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Mon Oct 8, 2018, 11:19 AM

 

(Brazilian Election) Could Bolsonaro be defeated in Round 2?

I'm not familiar with the inner workings of Brazilian politics or the psychology of Brazilian voters, but I have been following their recent election and from a pure numbers standpoint, Haddad of the Workers Party (PT) may be able to defeat Bolsonaro the far right candidate in the second round on October 28th. If Haddad manages to gain the votes of those who voted for minor parties on the left and center he could beat Bolsonaro by a slim margin.

According to Reuters, Fernando Haddad received 29.3% (or 31,341,840 votes) of the vote to Bolsonaro's 46% (or 49,275,360 votes) of the vote in the first round of the Brazilian Presidential Election. Ciro Gomes was the candidate of the Democratic Labour Party and came in 3rd place with 12.5% (or 13,344,074). Supporters of Gomes' Party would be much more likely to support Haddad over Bolsonaro in the upcoming two way race of the second round. With Gomes votes Haddad would receive 44,685,914 votes. Still not more than Bolsonaro's total, but I'll continue. Operating on the assumption that Haddad could receive the votes of those who cast their ballots for minor left wing parties in the first round, he would receive the votes of supporters of the Sustainability Network candidate Marina Silva, who received 1,069,538 votes. This would land him with 45,755,452 votes. Add to that the center-left PODEMOS' tally of 859,575 votes along with the votes of the Socialism and Liberty Party and The Unified Workers Socialist Party and Haddad receives 47,287,900 votes. However, if we are operating on the assumption that the votes of left wing minor parties will go to Haddad, we also must assume the Bolsonaro will receive the votes of the far-right Patriota Party, handing him 50,623,677 votes, still a far right victory. But there are also centrist parties that haven't yet been considered. If they vote along the lines of their ideological tendencies (center-right/center-left) those numbers make a big difference. Assuming center/center-left parties' votes go to Fernando Haddad, he would garner the votes of the PSDB and the MDB, giving him 53,673,118 votes. Assuming center right voters support Bolsonaro, he would receive the votes of the DC and NOVO giving him a tally of 53,344,981, losing by 328,137. This may be wishful thinking, considering Brazil may have their own version of 'Bernie or Bust' but it could happen if the Left unites.

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Reply (Brazilian Election) Could Bolsonaro be defeated in Round 2? (Original post)
liberalnarb Oct 2018 OP
question everything Oct 2018 #1
marylandblue Oct 2018 #2

Response to liberalnarb (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 11:48 AM

1. John Oliver dedicated most of his show last night to this

(perhaps someone can post it)

And while Haddad is no prize, it is important to vote for him. Part of the campaign was "not him" - meaning Bolsonaro.

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Response to liberalnarb (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2018, 12:15 PM

2. I don't know, the forces driving right wing populism are stronger there than here.

Widespread corruption in major political parties and corporations, high levels of crime, a failing economy and years of broken promises.

"Not him" doesn't work. It didn't work here.

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