General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIf 'Polls are wrong', it could mean Democrats would take Senate AND even bigger majority in House
Last edited Tue Nov 6, 2018, 02:50 PM - Edit history (1)
There are fewer ways for the polls to be wrong and it would mean continued Republican control.
But still, vote if you haven't.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)Why I believe the democrat wave is way understated....
YessirAtsaFact
(2,064 posts)When you have these monstrous numbers of new voters?
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)used for extrapolation, afterall, that is what model does in he first place. 2018 is a first of a kind election and pollsters using outdated methodology.
YessirAtsaFact
(2,064 posts)The 2018 mid terms are more like the special elections and VA state legislature elections than the 2016 election.
And 2018 is unique in the level of motivation for Democrats, especially in a mid term.
The number of new voters is unprecedented and can't be ignored.
MiniMe
(21,714 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)Election polls have a problem, they can tell how the people they talk to feel, but that does not guarantee who will actually take the time to actually vote. Some demographic groups historically have been more dependable about actually showing up than others - regardless of how they answer the poll. Polls factor that in.
This year turnout seems to be heading off the chart so all the old models may be poor at predicting which type voters will show up in what numbers. The good news is that historically high turnout favors Democrats, so if the models polls used are off they are likely off in a way that under represents Democratic votes.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)High voter turnout can also mean the white uneducated types who normally don't prioritize midterms but may show up for Trump in far greater numbers. There is plenty of indication of that in Florida, where the white vote overperformed in early voting.
I wish we had seen more emphasis on turnout among independents, because they are breaking toward our side
EleanorR
(2,389 posts)they wanted us to believe trump was legitimately elected
malaise
(268,885 posts)And then when investigations started, Rove's computer guy died in a plane crash
YessirAtsaFact
(2,064 posts)He wasn't legitimately elected any more than Trump was.
Polybius
(15,373 posts)The moron thought he had it in the bag and stopped campaigning there.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)They broke toward Gore and he rightfully won other than the confusing butterfly ballot which disqualified so many votes that were obviously intended for Gore.
Actually the butterfly ballot got all the attention but there were several other awful ballot designs throughout Florida, causing double votes and always at the net expense of Gore.
Purged voter roll by Jeb. Katherine Harris shenanigans. Still the most disgusting example and outcome
Polybius
(15,373 posts)Had their been no "hanging chads" or fraud, Gore wins FL by at least 1%.
malaise
(268,885 posts)With help from the Supreme Court
EleanorR
(2,389 posts)They can't seem to get elected just letting people vote, can they?
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)ck4829
(35,042 posts)In fact, I'd say it's healthy to do so.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)allgood33
(1,584 posts)And it is very possible.