What are the chances the polls are underestimating Democrats?

[Dawson Leery]

It happened last year in Virginia. We led by 5 in the polls and won by 9.

[Tiggeroshii]

1. They might just as easily be overestimating it

I dont think we can really know until after election day...

[Control-Z]

5. Yup. eom

[mobeau69]

2. Was that outside the margin of error?

[RockRaven]

3. I have heard and read in numerous spots that pollsters are really unsure what turnout is going to be

especially turnout differences by demographic. And that is where the uncertainty in outcome really lies.

How effective will GOP voter suppression efforts be in keeping black and Latino voters from casting ballots and having those ballots counted? How motivated will newly registered first-time voters be to actually turn up to vote? What turnout effects will this hurricane damage in FL and GA have? How motivated will rural right wingers be to turn out?

Some pollsters are hedging by releasing poll results which say "if the electorate looks like 2016 the result will be X, if the electorate looks like 2014 the result will be Y" etc.

[zipplewrath]

4. Zero

They aren't estimates, they are calculations. The question always is the underlying "models". The models consider who will vote, how often, where, and about what. Too many polls are national in nature and the result will be very "local". At the very least it will be state by state.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. Yes ! Heard someone say today that the newly registered voters ARE NOT polled

and there are millions.

[RandySF]

8. They're just as likely to be polled

But they may not make in a likely voter model.

[ecstatic]

7. I hope so. If not, this country is done.

If it turns out that a majority of voters are OK with the racist, misogynist, vote suppressing, cruel & hateful trump regime, what are the next steps? I honestly wouldn't know what to do other than try to find asylum in another country.

[pstokely]

9. the "likely voter" polls may not be sampling newly registered voters, who are usually younger

many of the polls oversample older whites, each pollster have their own model for "likely voter"