General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy is 538 showing Georgia has leaning right on the governorship?
It was toss-up before today.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/?ex_cid=irpromo
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)MontanaMama
(23,294 posts)Cheating? I need to get some fresh air. This is stressful as hell.
bdamomma
(63,791 posts)but isn't it too early to predict who is going to win?
Ms. Abrams must win.
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)USALiberal
(10,877 posts)bdamomma
(63,791 posts)I was just asking.
Funtatlaguy
(10,862 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Dies a person win outright only if she or he get 50% of the vote?
brer cat
(24,513 posts)50% plus 1 vote.
Thirties Child
(543 posts)A bit of Georgia history. In 1966 the Reps flooded the open Dem primary to nominate Lester Maddox. They figured he'd be easy for Republican Beau Callaway to beat. Neither got 50%, and in the run-off we responded with a "Write-in Arnall" campaign. (Ellis Arnall was a former governor.) We pretty much knew it was hopeless, but the choice--Lester Maddox or Beau Callaway--was horrible. Because of the "Write-in Arnall" campaign, neither got 50%, which left it up to the Solid South Democratic Legislature. They chose Lester.
Polybius
(15,330 posts)He makes even Rep. Steven King and Trump look mild in comparison. I know Callaway was a Republican, but was he a crazy one?
brer cat
(24,513 posts)I supported him despite being a Democrat, but the Arnall supporters gave the election to the legislature where the outcome was given.
brer cat
(24,513 posts)It was my first lesson in the consequences of voting for "hopeless" causes. I have often wondered if the Arnall supporters learned anything or are still voting for hopeless causes. We saw something similar in 2016 which gave us Trump.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)Make7
(8,543 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)Turnout it will help Dems and make their model less dependable.
msongs
(67,347 posts)Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Abrams has always been the betting underdog.
She has run an awesome race but trailed in the polls throughout, and the damn 50% runoff variable really complicates matters. Unless she wins outright today the chances of minorities and young voters coming out for her again in a runoff are very low compared to how older voters will show up in something like that.
The Republican is trading at 67 cents on Predictit right now. That means 67 toward 100. Abrams is basically a 2/1 underdog.
Texas has 44% conservatives and Georgia has 42% conservatives. That is the uphill reality facing Beto and Abrams.
Polybius
(15,330 posts)Unfortunately, I'd assume most of that 3% will go to Kemp or stay home for the runnoff.
Polybius
(15,330 posts)One poll a few days ago even had Kemp up by 12.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-6628.html
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)They usually pooh pooh that stuff but not in this case.
budkin
(6,698 posts)Just heard that on a podcast recently.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Georgia is not even as purple as Florida. Unlike Florida it has only one giant urban area and lots and lots of white in small town or rural areas. Those folks are just not exposed to anything in daily life that makes some of them turn more liberal.
It is easy to drink the cool aid when there is no other beverage available.