New TN Poll Blackburn 44 Bredesen 44

[grantcart]

A new East Tennessee State University poll finds Marsha Blackburn (R) and Phil Bredesen (D) deadlocked in the race for U.S. Senate, 44% to 44%.

https://politicalwire.com/2018/11/02/dead-heat-for-senate-in-tennessee/

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

1. Imagine that...another way behind nationally reviled repub

is now tied. Gosh...sounds so familiar....arent the gop the ones who ALWAYS show up to vote on off year elections? If that's the case, why the late rally? Esp. in DEEP RED TN. They were all busy I guess.
The steadfast gop voters are so dependable, but, they all waited to vote until right before the election. Must be they just didnt have folks to count all those votes yet. Nothing to see here...move along.
Marsha is a scourge.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. What rating? I want to believe this but I'm skeptical

[grantcart]

7. Unrated poll but even rated polls don't carry much weight with a single poll

But here is the bigger point:

All polls are based on models that project how many Republicans, Democrats, etc will turn out.

If they are experiencing historical turn out that means that there is literally no previous midterm elections to use for the model, all will have to be adjusted.

Bottom line for TN, IN, FL, TX and ND we don't know who is voting and they are all close.

NV and AZ are a little different because the early voting is a) a high percent of the final vote and b) we know exactly who has voted by county and party and can extrapolate certain conclusions from that.

We know that if Dems get a 40,000 advantage in Clark County in early voting that there aren't enough rural Repubs to counter that. We are at 37,000 with the polls still open so that's good.

Besides those two states, its all too close to call for the Senate

[BlueintheSTL]

9. I have been following Nevada with Ralston, but how is it going with Arizona?

Nevada looks pretty good so far. How is Sinema doing out there? I know the polling released this past week has been good for her, but what is the early voting showing?

[grantcart]

14. Welcome to DU, the stats for AZ are more generic than NV but they mirror them

Early voting accounts for 75% of all of the votes.

The turn out by group is incredibly static from one election to another

You can get the up to date numbers here: http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics



here is what the polling has been consistently showing

McSally only pulls 88% of Republicans
Sinema pulls 95% of Democrats
Men are split even
Women favor Sinema by about 55%
Independents favor Sinema by about 20%


So the current breakdown is 41.8 Republicans 33.9 Democrats and 23.6

This is good news for us.

Democratic votes has been moving up. Currently women 51.2%

Based on expected breakdown of votes we should be 3% ahead and we should win the in person vote.

On Monday for example women only accounted for 49% of the vote.

Because of the big split in Independents we are looking good.

This is not really a surprise because all of the polling showed one thing: McSally had extremely high negatives, around 45% and that meant that the pool of people switching to her is very limited so that if we had high turnout it would be to our advantage

THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF EARLY VOTING IS ALMOST EQUAL TO THE ENTIRE VOTE FOR THE LAST MIDTERM ELECTION

1.46 MILLION THIS EARLY VOTE (with more to be added for this afternoon)
1.53 MILLION LAST MID TERM

[BlueintheSTL]

17. Thanks for the info!

I am going to assume you meant women favor Sinema by 5%, instead of "55%? lol. Also, do you know who election day voters tend to break towards in Arizona? I know with Nevada, election day usually favors GOP, hence the build up of the firewall in Clark County in the two weeks of early voting.

[grantcart]

18. No I meant Sinema 55% McSally 45%

BTW the Green Party Candidate endorsed Sinema but I am not sure if that is going to make a difference because I suspect that most Green Party voters are voting Sinema this time.

NV is a little unusual because the unions are so effective in early voting.

In most areas Democrats outperform Republicans on election day because Republicans prefer mail in/early voting

[BlueintheSTL]

19. Got ya

Speaking of Nevada, Ralston just tweeted Clark turnout already at 35K! Polls are expected to remain open until midnight.

[Lotus54]

38. Nevada Numbers

The exact number from Clark Country Dems advantage as of 11/01/18 is 37,886. Today's poll 11/02/18 (cross my finger) will exceed 40,000. We'll find out tomorrow. (Looking Good for the Dems) -Shh, I have to keep quiet- ..lol.. At least Nevada Dems have a strong wind at our back!! Hopefully, Clark County will continue to stay strong for the Dems on Election Day!

Below is Jon Ralston blog website:

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

[Bradshaw3]

29. Thanks for the input

Feeling optimistic in AZ.

[redstateblues]

32. I'm on the ground in TN. I believe it.

Phil has high favorables. He was a popular Mayor of Nashville and a great Governor. Nobody thought a Yankee could win a statewide race in TN. He did it. He can win this.

[Ohio Barbarian]

3. And with reports of high turnout in the cities and suburbs, Bredeson may win this thing.

[grantcart]

8. Yep, welcome to DU

[Docreed2003]

10. According to an email I just got from Bredesen

Early voting in the state is up 219% from 2014

[beachbum bob]

4. So what about the 12%? With days left to go, I can't believe 12% is undecided

This poll is really just words on paper.

[marylandblue]

16. Entirely possible, and many undecideds is bad for the incumbent.

They are people who would normally vote for the incumbent by default, but are now having doubts. If they are having doubts this late, there is a high probability they will break for the challenger.

[redstateblues]

33. That's entirely possible. Blackheart is not popular

[dem4decades]

5. Everyone everywhere please just vote. Damn the polls

Full speed ahead!!!

[Scurrilous]

6. Boink.

[Docreed2003]

11. K&R

Early voting has been up big here in the state. Keeping fingers crossed!!

[elleng]

34. Good to hear, Doc.

How's it feel, in your neck of the woods?

[Docreed2003]

35. Depends on where we go, honestly...

Our area outside Nashville is pretty red, but we've seen only a few Blackburn signs and plenty of Bredesen signs. Nashville itself is solidly blue and the city is pretty electric with activity around the election. I voted early this week and it was extremely busy for our area. Fingers are crossed!!

[Ellipsis]

12. How delish....

[Tiggeroshii]

13. We can pull it off..

We need a strong GOTV everywhere!!

[spanone]

15. Yea Baby....Go Phil

[Quixote1818]

20. A lot of states seem to be breaking toward the Dems. nt

[BootinUp]

21. 12% undecided. Ridiculous. Nt

[Hotler]

22. Go Bredesen, go team....

Blackburn has to go.

[SMC22307]

23. Oprah's knocking on doors in Georgia...

I'd like to see Tennessee celebs, athletes, musicians, etc. do the same. Taylor Swift, Faith Hill, Tim McGraw... who are some of the other biggies in Tennessee? GET. OUT. THE. VOTE.

[Separation]

24. Awesome!

I even saw a Bredesen sign in my neck of the woods. And when I mean woods, I mean that the local Churchs name is Hanging Limb, and the churchgoers arent shy pointing out the tree they used to hang the undesirables.

[spanone]

25. she's been running some disgusting ads against Bredesen, I believe they are backfiring

[elleng]

27. Great!

[talkingwithtrumpers]

26. YES YES YES. Bring it home, Phil

[NBachers]

28. Never too late to donate - I just did

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/phil-bredesen-3

[Iliyah]

30. The Young . . .

[redstateblues]

31. Phil is closing strong. Blackheart not so much.

She has run an awful campaign. She has nothing to run on whereas Bredesen has actually made TN a better place. He’s a problem solver and a good man. The thought of her in the Senate would move TN back years. Go Phil!!

[Funtatlaguy]

37. Thank you for calling her that. She does have a black heart 🖤.

[IamFortunesFool]

36. I hauled 2 first time voters with me here in Chattanooga

Turnout is definitely high here. It's the first time in a long time that voting as a Democrat in Tennessee has the chance to really be nationally significant rather than a small and ineffectual foil to the deep red of this place.