Why is 538 showing Georgia has leaning right on the governorship?

[Baitball Blogger]

It was toss-up before today.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/?ex_cid=irpromo

[Hoyt]

1. Most recent polls have been showing KKKemp up by percentage or two. Hope margin of error prevails.

[MontanaMama]

2. Let me guess...

Cheating? I need to get some fresh air. This is stressful as hell.

[bdamomma]

3. not to be rude

but isn't it too early to predict who is going to win?

Ms. Abrams must win.

[Tiggeroshii]

7. It is always too early before the votes are counted. Regardless of the race regardless the polls.

[USALiberal]

12. This is a discussion board! Get it? Nt

[bdamomma]

19. yes I get it.

I was just asking.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. Georgia won't be decided tonight. Will go to a runoff, I think.

[Blue_true]

8. How does the election in Georgia work?

Dies a person win outright only if she or he get 50% of the vote?

[brer cat]

10. Must get a majority

50% plus 1 vote.

[Thirties Child]

13. The 50% law is how we got Lester Maddox

A bit of Georgia history. In 1966 the Reps flooded the open Dem primary to nominate Lester Maddox. They figured he'd be easy for Republican Beau Callaway to beat. Neither got 50%, and in the run-off we responded with a "Write-in Arnall" campaign. (Ellis Arnall was a former governor.) We pretty much knew it was hopeless, but the choice--Lester Maddox or Beau Callaway--was horrible. Because of the "Write-in Arnall" campaign, neither got 50%, which left it up to the Solid South Democratic Legislature. They chose Lester.

[Polybius]

17. Maddox was as White Nationalist as David Duke

He makes even Rep. Steven King and Trump look mild in comparison. I know Callaway was a Republican, but was he a crazy one?

[brer cat]

21. No, he was not.

I supported him despite being a Democrat, but the Arnall supporters gave the election to the legislature where the outcome was given.

[brer cat]

20. I know that history very well.

It was my first lesson in the consequences of voting for "hopeless" causes. I have often wondered if the Arnall supporters learned anything or are still voting for hopeless causes. We saw something similar in 2016 which gave us Trump.

[MarvinGardens]

11. Yep.

[beachbum bob]

5. doesn't matter

[Make7]

6. There was a poll a couple days ago that had R +12.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/georgia/

[grantcart]

9. They also have a blog article that states when there is a significant increase in

Turnout it will help Dems and make their model less dependable.

[msongs]

14. because the klan crowd is running an effective election fraud program? nt

[Awsi Dooger]

15. That race has never been a true toss up

Abrams has always been the betting underdog.

She has run an awesome race but trailed in the polls throughout, and the damn 50% runoff variable really complicates matters. Unless she wins outright today the chances of minorities and young voters coming out for her again in a runoff are very low compared to how older voters will show up in something like that.

The Republican is trading at 67 cents on Predictit right now. That means 67 toward 100. Abrams is basically a 2/1 underdog.

Texas has 44% conservatives and Georgia has 42% conservatives. That is the uphill reality facing Beto and Abrams.

[Polybius]

18. Plus Libertarian Ted Metz is getting about 3% of the vote

Unfortunately, I'd assume most of that 3% will go to Kemp or stay home for the runnoff.

[Polybius]

16. RCP has Kemp up on average of 3 points

One poll a few days ago even had Kemp up by 12.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-6628.html

[RhodeIslandOne]

22. The voter suppression is too big for even 538 to ignore

They usually pooh pooh that stuff but not in this case.

[budkin]

24. They don't factor voter suppression into their model

Just heard that on a podcast recently.

[GulfCoast66]

23. Of all the hotly watched races, this one is the biggest stretch

Georgia is not even as purple as Florida. Unlike Florida it has only one giant urban area and lots and lots of white in small town or rural areas. Those folks are just not exposed to anything in daily life that makes some of them turn more liberal.

It is easy to drink the cool aid when there is no other beverage available.