A new study reveals the real reason Obama voters switched to Trump

[ehrnst]

“White voters with racially conservative or anti-immigrant attitudes switched votes to Trump at a higher rate than those with more liberal views on these issues,” the paper’s authors write. “We find little evidence that economic dislocation and marginality were significantly related to vote switching in 2016.”

This new paper fits with a sizeable slate of studies conducted over the past 18 months or so, most of which have come to the same conclusions: There is tremendous evidence that Trump voters were motivated by racial resentment (as well as hostile sexism), and very little evidence that economic stress had anything to do with it.
............................................................................................

“We find a much stronger association between symbolic racial and immigration attitudes and switching for Trump and Clinton than between economic marginality or local economic dislocation and vote switching,” Reny et al. write. “In fact, we find marginally small or no associations between any of our economic indicators and vote switching in either direction.”

............................................................................................

Now, Reny et al.’s statistical analysis can’t show all of this on its own. You should never draw conclusions this large from one statistical analysis, as it could suffer from any number of problems.

However, this analysis of the election is supported by a wide and deep body of research, the vast majority of which shows that concerns about identity and race were the decisive issues in the 2016 election. This was true in the Republican primary and the general; it’s also consistent with research on far-right parties in Europe whose xenophobic appeals are similar to Trump’s. There is a complete lack of statistical evidence, by contrast, for the “economic anxiety” theory.
................................................................................................

History suggests that significant changes in voting across party lines, particularly for the presidency, precede changes in party identities, the basis for realignments. This sequence of events played out during the Southern realignment (i.e., Democrats voting for GOP presidential candidates but maintaining their party attachment) and here we provide evidence that it may be happening again after two terms with a black president and during an era of mass demographic change due to immigration. Racial conservatives and those with the most punitive immigration views are moving right and were the most likely to switch to Trump in 2016. Our data suggest the same is happening in the opposite direction as those with racially liberal or pro-immigration views may be sorting into the Democratic Party.

.....................................................................................

But it’s plausible, and there’s no use burying our heads in the sand by pretending this is about class when it isn’t.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/16/17980820/trump-obama-2016-race-racism-class-economy-2018-midterm

Direct link to study:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/qphz9lxy6pxni1k/final_submission_reny_etal_poq_public.pdf?dl=0

[ismnotwasm]

1. Because they're bigots.

I hated the narrative that Obama-switched to Trump voters weren’t bigots. Such complete bullshit.

[ehrnst]

4. Indeed. Dismissing racism and misogyny as "identity politics" is dead wrong. (nt)

[DownriverDem]

15. Old white repubs

are the worst. They are mean and nasty. Let's see if they vote to save Social Security. I doubt it. They think they are protected.

[DemocracyMouse]

51. What no one is measuring...

is how racism flares up during periods of economic anxiety and perceived scarcity. It also doesn't measure the affect of personality on voters: i.e. "I like Trump and Trump hates those others, so I hate those others." Such projection, of course, preys on dormant racial biases which were generated by similar conditions in the past. Throughout human history different cultures have tolerated each other in urban areas. The flames of division are manufactured by unscrupulous politicians and crooks.

The study is half-baked at best.

[thesquanderer]

27. So the bigots that voted for Obama switched to Trump? Doesn't that prompt you to ask...

why would the bigots have voted for Obama in the first place?

[EffieBlack]

66. Voting for a black person doesn't mean someone's not a bigot.

[FakeNoose]

29. If they're bigots, why did they vote for Obama? Most voted twice for him.

I don't think that's the answer.

To me the answer is clear - they will never vote for a woman no matter what. Especially when her last name is Clinton, but really, any woman. It wasn't taxes, the economy, the immigrants, or anything else except - "We don't want a woman in charge."

I'm not talking about all voters, I'm referring to Obama voters (presumably left-leaning) who switched to Trump in 2016.

[ismnotwasm]

34. Bigotry doesn't preclude voting for someone of color.

My Father used to tell me that Blacks ran fast “because their ancestors ran through the jungle” —-as stupid a statement about race as you can come up with. He greatly admired this athleticism however. He was also of the opinion that African Americans had “Hard heads”, and thus were good boxers and football players. He loved Muhammad Ali. —I forget what his genetic explanation for this was. When he was young, he was a “garbage man”—a big Swede working with mostly African American men. He told me the first time I saw a black person I hid behind his leg—he found this uproariously funny. He was sure it was because the person was black, and not because they were a stranger

My father also told me there were “finger-poppers” or “N*******, and then there were black people. A real font of racial wisdom that guy—this is a very small sample of what I grew up with. His friend all talked the same way. The people I grew up with all talked the same way. They didn’t consider themselves racist either. Why? Because they would hang out with a black person now and again. “Good blacks” ones that didn’t make them uncomfortable.

I learned the word “pickaninny” at my grandmothers knee—she was racist as fuck and didn’t care.

My Dad would have had no problems voting for Obama, except he always voted Republican, being a greedy bastard. He was a racist piece of shit until his death.

So I don’t give these people a pass. I come from them. I know what they are.

[EffieBlack]

65. Duh

We didn't need a study to figure that out, did we,?

[WeekiWater]

2. I think this was pretty clear.

"There is tremendous evidence that Trump voters were motivated by racial resentment (as well as hostile sexism), and very little evidence that economic stress had anything to do with it."

I saw a lot of people I respected who tried to whitewash it with claims of economic anxiety.

[lagomorph777]

8. Anybody can see that Trump is only out to help white billionaires and hurt everybody else.

Trump voters are fine with that, as long as he's hurting the groups they hate. They will even accept the harm he causes them, as long as he's harming women and POC even more.

[JustAnotherGen]

3. I'm glad there's finally a study about it

It was the bigots all along. We knew it. We knew it.

And now - there is classism tied to economic threat that I'm seeing in the northern outreaches of my very Gerrymandered district.

You talk opioids, Russia, or weed - these women go blank.

You talk - hey hey hey - Leonard Lance is going to give your hard earned money to those bigots in West Virginia today and . . .


Happy happy joy joy I'm gonna go vote! You can't talk reconciliation to black women at this point - that includes me. No reconciliation, no kind words, no taking the back seat to bigots.

[Garrett78]

19. There have been a lot of studies that confirm these same findings.

[JustAnotherGen]

25. eh - haven't seen them

All I've heard - especially as a black woman? Is how the poor poor (literally poor) white Trump voter needs to be catered to and have their ass kissed.

Not directed at you - the media.

Now - I think the media is probably saying -

Why are black women being so arrogant about their moral authority and that they know better than everyone else in America.

There ya go! We knew it was about the skin color before ONE single study was completed.

[Garrett78]

63. Here's an article from May of 2017 that I've posted before:

https://www.thenation.com/article/economic-anxiety-didnt-make-people-vote-trump-racism-did/

I've written repeatedly about the absurdity and toxicity of the "white working class/economic anxiety" narrative that got pushed by right wingers and the media after the 2016 election. Even more infuriating was the fact that so many on the left fell for that ridiculous narrative.

[Bfd]

5. Evidence was clear as day if you simply listened to his rally speak

It was never really about the economy, because the Obama Economy that was handed down was fine.

It was racial hate.
Hate for women & minorities.

But Racial hate was the loudest resounding mantra from him. When White Supremacists crawled out from America's underbelly with torches & megaphones, the Bannon messaging was made clear where the dividing line had been drawn.

When shouting down a man like John Lewis and a woman like Delores Huerta, it becomes a clear picture as to who's side the shouters had taken & why.

It was never about "The Economy".
The line of political division was always & still is one of Race.

Racial Hate.

[ehrnst]

6. No amount of increased income for white men will change their racism/nationalism. (nt)

[Bfd]

9. That is the truth, ehrnst. They could be dirt poor & living a squalid existance & they'd still

support a racist before an economist with a big bag full of freebies designed just for them personally.

The Party of Trump knew early on that running a campaign on racisim would grab the most supporters from all walks of life & genders & all ages.

[Hoyt]

7. Not surprising. trump was doing well in primaries until he started spewing hatred

at immigrants, BLM, etc. Then, he took off, and here we are.

[moondust]

10. Same as Reagan Democrats IMO.

Last edited Wed Oct 17, 2018, 02:40 PM - Edit history (1)

I've always guessed that racism was one of the main reasons many blue collar voters went for Reagan. That and his "tough guy" act in contrast to the more "cerebral," i.e. smarter, Carter and Mondale.

Obama voters who switched to Drumpf obviously weren't overcome by their racism when they voted for Obama. I'd guess that their latent racism was activated and stoked by years of the Tea Party movement and maybe reports of whites gradually becoming a minority population.

[StevieM]

35. Misogyny was also a huge factor in HRC's loss. Obama didn't face that. (eom)

[moondust]

43. True.

For 25+ years the GOP demonized her for "not knowing her place." That may have had an effect even on some voters outside their echo chamber.

One other factor in 2016 was probably that some minority voters weren't quite as energized to get out and vote as they were in 2008 and 2012.

[BigGermanGuy]

11. I'm having trouble grasping this

they voted for Obama, but because they are racist they then voted for Trump?

wouldn't it make more sense that they were misogynist?

If you look at the numbers, Trump didn't over perform, Clinton underperformed. That means more people stayed home and didn't vote, than switched party lines. I think fox was just so good at demonizing Clinton, and the ones that did flip did so out of not wanting a woman as president, vs racism.

[Gregory Peccary]

14. Agreed, it doesn't make sense.....

..... why would a bigot vote for Obama in the first place? What I saw was that Clinton became so demonized that some so-called Dems stupidly rolled the dice on an outside agitator hoping for the best.

[BigGermanGuy]

16. exactly

or in the case of most of the people I know... went full susan surandon and voted stein, because "crooked Hillary is gonna win, and if not, how bad can trump be".

most, not all, but most, now plan to vote straight ticket dem for life and realize they were idiots.

[Garrett78]

18. Read the article. It addresses this.

[BigGermanGuy]

21. how dare you assume

I click on links.

[LanternWaste]

23. (assume vs. presume)

the struggle is real.

[BigGermanGuy]

24. well you know what they say

when you presume you make a Pres. out of u and me

[yardwork]

26. The article lays out the explanations.

During Obama's second term, many white people became more distressed about issues of race than they had been before. They were "radicalized" to the point where their 2016 vote was mostly about race.

As a white middle-aged woman, I saw this happen. Prior to 2008, many white people were complacent about issues of race. They believed that we lived in a "post-racial" era. They felt inclined to "be nice" to black people.

Once Obama was elected, some of that complacency started to be threatened. Then came the Black Lives Matter movement in response to shootings of black people. Many white people began to feel threatened now that they were asked to actually confront racism.

Then came Russian trolls and Republican propaganda fomenting white resentment and fear. Then came a candidate talking about murderers and rapists, promising to make things "right" again, giving people permission to indulge their worst resentments and fears.

[BigGermanGuy]

45. suppose it depends on your environment

I live in a rural high republican area... I've always seen the racism, even well before Obama, and didn't really notice any changes!

[yardwork]

60. I suspect that those who switched are middle class suburban white voters.

I'm in that demographic. I can tell you that a lot of my neighbors are wimps when it comes to racial issues. (Even that word causes angst.)

They are totally cool with "nice" black people like Obama, but easily frightened by "scary" black people. They feel uncomfortable downtown in urban environments. They don't get out of their comfort zones very often. The Black Lives Matter protests would have frightened them.

I can imagine some of them voting for Trump after voting for Obama. The lure of lower taxes is always there too.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

28. Yep. It was a battle of record high negative approval ratings among registered voters.

[StevieM]

36. It was also a battle involving a candidate who was super popular just a few years earlier.

She was taken down by a bogus FBI investigation.

[Kind of Blue]

31. "...voting for Obama once or even twice doesn't automatically...

mean that someone is not prejudiced against black people or immigrants. It’s possible to support Obama in particular while maintaining overall anti-black or anti-immigrant attitudes. In those cases, some other factor, like the Iraq War catastrophe or financial collapse, may have predominated over white voters’ racial hang-ups in the 2008 and 2012 election." From the link.

Indeed, shockingly I heard at least 2 older white men interviewed say, "I'm voting for the N-word" back in '08 during the financial crisis at least a month before the election. And don't forget Romney's 47% and his binders full of women. And in '12, the ridiculous Sarah Palin. The Republicans had awful candidates as well as having an obstructionist Congress.

[ehrnst]

39. Yes, apparently the racism increased as the Obama administration wore on. (nt)

[ehrnst]

40. In what way was getting more votes than any previous candidate but Obama

"underperforming?"

[BigGermanGuy]

47. underperformed

in comparison to Obama.

and in the sense that trumps totals didn't sky rocket compared to Romney or McCain. they were relatively flat compared when figuring in population growth.

[LudwigPastorius]

12. I think this research was sponsored by the University of No Shit?.

It's always good to have scientific confirmation of things you already know, but, in the big picture, it doesn't mean much because the people who really need to grasp this are impervious to facts.

[Quixote1818]

13. I bet this was a tiny fraction of people

Last edited Wed Oct 17, 2018, 01:33 PM - Edit history (1)

The main problem was around 4 million less came out to vote for Hillary than Obama and Trump got less votes than Romney.

[bearsfootball516]

32. That's not entirely true.

It's true that Hillary got fewer votes than Obama did...in his 2008 election. She actually got about 400,000 more than he did in his 2012 win.

On the other hand, Trump got about 2.5 million more votes than Romney did. 62,979,636 vs. 60,589,084. He got the conservative base out much better than Romney did, when a lot of base conservatives basically scoffed at Romney and didn't vote for him because they didn't believe he was a true conservative.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-States-Presidential-Election-Results-1788863

[StevieM]

37. None of this would have mattered had it not been for Comey's repeated interference. (eom)

[BigGermanGuy]

48. we can't ignore that time

Hillary feinted/collapsed next to the motorcade.

I had a few centrist friends on the fence leaning her way till that happened.

when they saw that, they questioned her health and ability to survive 4 years, and that alone I know swayed a few votes the other way.

and yes, they now regret it.

[ehrnst]

56. That whole thing was given fuel by the never Hillary crowd on the left, Russia

And some right here on DU who didn't like that Democrats chose her as the nominee.

(that is simply a statement of fact, and not refighting the 2016 primary)

If that was enough for your friends to not support her, then they were really looking for any excuse to justify that they didn't want to see her in the Oval Office in the first place. That standard sure as hell isn't applied to male candidates who are older and clearly less healthy. Eleven hours interrogated by Gowdy. If she had taken a break on 9/11, she would have been bashed for that too, and those same friends would have used that as reason that she wasn't fit.

[BigGermanGuy]

68. oh they certainly fell to the propaganda

but, it was essentially the Bob Dole falling off the stage event. It planted doubt in their minds, minds that were already being bombarded by negative press.

it was enough to push them over the edge. At least for them, had that event not occurred, they would have supported her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. In short

In short voting for an African American guy, having an African American friend, or even having an African American spouse doesn't immunize one from being a racist.

[Garrett78]

20. Yep. Posted this yesterday.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211287527

[Whiskeytide]

22. I'm sorry. I think the idea ...

... of Obama voters switching to Trump is media manufactured BS. I’m sure there were some, but it is simply to incongruous to accept in any significant quantity. Staying home? Sure. But not switching.

[yardwork]

30. I encourage you to read the article, based on data.

I summarized my understanding of this upthread.

In fact, the media totally missed this. They ran with a completely different explanation, which has been debunked.

[StevieM]

42. I don't doubt that voters switched. But this article ignores the effect of Comey and the FBI

on the race. I think the evidence shows that they played a dominant role.

Also, the reason the fake email scandal was able to take off is IMO because HRC is a woman. The article doesn't talk at length about the role of sexism in the election.

[Whiskeytide]

54. I did read it. I just think ...

... the number of people who switched is overstated. The studies I have seen are based on precinct turnout numbers and an Obama to trump victory in that precinct. But they fail to analyze and factor in the increase of voters registered in most of those precincts. That makes the premise shaky at best. Sure, the focus groups found some people who switched, or at least claimed to have switched, but they were a very small sample overall.

I saw voter registration increases - significant increases, in fact - in Alabama counties over the several months prior to Nov 2016. The biggest jumps - some record breaking - were in bright red counties where, I can assure you, few Democrats live. I think this was previously disengaged racist, anti-immigrant, misogynistic assholes jumping on the trump train. They came out of the woods to vote for him. I have not seen national statistics, but since such assholes are not limited to Alabama alone, I assume it was the case, to varying degrees, everywhere.

That, coupled with dem stay at homes, helped turned the tide much more significantly than switchers. But, if your analysis failed to factor in the new voters (and instead you just assumed it was essentially the same voters), it would “look” like a precinct flipped from 2012 to 2016.

That’s my take anyway. The article strains to explain the reasons a racist voter might vote for the black guy and then switch to the racist guy in the next cycle, but it fails to make logical sense. McCain and Romney were not detestable enough as republicans go to make a racist vote for Obama.

The much more logical conclusion is that it’s mostly a myth.

[StevieM]

62. You may be underestimating the effect that misogyny played in the election.

Many people wanted to believe that HRC was a criminal so they did. People did not approach the fake email scandal with reason.

We have a long tradition of labeling women he seek the presidency and vice-presidency as criminals. And this time the FBI and State Department IG office were more than willing to help out with their bogus actions.

[Whiskeytide]

67. I agree 100%. That's why...

... I said the deplorables who registered in 2016 were racist, anti-immigrant AND misogynists. I just think it was more of a fresh breed of misogynists as opposed to a conversion of Obama voters. Although I will concede that for those who might have switched, misogyny is a much more likely driver than racism.

I just don’t think a racist, even someone who is only “a little bit racist”, would have cast a vote for Obama. They might claim they did, but I highly doubt it.

But Hell, I’m speculating as much as anyone. Just a gut conclusion really.

My big concern now is that all those newly registered deplorables are STILL registered to vote. I suspect they are still engaged. I think trump made a pretty significant mark on the electorate by pulling in these cretins, and it may take a generation to force them back under their rocks. In the meantime, they will play Hell with conventional wisdom and projections. This is no longer our parent’s electorate. It’s a whole new ballgame.

[ehrnst]

41. Reading the article might help to clarify things. (nt)

[lark]

33. Repugism is a big tent - it includes white nationalists, Nazis, KKK, skinheads, militias &

the willfully ignorant, non-educated folks as well as the long time permanent residents, the oligarchs.

[SidDithers]

38. "Economic anxiety" was bullshit from the very beginning...

Some Trump voters may not be actual racist assholes, by the had no problem voting for a racist asshole.

Sid

[Turin_C3PO]

49. I bet only 5-10%

of Trump voters supported him due to misplaced economic trust. The other 90% were either racist or misogynist. I truly believe that. Hillary Clinton was being too kind by saying only half are deplorables lol.

[Act_of_Reparation]

44. I often cite studies from Dropbox...

...you know... only when they are pending publication in the 53rd most reputable political science journal on the market.

Just. Sayin.

[MrScorpio]

46. The whitelash abided

[Turin_C3PO]

50. That's kind of what I suspected.

Although I’m a little surprised it was racism more than misogyny that motivated them.

[triron]

52. 'Accidentally' flipped by Russian hackers.

[Blue_Tires]

53. But everyone kept telling me it was "economic anxieties?"

[ehrnst]

58. Well, yes. For White Straight men, there is no problem that can't be solved with more money.

So that's a "universal" issue, I'm told.

All that other stuff will be "made right" once white straight men are earning what they think they should be.

So I've heard.

[Scurrilous]

55. K&R

[Yavin4]

57. This same mindset is why we don't have stronger unions and other labor protections

These people think that they're race provides them with economic security.

[Separation]

59. Really, does this matter one bit?

So what if its true? It sure as shit isn't going to change anyone's mind by now. Also, the subject of this study, does anyone think that they would actually admit that this was real? Ok, maybe the ones who finally accepted that they are racists, but none of the others.

I've heard people say that they could imagine or wouldn't be surprised of a Civil War happening, and there have articles on it as well. There is a fight brewing, and the first shots will be this November.

[Joe941]

61. I don't believe many switched...

It was mainly Russian collusion that caused the outcome.

[Dawson Leery]

64. Anyone who listened to his rallies knew this.

Trump is a racist and attracted other racists.