These 11 places could seal Trump's midterm fate

[riversedge]

Very interesting article---short paragraphs about each of these 11 areas.


These 11 places could seal Trump’s midterm fate

Orange County, upstate New York and the Phoenix metro area are among the key spots that will decide the outcome on election night.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/06/2018-elections-house-senate-won-lost-963562




By CHARLIE MAHTESIAN

11/06/2018 05:08 AM EST


Upstate New York and downstate Illinois. Metro Atlanta and the Delaware Valley. Orange County, Calif., and Maricopa County, Ariz.

These areas are among a relatively small set of places that will play an outsized role in picking the winners and losers of the midterm elections. A Democratic sweep of upstate New York could deliver nearly a quarter of the seats needed to overcome the GOP’s 23-seat majority in the House. Likewise, a strong GOP turnout in traditionally conservative Orange County could bolster Republican hopes of holding down the damage in the House — and maybe even help salvage the majority.

Most of these places have been blanketed by TV ads for months because they’re home to a concentration of battleground House races or they’re essential to closely contested Senate or governor’s races. How Arizona’s Maricopa County goes, for example, could affect the balance of power in the Senate because of its critical role in the contest between Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally.

Whether they are rural in character or metropolitan, Republican or Democratic in their voting habits, the common denominator in these places is that they will be influential in shaping the next Congress and determining which parties hold statehouse power.......................................



Miami-Dade County, Fla.

With competitive House races in the Miami-based 25th, 26th and 27th congressional districts and two nationally watched statewide races — Senate and gubernatorial contests that are considered toss-ups — few areas are more important than Miami.

Miami-Dade County is the most populous in the state; the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale media market has seen some $80 million in spending on political ads. The 26th District, where GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo is trying to hold on in a district Clinton carried by 16 points in 2016, has emerged as one of the nation’s priciest: $20 million in ad spending alone.


Oakland County, Mich.

Affluent, white-collar Oakland County is the most populous in the state after Detroit’s Wayne County. A strong Republican performance there is essential to GOP hopes in statewide races.

But with GOP chances flagging in both the Senate and governor’s races this year, the real question there is whether the party can hang onto the 8th and 11th congressional districts. In the 8th District, GOP Rep. Mike Bishop is thought to be the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in Michigan's delegation. Oakland will play a role in determining his fate, having cast close to 40 percent of the district’s vote in 2016. Reached by both the Lansing and Detroit media markets, it’s been one of the most expensive House races in the nation in terms of ad spending, $21 million in total.

In the entirely Oakland-based 11th — a Republican-leaning suburban seat left vacant this year by the retirement of GOP Rep. Dave Trott — Democrat Haley Stevens is thought to have a slight advantage over Republican Lena Epstein...........................

[pangaia]

1. Upstate- NY here 27th District...

GO NATE !!!!!!!!!!



I voted about 1 pm...

[BumRushDaShow]

2. "Delaware Valley" (which is Philly metro)

From the OP link -

Delaware Valley

The Delaware Valley region is essentially southeastern Pennsylvania and parts of South Jersey — in other words, the Philadelphia metropolitan area. And depending on how broadly you define the region, there are at least a half-dozen House seats in play.

On the Pennsylvania side of the Delaware River, a map drawn by the state Supreme Court earlier this year has scrambled the House landscape, nowhere more than in the populous southeastern corner of the state. GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is locked in a toss-up battle in Bucks County. The two other nearby Philly suburban districts (the 5th and 6th Districts), neither of which have an incumbent running, are expected to be Democratic pick-ups. Farther north toward Allentown, in the district formerly held by GOP Rep. Charlie Dent, Democrats have the edge.

As far as Pennsylvania statewide elections go, a recent Franklin & Marshall poll shows Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey swamping their Republican opponents in the Southeast.

On the Jersey side, the Shore-based seat held by retiring GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo is widely acknowledged to be long gone — count it as a Democratic pick-up. The neighboring 3rd District held by GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur, on the other hand, is highly competitive: It snapped from voting for Barack Obama by 5 points to Donald Trump by 6 in 2016.

The new PA-5, PA-6, & PA-7 should all be new (D) pickups. The battle would be for the tied new PA-1, which would be a nice bonus. The area has had a (D) before the 2010 massacre - in 2006 & 2008.

[Initech]

3. Flip OC Blue!!!!

I did my part!