A guide to how Democrats can take back the House in the midterms

[KelleyKramer]

This is a good starter point for election day

It's long, I included snips from TX and FL to give a taste, but check out the full list on the link ...


A guide to how Democrats can take back the House in the midterms


Here are the state-by-state races to watch for signs of a "blue wave" in the midterm elections.


https://thinkprogress.org/midterm-elections-preview-donald-trump-blue-wave-democrats-republicans-senate-house-2018-midterms-65d049d3d2b9/


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Texas

Sen. Ted Cruz‘s (R) first Senate reelection fight has received a lot of attention, as the popularity of rock star and Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) has clearly made Texas Republicans nervous. Though Cruz’s Democratic challenger remains an underdog in the state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has warned that O’Rourke could over-perform polling and “really has a chance” since early vote numbers exceeded the total amount of ballots cast here in the 2014 midterms.

A number of incumbent House Republicans — especially in suburban districts — are scrambling to keep their jobs in a state that Trump won by nine percentage points in 2016. In the 7th district near Houston, Rep. John Culberson (R), who back in August blamed a possible campaign violation on climate change, is forecasted as a slight underdog against attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D).

Rep. Pete Sessions (R), one of the many vulnerable Republicans who voted against the Affordable Care Act’s protections for patients with pre-existing conditions, has trailed former NFL player and Obama official Colin Allred (D) in some recent polls. They’re running in the 32nd congressional district, which lies outside Dallas and is rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report and Real Clear Politics.

Rep. Will Hurd (R) is favored in the 23rd district that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, but U.S. Air Force veteran Gina Ortiz Jones (D) is the type of candidate who could potentially ride a “blue wave” to an upset win on Tuesday. U.S. Air Force veteran MJ Hegar (D), who has released some of the best ads of this election cycle, is a longshot to unseat Rep. John Carter (R) in the 31st district outside of Austin.


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Florida


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Like the Lone Star State, House Republicans in suburban districts are the likeliest pickup opportunities for Democrats here. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R), whose former senior aide recently participated in a Proud Boys rally, is forecasted as a slight underdog against nonprofit advocate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) in the 26th district outside of Miami. In the 15th district that encompasses Tampa’s suburbs, where Rep. Dennis Ross (R) is one among a record-breaking number of Republican retirements, state representative Ross Spano (R) and former prosecutor Kristen Carlson (D) are in a toss-up race.

In the 27th district in Miami, the retirement of Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) has provided a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats (the district went by almost 20 points to Secretary Clinton in 2016), but former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala (D) has struggled to earn momentum against former Telemundo reporter Maria Salazar (R), and the race is likely a toss-up.

The 6th district, which remains vacant following former Rep. Ron DeSantis‘ (R) resignation to run for governor, is expected to remain in Republican control as former Fox News contributor Michael Waltz (R) leads in polling, but former National Security Council member Nancy Soderberg (D) is close enough that a strong “blue wave” could push her over the top.

One of Republicans’ most coveted Senate pickup opportunities is in the Sunshine State, where Gov. Rick Scott (R) is trying to prevent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) from a fourth term as the state’s senior senator. Though the race remains close and within the margin of error in several recent polls, Scott’s campaign has struggled to sustain momentum since the “red tide” algae crisis rocked the state, and the incumbent Democrat is forecasted as a slight favorite.



That is two states, MUCH more on the link, here--

https://thinkprogress.org/midterm-elections-preview-donald-trump-blue-wave-democrats-republicans-senate-house-2018-midterms-65d049d3d2b9/


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