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Mon Oct 29, 2018, 02:50 PM

On 538: Take out Rasmussen's ridiculous poll and Trump's approval is - 13


Approval comes out to 41.75 Disapproval is at 54.75


Rasmussen is throwing it off and it's a joke so I threw it out completely: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

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Reply On 538: Take out Rasmussen's ridiculous poll and Trump's approval is - 13 (Original post)
Quixote1818 Oct 2018 OP
NewsCenter28 Oct 2018 #1
unblock Oct 2018 #2
marylandblue Oct 2018 #3
uponit7771 Oct 2018 #5
unblock Oct 2018 #9
uponit7771 Oct 2018 #4
marylandblue Oct 2018 #7
marylandblue Oct 2018 #6
NewJeffCT Oct 2018 #8
marylandblue Oct 2018 #10

Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 02:52 PM

1. I prefer to use Nate's likely/registered

Poll screen just to be safe but yeah by all means take Rasmussenís screed out of that sample and probably almost equally as bad numbers will result.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 03:00 PM

2. interesting comparing donnie to other presidents.

none of the other presidents were underwater for more than a blip.

donnie consistently has had disapproval higher than approval for nearly his entire time in office, and usually by a wide margin.


you'd never know it the way the media covers him.

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Response to unblock (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 03:12 PM

3. There is really no comparison

No other president had such stable numbers. No matter what he does, he is always low 40s/high 30s. Ir's the mark of a personality cult and we've never had such a thing in US history.

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Response to unblock (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 03:18 PM

5. +1, and we've been at full employment for years

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 04:13 PM

9. it will certainly be interesting to see the numbers in a recession.

not that i want that, but it's widely predicted, and this expansion is already the longest on record.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 03:18 PM

4. Why does 538 ... CONTINUE ... to include rAssmussen !!?!?

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 03:27 PM

7. He's a data geek, he uses all available data

then massages it based on historical accuracy and partisan shift. His methodology requires that he not throw out data just because it looks bad. It's a common error in science and leads to bad results.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 03:22 PM

6. Silver warns against throwing out outliers.

First, his methodology already gives a significant adjustment for Rasmussen, so you are adjusting an adjustment. Second, outliers are a sign of a functioning polling system. Since the polls each use different screens, you'd expect some to be way off. If they all said the same thing, it means they are herding, that is, changing their numbers for fear of looking wrong.

On the other side of the equation, USC/Dornslife uses a very different methodology from all others. It consistently rated Trump higher than all others in 2016 and consistently rates Democrats higher now. It showed a closer, more stable race than the others.

If USC/Dornslife is correct again, the Democrats will win in an epic landslide.

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Response to marylandblue (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 04:09 PM

8. correct

He rates Rasmussen a C+, but Gallup gets a B and they just had Trump tanking today. USC is rated a C as well as Rasmussen, though.

But, if you look at the "Adjusted" numbers for Rasmussen, it's 45 approve/50 disapprove.

Marist College is rated an A and has him at 39, his lowest among recent polls.

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 29, 2018, 04:22 PM

10. I think Silver is wrong about USC, but in his defense

They don't have a long track record, so maybe they've just been lucky. But I do think they are on to something with their new approach, so if they are right, more pollsters will start doing it.

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