprised. Get the tosser out of the way.

[Nitram]

26. I don't buy your theory that McConnell was in a hurry to have a vote because he knew it would fail

If a vote had been taken last week as initially scheduled, Kavanaugh would have been confirmed. Kavanaugh is the Republican's wet dream as a Supreme Court Justice. He is extreme right on every issue, ignores the law and votes his ideology, and they probably have enough dirt on him to control his every vote.

[grantcart]

27. I offer the theory as a possible explanation explaining one possible explanation but

1) because of Senate rules on calendaring the earliest the entire Senate can vote is next week.

2) they have a list of even more pure candidates

3) dirt? As has happened many times once you get on the court outside forces have zero influence.

[Nitram]

28. In a case this egregious Kavanaugh could be impeached if Democrats had a majority in both houses.

He could also be charged with crimes by the State of Maryland. He is not protected by immunity from state charges...

[onenote]

29. He cannot be removed by a mere majority in the Senate

It takes 67 Senators to "convict" in an impeachment trial.

[Nitram]

31. I would not assume that, if the evidence reached a certain level, there wouldn't be enough

Republicans who changed their mind to reach that requirement. Please bear in mind that I am responding to the statement that "once you get on the court outside forces have zero influence." I'm suggesting that if the FBI or the State of Maryland did a real investigation and came up with a strong case, Kavanaugh could be impeached.

[grantcart]

30. your responses are completely off point to the question whether or not

Republican Senators set this up in this way in order to eliminate Kavanaugh and get a safer candidate

but Maryland execute a criminal charge without a complaint filed by Dr. Ford and not only has she not indicated an interest in doing this but her testimony expressly indicates that her only interest was trying to assist the President and then the Senate to have full information on Kavanaugh.

I note with interest that numerous comments on various threads are asking if Mitchell is "taking a dive" and other similar remarks which is consistent, but obviously doesn't prove the premise that the Senators couldn't abandon Kavanaugh as long as Trump was still bellicose in his support.

If they get rid of Kavanaugh quickly they can proceed quickly with a safe candidate before the end of the Senate term.

[Nitram]

32. grant, I strongly disagree with a number of your assumptions.

1. If Republican senators wanted to get rid of Kavanaugh, they did not need a complicated conspiracy to do so. They have the majority and could vote against him.

2. The fact that Ford has said she won't charge Kavanaugh in the State of MD does not eliminate the possibility of other victims coming forward to do so now that the "ice has been broken," so to speak. Certainly not as far-fetched as your conspiracy theory.

3. The suggestion that Mitchell is "taking a dive" is outlandish and extremely far-fetched. She is an experienced professional prosecutor of sex assault cases who has written a manual on, and given professional talks on, questioning victims of sexual assault with a "neutral fact-finding attitude" placing "the best interest of the victim" first. I've been listening to her questioning this morning, and have seen first hand how well she does this. The Post expressed surprise that Republicans would hire someone like this, and suggested that they may well regret doing so.

4. If they wanted to get rid of Kavanaugh quickly, I can't think of a slower and less efficient way "to do so quickly." We may well end up with an FBI investigation as a result of the impression Ford has made on the Senators present, and all those who have been watching the questioning, which would drag out the process even further.

[grantcart]

33. Again you don't follow the point

Because Trump and the radical Republicans are so publicly committed to Kavanaugh they cannot abandoned without a reason.

The alternative theory suggests that they may have engineered the hearing in a way to give them a reason

Your comments about a speedier way by having an up or down vote is not factually correct. There are rules governing the scheduling of votes requires the EARLIEST committee vote is Friday and the EARLIEST Senate vote is next week.

The quickest way for Senators to get rid of Kavanaugh is to undermine him today.

The reason that many people think that Mitchell is 'taking a wife's a that she is asking bookkeeping questions and left the incident unchallenged.

In any case all of your other points are off point and you seem to have problems following the essential point

Let me make it clear with these 2 statements

1) It is possible that Republican Senators may want another candidate that will not kill then in 6 weeks

2) whether this is the case or not will be seen IF MITCHELL IS TOUGHER ON KAVANAUGH THAN SHE IS ON FORD.

I don't have a final conclusion on the premise however IF MITCHELL IS TOUGHER ON KAVANAUGH THAN FORD It was done on PURPOSE.