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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOdds Are, Your Next Governor Will Be A Democrat
In the midterm elections for the House and Senate, Democrats are very likely to win the majority of votes, but they face structural barriers to winning the majority of seats. In the House, for instance, we project that Democrats would need to win the popular vote by somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 7 percentage points1 to be favored to actually take control of the chamber, a result of partisan gerrymandering after the 2010 election and Democratic voters tendency to cluster in dense, urban districts. And, of course, Congress isnt the Democrats only problem: In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million votes but lost the Electoral College.
In gubernatorial races, however, theres no gerrymandering or Electoral College to worry about. So in some ways, theyll make for the purest test of whether there really is going to be a blue wave this year.
And in FiveThirtyEights gubernatorial forecasts, which we (finally!) launched on Wednesday, the gubernatorial news is good for Democrats. They are projected to wind up with governorships in states representing about 60 percent of the U.S. population, compared with 40 percent for Republicans.
True, Democrats will have a hard time winning the majority of states, because the GOP is projected to do well in small states such as Wyoming. But the number of states is a stupid metric: Being the governor of Texas is a hell of a lot more important than being the governor of Vermont. Higher-population states, because they have more seats in the House, will also be more important in the redistricting process that will take place after the 2020 elections, when governors elected this year will still be in office.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/odds-are-your-next-governor-will-be-a-democrat/
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)mucifer
(23,536 posts)BigmanPigman
(51,585 posts)Shell_Seas
(3,333 posts)BluegrassDem
(1,693 posts)Our governor's race is next year and so are the Constitutional state offices. Bevin's approval is in the toilet, so I expect we'll have another Dem to the total next year!
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,328 posts)Time crawls when you're in a shitstorm.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)I will vote for the Democratic candidate, even though I don't think he has a chance. However I have to admit that Charlie Baker has done a fairly decent job (Republican lite and socially liberal) and most people don't feel strongly about voting him out. He's pretty much a shoo-in.