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Fri Nov 2, 2018, 08:28 AM

Will there be any state exit polls on Tuesday night?

Asking for a friend.

7 replies, 581 views

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Reply Will there be any state exit polls on Tuesday night? (Original post)
Funtatlaguy Nov 2018 OP
getagrip_already Nov 2018 #1
Funtatlaguy Nov 2018 #2
PoindexterOglethorpe Nov 2018 #5
beachbum bob Nov 2018 #3
Va Lefty Nov 2018 #4
safeinOhio Nov 2018 #6
Funtatlaguy Nov 2018 #7

Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2018, 08:31 AM

1. are they even relevant with early voting?

Presumably the most ardent supporters on both sides will have already voted. What would exit polls achieve at this point?

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 2, 2018, 08:31 AM

2. Good question. I guess they could be added to the early voting

Turnout models for some predictors?

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Response to getagrip_already (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 2, 2018, 09:56 AM

5. I think that the early voting has greatly undermined

overall exit polls. Other than in those states that have Election Day Only voting.

With early voting all we can know is the party registration (if it exists, some states don't register by party) and you still can't be certain exactly how the person voted. Plus, in states that are overwhelmingly one party (think Kansas or New Mexico), in the first a lot of Democrats register and Republican and in the second it's vice versa. People will do that so they can vote in the primary of the majority party, because many races are determined at that point.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2018, 08:32 AM

3. I would think so in bellweather congresional races for sure, but that is all done by media

 

outlets, so accuracy will be suspect.

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2018, 09:44 AM

4. I think most news organizations, at least here in Va., have gone to monitoring bell-weather precincts

They look at actual vote numbers from 2 or 3 solid red precincts, 2 or 3 solid blue and some swing ones before calling

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Response to Funtatlaguy (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2018, 10:25 AM

6. Surefire Inteligence

is checking into it. Nothing to worry about.

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Response to safeinOhio (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 2, 2018, 10:28 AM

7. Lol. Good one

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