Is there any truth to this MSNBC article that just came out?

[bearsfootball516]

Seems kind of bizarre, considering Democrats typically dominate early voting, and this is a year when Democrats are extremely fired up.

Link to tweet

[elleng]

1. Dunno.Jon Raltson NV early voting update for 10.21.18

Dems won Clark by only 44 percent to 37 percent in big 24,000-voter turnout on Day Two — added 1,500 votes to their margin in the South, but well under reg advantage of 13 percent. Margin in Clark is now 6,000 — 5,500 if you include absentees.

On Day Two four years ago, the GOP actually edged the Dems in Clark, signaling the deepening red wave. Turnout was only 7.500.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211305282

[brooklynite]

22. This is for Clark County, which is heavily Democratic...

NBC is reporting on Statewide numbers

Statewide, Dems are ahead, by exactly the percentage reported in the story.

[TwistOneUp]

2. I'm fading MSNBC

Cheetolini and the RNC have been making lotsa media buys. As in MSM, of which MSNBC is a part.

Pretty easy for the RNC media buyer and/or the Cheeto himself to tell the station rep, "You want we should spend money here? Then this is whst we want first..."

Not every station will comply, but MSNBC is quite centrist, so a slightly pro-GOP headline would be not as noticeable as on, say, CNN.

Just my $0.02.

[brooklynite]

20. And pretty easy for MSNBC to say "no".

Unless you have evidence that they are FACTUALLY LYING about data that's verifiable (and that another media outlet could catch them on), this is just another lazy conspiracy theory.

[gabeana]

32. It is a badly written article to get people's

Attention, reading the article is useless unless we know what the early vote #'s were in 2014 maybe e 2016

[GeorgeGist]

3. It's a horse race!

[bearsfootball516]

4. Lol exactly. I just don't get the numbers.

Democrats always dominate early voting. Always. So in a year when Democrats are extremely fired up, it makes absolutely no sense for republicans to be leading. There has to be something NBC is leaving out here

[asiliveandbreathe]

14. Reading thru the story..NBC got info from Targetsmart....Tom Bonier CEO..

Link to tweet

ON the twitter feed he states uses generic party models...

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/about.html - includes a go vote tweet by Barack....and where they get info....and why being made public...

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

This link shows stats state by state....

Hope it helps....

[kstewart33]

37. Much if not most of it is absentee ballots.

Which historically heavily favor Republicans.

[sunonmars]

5. most of those states only opened early voting today, they must be talking absentee ballots...

[bearsfootball516]

6. That would make a lot of sense, considering absentees go pretty decisively republican.

[YessirAtsaFact]

26. That's the case in Florida

Absentee ballots only so far

[leftynyc]

7. Uh - they're ONLY talking about RED STATES

Specifically:

Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed

And then there's THIS fact:

Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete.



There is so much bullshit in that article, they should be ashamed of printing it.

[sunonmars]

8. This exactly.....

[bearsfootball516]

9. Wish I could rec this. Thank you!!

[ismnotwasm]

11. That is also my understanding

Thank you

[AncientGeezer]

15. While true....we need to switch these decisivley....this article isn't a plus for us

[leftynyc]

16. It's meaningless

Do feel free to panic if that lights a fire under you.

[AncientGeezer]

19. I didn't panic in '16 until 11pm election night...how did that work out?

[leftynyc]

36. Like I said

if it lights a fire under you, knock yourself out. I try not to live in the past.

[brooklynite]

23. Um, these are the States where we actually have to win...

FWIW: Florida

Early Voting: 1417 (R), 347 (D)
Vote By Mail: 411,546 (R), 358,576

Facts are facts.

[obamanut2012]

27. Ummm.... early voting started this morming in FL

So, 1417 and 347 is ludicrous. I live here, and this is nothing but clickbait -- today's totals haven't even been tabulated yet.

I could care less about voting by mail -- elderly wingnuts.

[kcr]

34. OMG

And that's absentee ballots on the very first day. Time to get out the lighter marked For Use On Hair Only!

[dsc]

38. and those facts are useless without context

what are the numbers usually? The author of the piece hasn't told us. Now, if I woke up tomorrow and were 250 lbs I would be very happy because it would represent my losing weight. That likely wouldn't be true of say Ryan Gossling. context matters.

[mfcorey1]

10. Some republicans are voting for democratic candidates.

[Horizens]

12. Why?

1) Count on it ... Trump's core of crazies WILL get out and vote. Perhaps they're voting early.
2.) Some of those early rep voters might be pissed off and voting Democratic.

[a kennedy]

13. No......

[qazplm135]

17. Nope not bizarre per usual

The article itself lays it out:

This is the first day of early voting in many of these states. In-person numbers aren't even available yet for most of them.

So this is really about absentee voting, which almost always favors republicans.

A well-written article would do two things:

1. Wait for an appreciable sample size before reporting anything. That box isn't checked.
2. If doing this now, conduct an analysis of the leads by republicans in the past at this point of time compared to now, and see what the difference is. If that lead is smaller, it suggests a blue wave. If it's the same or larger, it suggests no blue wave. That they didn't do this rather simply analysis means they basically wrote the article by looking at the absentee numbers and nothing else and called it a day.

So use it for motivation. Use it to say, I'm going to do whatever I can to vote and motivate others to vote.

[obamanut2012]

28. We started today in FL

Today's votes haven't even been tabulated yet, so this article and doom-and-gloom OP are ridiculous.

[kcr]

35. Or feel depressed and stay home thinking it's all over. That's what these articles are for.

And sometimes that's why people post them.

[PSPS]

18. In a general election, "registered" republicans won't necessarily vote for the republican.

[BannonsLiver]

21. 100 percent cooked to support the horse race narrative

Elections are massive cash cows for these slimy networks owned by huge corporations. It’s ALL about the cash. Facts and accuracy are tertiary concerns. Have been for a while now under the infotainment model.

[brooklynite]

24. You didn't actually bother to research the data, did you...

It's easy to find and it backs up the story.

[obamanut2012]

29. Except the "data" is incomplete clickbait

The votes in FL today are not even tabulated -- we just started this morning. This is ZERO data for early voting. Mail in ballots always favor the GOP in FL -- elderly wingnuts.

[sinkingfeeling]

25. Hope those independents are swinging our way.

[Mr. Ected]

30. If this is true, I hope we GOTV like never before

If this isn't true, I hope we GOTV like never before.

[Azathoth]

31. It's going to be a close election

The Kavanaugh fiasco DID energize the GOP base, and that absolutely can have an out-sized effect during a midterm election. We may also be seeing a repeat of the Trump-shame Effect in polling, where voters tell pollsters they disapprove of Trump and the GOP, but still pull the 'R' handle when they find themselves inside the voting booth.

Democrats are now at risk of falling into the 2016 mindset of thinking the GOP are so transparently loathsome and inept that they couldn't possibly pull off a win. We need to approach every single race as if it's a toss-up.

[Blue_true]

33. Someone in another thread pointed out that the numbers

do not include early voting that started today in states like Florida and Texas. The early data covers absentee and mailin ballots, which republicans tend to have more of.

The poster in the other thread also pointed out that there is no comparisons between the democratic-republican splits for this year's mailin ballots as compared to prior years. So basically the MSNBC reported analysis is useless.

[pnwmom]

39. The article is talking mostly about absentee voting, and R's always predominate in that. n/t