General Discussion

pnwmom

(108,959 posts) Sat Nov 3, 2018, 10:36 AM Nov 2018

In Clark County, NV (Las Vegas), 48K voted yesterday, adding 9,000 to "firewall."

Jon Ralston must have gone to bed because he hasn't added to his blog about this yet, but he tweeted.

It appears to me that there were still some numbers needed from the "small counties" so the spread might shrink a bit. But right now the D's are about 20K votes ahead -- a great position to be in for Tuesday.

D 120,235
R 100,215
I 65,470

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5976

Link to tweet

Jon Ralston? @RalstonReports

More
Final Clark from Friday: 48,000 voted. Dems added 9,000 (!) to firewall in the South, which is now about 47,000.

At a point when the D's were 14.5K votes ahead or R's, Jon said this:

The models don’t change much with added votes, so I won’t do them again. Same outlines hold: Heller needs to win indies by double digits or Rosen must be losing her base more than he is for him to be ahead.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

5 replies

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In Clark County, NV (Las Vegas), 48K voted yesterday, adding 9,000 to "firewall." (Original Post) pnwmom Nov 2018 OP

how this compare to 2014 and 2016 at this point in time. beachbum bob Nov 2018 #1

If you read through older posts in his blog he might answer your question. Last link. pnwmom Nov 2018 #2

not entirely clear, but I always know when you post data, there should always be a reference point beachbum bob Nov 2018 #3

Just check back on his blog later today. He updates every day but hasn't posted since 4 pm Friday. pnwmom Nov 2018 #4

Ralston has said that it is almost impossible for the rest of the grantcart Nov 2018 #5

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)

1. how this compare to 2014 and 2016 at this point in time.

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 10:38 AM

Nov 2018

Need to see a relationship in numbers vs firewall

pnwmom

(108,959 posts)

2. If you read through older posts in his blog he might answer your question. Last link.

Reply to beachbum bob (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 10:41 AM

Nov 2018

But I think he'd say they're not quite at 2016 levels but much better than 2014.

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)

3. not entirely clear, but I always know when you post data, there should always be a reference point

Reply to pnwmom (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 10:47 AM

Nov 2018

to compare to previous data points. Thats me and I am data guy by nature/

pnwmom

(108,959 posts)

4. Just check back on his blog later today. He updates every day but hasn't posted since 4 pm Friday.

Reply to beachbum bob (Reply #3)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 10:52 AM

Nov 2018

Other than a couple tweets.

But I remember him saying in previous days that they really needed, based on the past, a 10,000 vote "firewall" in Clark at the end of Friday. But the current "firewall" (for the whole week) is close to twice that (with 9,000 added on yesterday alone).

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

5. Ralston has said that it is almost impossible for the rest of the

Reply to beachbum bob (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 3, 2018, 11:02 AM

Nov 2018

State to overcome a 40,000 Clark firewall

But that also is based on GOP having a small advantage in Washoe County which is coming in even

The Dems have over performed against best expectations and even if the rural part of the state has a big Tuesday it appears they don't have the votes.

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