538's current House forecast is an 86.7 chance of Democratic control.

[pnwmom]

Watching the site today, I've seen the figure be as low as 84.5. The 86.7 -- or a 7 out of 8 chance -- is as high as I've ever seen it. Hopefully this is a good sign.

The chance of getting the Senate is still put at a dreary 1 in 7. (15.1%)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[MFM008]

1. I cant imagine

Voting split ticket Tuesday.
I think surprises are in store.

[pnwmom]

2. The problem is that the Senate Democrats have many more seats up for election

than the Republicans this year. That many more seats to defend.

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

5. Me too.

[musicblind]

8. The Senate is about where the toss up seats are located.

For example, Democrats may pick up house seats in my home state of NC, but we have no Senate race. House seats may be picked up in Georgia, but they have no Senate race.

The closest thing we have to swing states this year are FL, NV, AZ, MO, ND, IN, MT, WV, TN, and TX.

I'm not saying we can't win the Senate, but when Tennessee and Texas are among your swing states, it's an uphill battle.

[DeminPennswoods]

11. According to the most recent FandM Poll in PA,

Dems are voting as a bloc, indicating less ticket-splitting than is common here.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Likewise I have been clicking 538 multiple times per day

I saw the drop to below 85 and was very relieved when the next check was above 86, which might be the highest ever, as you indicated.

I still say Nate should not have opened the senate forecast at 34.3%, which did not align with other models or with base logic.

But keep in mind these models are in infancy stage and no doubt will be adjusted in future cycles as more data and examples are gathered.

I think he needs to place more emphasis on governorships, which are huge but seemed to be a late throw in this time.

Unfortunately Trump approval ticked up to 42.2 after being 41.9 for a couple of days. It must have been that NBC/Wall Street poll for the bump. I was hoping for a late drop to 41.5.

[musicblind]

9. Trumps approval is up because the base came home.

As soon as this ends, that number will plummet real fast.

[DeminPennswoods]

12. A word about "approval"...

This number is made of two parts, strongly/somewhat or excellent/good. The same with disapproval.

Where the poll gives the breakdown of the 4 categories, I compare the two "strongly" numbers. It's been consistent that "strongly disapprove" is far larger than "strongly approve". What makes the numbers appear close is the mushy "somewhat". For ex, in the most recent FandM Poll in Pennsylvania, Trump is at 36% approval (strongly-25+somewhat-11) and 61% disapprove (somewhat -6+strongly-55%) but if you compare the strongly categories, disapprove is more than twice as large as approve (55 vs 25). This is where the intensity is for both parties.

[dalton99a]

4. Kick

[snowy owl]

6. I don't pay attention to polls anymore. The one that counts is the final count

[musicblind]

10. Amen!

Fight like you're down in by 20 points. All day, every day.

[chillfactor]

7. Hopefully.....

there will be Democratic surprises in the Senate as well.....I can dream with the best of them.

[helpisontheway]

13. If we could only win one of the tough Senate seats I hope it is Texas...I think Beto is amazing PLUS

I would love to stick it to that troll Cruz...