Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states, NBC News finds

[Quixote1818]

The huge number of independents in several of these races should be voting mostly blue however. Can someone shed some light on this?


Is the "blue wave" turning purple?

Republican-affiliated voters have outpaced Democratic-affiliated voters in early voting in seven closely watched states, according to data provided by TargetSmart and independently analyzed by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab.

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

Only in Nevada have Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in early voting, according to the data.

More: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma

[Moostache]

1. If anyone believes ANYTHING on the networks between today and the election, I pity them...

What have these people actually gotten right over the last 4 Presidential Elections?

2000? Florida to Bush...Florida to Gore....Florida to Too Close To Call....Florida to SCOTUS
2004? Ohio? Turd-boy for Shrub knew the fix was in, but not anyone else...
2008? They tried to call McCain-Obama a "close race" in some circles right up to election day...it was not.
2012? Go back and watch the Turd-boy for Shrub here...he was apoplectic with rage that his intel was off...
2016? The theft of the election was not the story before the votes, I know that...

These people on TV right now are a waste of everyone's time. Instead of spending 3 hours watching MSNBC hosts fall all over themselves to down play Democratic chances in 2018, go outside and knock on 50 doors in 3 hours instead....or call 50 registered voters to GOTV...hell, practice yoga for 3 hours to make sure you remain healthy enough to survive to election day!

I am going dark on media coverage as of tonight. 14 days with no TV talking heads, no BS spin, no horse race graphics, no Kornacki, none of it...I may never come back either!

[Bfd]

11. Going dark on MSM TV is a rellay good idea.

Step away & realize you still have a full functioning mind of your own .

I'll record & watch a few campaign speeches, but as far as the 24/7 insanity of media thru the election, I' m also out.

[vademocrat]

13. I cut cable after the 2016 election - haven't gone back

All i’ve really missed is my regional sports channel for my baseball team! Now I listen to games on the radio like I did as a child.😀

[rso]

2. Voting

Republicans have always done better in early voting as well as in voting by mail. Democrats have done better on the actual Election Day.

[sweetloukillbot]

6. I thought it was opposite?

[Blue_true]

8. I wish Dems would stop the early voting and mailin issues.

We have too many people dealing with republican dirty tricks on Election Day (broken machines, not enough machines, wrong poll station information), long lines with limited time to vote, ect.

[Bfd]

3. I'm calling bs on their polling methods.

If they move this type of message now, then less will question the massive voter meddling it took to create the illusion that Repubs won.

Far more States should have challenged the numbers on Nov 8, 2016.

[asiliveandbreathe]

4. Reading thru the story..NBC got info from Targetsmart....Tom Bonier CEO..

Bonier states uses generic party models...

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/about.html - includes a go vote tweet by Barack....and where they get info....and why being made public...

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

This link shows stats state by state....

Hope it helps....

I posted earlier....

[lancelyons]

5. This does not factor in independents or unaffiliated.

This does not factor in independents or unaffiliated.

[qazplm135]

7. read the whole article

the article itself notes that most of these numbers don't include actual in-person voting which only started today in Texas and several other states, and is primarily based on absentee ballots.

Well, republicans usually lead in absentee ballots and democrats usually lead in in person early voting, so saying that at this point, primarily based on the former that republicans lead early voting is saying almost nothing.

If this were a useful article it would do one of two things:

1. actually wait for a sample size of early in person voting
2. compare prior absentee balloting to this year's and see what, if any, differences there are.

Heck, maybe republicans are killing it in absentee ballots compared to prior years and this is a sign of a red wave, but you wouldn't know it (or anything else useful) from that article.

I am fully prepared for the possibility that the blue wave flounders, but that article says nothing useful in that regard one way or the other.

[SolidBlueDem]

12. BINGO

This post could not be any more spot on. This is like writing an article on election night posting the results of all the rural counties in a state, while not including the suburban and urban ones. Republicans always lead in absentee ballots, while Democrats usually dominate in person early voting. This article was written very prematurely. The reason Democrats are leading in Nevada is because this article must of included the first weekend of early in person voting there. If this article was written on Friday, Republicans would have been leading there as well. If you are going to write this article now, it should of been compared to absentee voting in 2014 and 2010.

[Andy823]

9. So how do they know their affiliation

Do they ask everyone who shows up? Do they just do a random sample? I am curious.

I live in Washington state and we have voted by mail for years now, but when I did vote in person, nobody ever asked what party you were in. You just went in, showed your registration card, and that was it.

[dsc]

15. I don't know about other states but here we know who voted early

and party registration of those who voted early. They don't know for whom we voted.

[Andy823]

17. Thanks

I mailed my ballot in this morning, but no place on the ballot asked for which party. I do remember back before the "top two" primary system, I had to check a box for which party, and I understand than in a primary, just can't figure out how they get all this info on early voters and if it was kind of like phone polls where they take maybe a thousand voters they call and then use that to some how come up with who is ahead in polls.

[BannonsLiver]

10. Gotta keep flogging the horse race narrative

It’s infotainment.

[LBM20]

14. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO ABSENTEE BALLOTS AND NOT IN-PERSON EARLY VOTING!! Read the article.

In these states, R's traditionally do more absentee balloting and Dems do more in-person balloting.

[beachbum bob]

16. The independent no party affiliation is the largest segment of early votes

cast and who know how big of the percent of those voters voted democratic....

[Andy823]

18. Good point

I also think some, maybe not to many, republicans are not voting the way the party says they should. A lot of republicans can't stand trump and what he is doing and that may hurt republicans more than they think.

[beachbum bob]

19. I agree, we know there are a segment of republicans who clearly hate trump and the direction their

party has taken. Look at kansas where a democrat has a great chance to be elected Governor and the democrats have an excellent chance to flip to GOP house seats. These elections are possible because of GOP votes


we will be bombarded with everything to minimize the talk of a blue wave and that is great as far as we should be concern.