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Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:01 PM

A very real path to taking the Senate Part II

Yesterday I had a thread that documented multiple sources showing a 3-4% bump for Democrats in the final polls.

This probably represents a small number of GOP changing and 7-8% of independents who were effected by the bombing attempts, the Synagogue shootings and the capricious attempt to rewrite birth right citizenship in the 14th amendment. We finally hit the straw that broke a lot of independents backs. Details here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100211367865

There may be a broader "mass dynamic" at play here that you see in herds that are going in one direction and then move in another election. It turns out that when there are big moves in the House and the Senate has around 9 competitive seats that they don't split the seats but they go overwhelming in one direction.

We see other data points like huge increases in youth vote, including a 2500% increase in the youth vote in North Dakota. Does it make any sense that the youth in ND would show up in mass numbers if they thought the race was over? It is their perception that something still matters that creates a new reality and while the pundits have written ND off the youth, the tribes, and the Democrats haven't.

Those same data points ripple through every competitive Senate race. The Senate hasn't been decided and if we follow the patterns of herd movement in the past then we could end the night 51 Dems 48 Republicans and a seat in Mississippi that is headed for a run off election.

Hugh Hewitt casually is pimping for a GOP pick up of 4 seats and he has been wrong 493,932 times.

We don't know who is going to win the Senate but a careful examination of the data, including the last day bump in Dem numbers and a well established historical pattern points in our direction. The Senate is still in play.



https://politicalwire.com/2018/11/05/senate-toss-ups-usually-break-one-way/

One interesting phenomenon in Senate elections is that the races in the Toss Up column never break down the middle; one party wins a majority of them.”


“Going back 10 cycles to 1998, the lowest percentage of Toss Up seats one party won was in 2002 when Republicans won 67 percent (6 of 9 races). In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party took 89 percent of the contests in Toss Up. In 2004, Republicans won 8 of 9 races, but in 2006, Democrats took 8 of 9 races. In 2014, Republicans won 8 of 9 contests. That there were nine races in Toss Up in all three years and there are nine this year is purely a coincidence.”

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Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply A very real path to taking the Senate Part II (Original post)
grantcart Nov 2018 OP
Garrett78 Nov 2018 #1
Bradshaw3 Nov 2018 #2
grantcart Nov 2018 #6
Garrett78 Nov 2018 #7
NewsCenter28 Nov 2018 #9
Wounded Bear Nov 2018 #10
grantcart Nov 2018 #15
dalton99a Nov 2018 #3
Bradshaw3 Nov 2018 #4
dalton99a Nov 2018 #5
grantcart Nov 2018 #8
Wounded Bear Nov 2018 #12
LonePirate Nov 2018 #11
Wounded Bear Nov 2018 #13
ismnotwasm Nov 2018 #14
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #16

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:03 PM

1. Young people voting for pot aren't necessarily voting for Heitkamp.

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:07 PM

2. I would bet most of them are

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:14 PM

6. Could be in ND but


young people in general are breaking for Dems and independents are breaking for Dems by 20 points.


I would guess that the generic break for pot smokers for Dems would be high, pun intended.


We can lose ND and still take the Senate with either TN or TX

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Response to grantcart (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:20 PM

7. I'm not saying they would vote for Cramer. Some will simply not vote for anything but pot.

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Response to grantcart (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:28 PM

9. Hey Grant, if the senate is 50/50

Do you see a power sharing arrangement and a return to comity or do you think the KGOP would park Pence's ass in the senate and run roughshod with him as their 51st vote on everything under the sun?

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Reply #9)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:30 PM

10. Recent history says the latter...

Repubs are scared, because if they hold off the wave in the Senate this time they will have a lot more seats to defend next go-around.

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Response to NewsCenter28 (Reply #9)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:34 PM

15. No one knows


The previous power sharing was between Daschle and Trent who both held that comity in the Senate was a universal battle.

Because the next two Senate classes are bad for Republicans (in the same way this was bad for us) and the likelihood that the could be out of Senate power for a long time I expect that the Republicans will not compromise but do everything they can to put through as many judicial appointees as they can.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:08 PM

3. Kick

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:10 PM

4. Thanks for the realistic optimism

On CNN and MSNBC both have been pointing out the high number of youth voters, who most likely haven't been polled. It's mostly anecdotal but there are numbers out there supporting the surge in youth voting.

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Response to Bradshaw3 (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:12 PM

5. +1. I suspect many college-age voters are invisible to pollsters

although they are clearly - and unusually - visible in the long lines

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Response to dalton99a (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:28 PM

8. and the tribal members in ND are not polled.

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Response to Bradshaw3 (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:31 PM

12. I suspect there are a LOT of voters that aren't being polled accurately...

at least I hope so. Big turnout favors Dems historically. That should work again.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:31 PM

11. Reaching 51 seats is the most effective way to stop 45's destruction of our country.

I am optimistic about all of our incumbents except Heitkamp. I think Rosen and Sinema both have great chances to flip seats. That puts us at 50 if we lose ND. We just need one of MS/TN/TX. Hopefully we can win at least one of those to give us 51.

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #11)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:32 PM

13. Heitkamp has beat the polls before...

ND polls very poorly.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:33 PM

14. K&R

I’d love to see it of course

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 03:41 PM

16. I don't believe in late movement in general elections

 

Far more often it is a myth or a mirage. Primaries are like-minded people so that can shift wildly in the late going, like water in a tank.

General elections are exponentially more rigid. Those stacks of liberals and conservatives are smack in front of you, and not going anywhere. They repel any late meaningful shift, especially if it is against the highest stack.

I am always going to stick to that big picture outlook and ignore late polling trends. We are not going to have a late meaningful wave against stacks of 42% conservatives or 44% conservatives.

Trump defied the polling in 2016 because of the Comey letter and the very poor modeling that understated not only how many white working class voters would show up, but in what percentage they would support Republicans. In short, Hillary never actually led by the margins the polls were claiming, even without Comey. Once Comey was stupid enough to intervene it shifted a narrow Hillary electoral victory to the disaster we face now.

I believe it will be a quiet night here in the senate. Some mathematical models have Democratic control at 6% to 10% likely. The 6% model was posted here last night by someone else. Here is a 10% model:

https://markets.predictwise.com/politics/14978-2

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