Poll Tip

[DemocratSinceBirth]

When comparing polls it is best to compare polls of adults to polls of adults, polls of registered voters to polls of registered voters, and polls of likely voters to polls of likely voter

[MineralMan]

1. I'm pretty sure most people compare polls to whatever

outcome they have in their heads, really.

Tomorrow is the only poll that counts, pretty much. Other types of polling for this election are over.

[beachbum bob]

2. this is true, apples to apples, but in this case, the dynamics are nowhere the same as found in

your "typical" midterm election outside thegeneral fact the party in power usually gets their asses handed to them. What we don't know is what the under 30 vote is going to be as % of total turnout, we can extrapolate its going to more democratic than not. We can say the same about hispanic/latino vote. We just don't know. A major reason why Texas may hold some surprises tomorrow.


The other element was the release of campaign contributions that indicate senior retirees have contributed MORE to the democrats than to the republicans. That is a huge metric considering that many races are going to be close and a 2-3% shift one way or another totally change outcome. So unknowns are:

- under 30
- over 62
- hispanic

we do know that WOMEN will be voting in RECORD numbers. That is a given and GOP is nearly 30 points upside down with female voters


and then throw in the shifts and turnout in any one of the other demographics. we can see huge wins for democrats. Shifts in all 3, is a MAJOR tsunami...