General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRegarding this notion that confirmation will do permanent damage to the Republican Party...
Those who think confirming Kavanaugh will ruin the Republican Party are, in my estimation, being far too optimistic. Memories and attention spans are short. A massive number of American adults don't vote. A large number of those who do vote, for either Republicans or Democrats, don't pay very close attention to politics.
If Kavanaugh is confirmed, I will be beside myself with anger. There will not be a silver lining. There will only be a grave injustice, and a horrific message sent to all survivors of sexual assault. That does not mean we give up. Perhaps criminal charges will be brought against Kavanaugh. Perhaps Democrats will manage to increase the number of SCOTUS justices, as some have suggested. But confirmation of Kavanaugh would be a tragedy of epic proportion.
But back to my main point...I will once again reference the following article: https://www.vox.com/2018/5/1/17258866/democratic-party-republicans-trump-election
...no policy platform is going to win three or four consecutive national elections for Democrats because we know policy isnt what decides elections; thats not how most voters make decisions.
So there are no policy changes that are going to reverse the overall trajectory that this society is on right now. We have to address some of the structural barriers to progressive power in this country, and we need to take those things as seriously as we do the policy fights within the party.
Sean Illing
I definitely want to get into some of these structural barriers, but lets be clear about this point youre making. A lot of people still think theres some meaningful connection between policy outcomes and voter decisions, but theres a good bit of political science research to suggest thats just a fantasy.
David Faris
Right. People just dont seem to make the connection between policies and the party in power.
So, for example, the Democrats passed Obamacare and gave millions of people heath care, and yet tons of people who benefited from it have no idea what it is or how they benefited. And its like that with a lot of policies voters simply dont connect the dots, and so they reward or punish the wrong party.
I think the idea that were going to deliver these benefits to people and theyre going to be like, Thank you Jesus, thank you for everything that youve done, let me return you with a larger majority next time, is just nonsense. Its the wrong way to think about politics.
That doesnt mean we shouldnt do things for people, but weve got to be serious about how elections are won. And theyre not being won on the basis of policy proposals or policy wins.
Sean Illing
In the book, you say that Democrats are engaged in policy fights and Republicans are waging a procedural war. What does that mean?
David Faris
The Constitution is a shockingly short document, and it turns out that its extremely vague on some key procedures that we rely on to help government function at a basic level. For the government to work, cooperation between parties is needed. But when that cooperation is withdrawn, it creates chaos.
Since the 90s, when Newt Gingrich took over Congress, weve seen a one-sided escalation in which Republicans exploit the vagueness or lack of clarity in the Constitution in order to press their advantage in a variety of arenas from voter ID laws to gerrymandering to behavioral norms in the Congress and Senate.
Sean Illing
What the Republicans did to Merrick Garland was one of the most egregious examples Ive ever seen.
David Faris
Right. They essentially stole a seat on the Supreme Court a swing seat, no less. But they correctly argued that they had no clear constitutional obligation to consider the presidents nominee for the seat. They didnt violate the Constitution. They violated the spirit of the Constitution. They violated the norms that have allowed these institutions to function normally for years and years.
This is the sort of maneuvering and procedural warfare Im talking about, and the Republicans have been escalating it for two decades. And theyve managed to entrench their power through these dubious procedures.
The result is that the structural environment is biased against Democrats and the Republicans have engineered it that way.
roamer65
(36,745 posts)It was written to be a replacement to the looser Articles of Confederation.
If we stay on our present course, we will soon reach a point where that compact has to be renegotiated or broken...otherwise civil war will ensue.
All of these Repuke extra-Constitutional shenanigans are what is killing the republic and pushing us to civil war.
brush
(53,764 posts)where many women candidates were elected.
I think whether or not if Kavanaugh is confirmed many more women candidates, most Democratic women, will win election, and not just in Nov. Look for more Dem women to win in local, state and off-year elections.
They can force the accused attempted rapist onto the court but don't thing for a moment there won't be consequences.
We've already seen that movie and people didn't like it the first time.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I'm talking about those who argue this will permanently ruin the Republican Party.
I'm sure you recall what happened in the 1994 election, just a few years after Thomas was confirmed.
brush
(53,764 posts)assholery is what will gradually diminish the influence of the repug party.
By 2035, not that far off, the US will be a majority minority country. Already in many states non-white births outnumber white births. It's happening and all those people, including marginalized women and relatives and descendants of caged immigrants are not going to be voting for repugs.
And the repugs know this which is why they're trying to pack the courts as that will be their only power center in the not so distant future.
Elections have consequences, well so too will jamming the court with an entitled, lying, privileged, white male POS on TV in front of a national audience.
renate
(13,776 posts)Right down to "he's toast" after her testimony and "oh... maybe he's not" after his.
That year of the woman was 27 years ago. A lot of social progress has been made since then. The midterms are going to happen much much closer to the confirmation (if it happens) than the subsequent election was to Thomas', and two years is a lot of time for Trump to flash his ass and inadvertently usher in a lot more women and Democrats in 2020.
I just hope we can last that long.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I've seen numerous posts about how the Republican Party will be completely ruined if Kavanaugh is confirmed. The article in the OP should be taken to heart.
Trenzalore
(2,331 posts)Him being confirmed is bad for the GOP and good for the democrats. If he is withdrawn in the short term it would probably benefit the GOP.
Long term if confirmed you have an extremely partisan justice on the court. Clarence Thomas has almost been clownish pro-GOP anything and I view that as mostly as result of the hearings. Absent the allegations, I don't think he would have been much different given his history as a GOP operative in the 1990s.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,321 posts)I saw lots of comments elsewhere that the "clown car" of GOP candidates in 2016 would result in permanent damage to the GOP. The result is now.
We've been going through political boom and bust since Reagan. I don't know what the answer is, but we really need to figure out how to combat a coalition of extremists.