Nate Silver...

[pbmus]

Link to tweet

[budkin]

1. So you don't have to click...

Silver gave Democrats a roughly 86 percent chance of winning the majority in the House. The party must pick up at least 23 seats on Tuesday to retake the majority.

"Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans," Silver wrote.

[NeverTrumpDemocrat]

2. Here's the real Nate Silver final prediction article - from the source, 538 ---

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-democrats-arent-certain-to-take-the-house-but-theyre-pretty-clear-favorites/

Well-reasoned and reassuring in general, although I was a little taken aback that he says they expect the DELUXE version of their forecast to be the most accurate, rather than the Classic.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Thank you for that link

Good article. In particular I loved Nate's succinct summary of why Hillary lost..."She underperformed her polls among white-working class voters in the Midwest and the Rust Belt. That alone was enough to cost her Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and therefore the Electoral College."

That's exactly correct, and other than Pennsylvania it was caused partially by complacency and overconfidence, but most Democrats seem to prefer more sinister explanations, including someone who commented under Nate's article.

[Awsi Dooger]

3. Those commenters under The Hill article are predictably right wing and stupid

Prompted me to respond, even if I try to stay away from places like that