General Discussion

femmedem

(8,196 posts) Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:43 PM Nov 2018

I'm watching the forecast change in real time over at 538.

About two hours ago they were forecasting Dem +35 in the house. Now it's up to Dem +42.
And two hours ago, they were forecasting a 5 in 6 chance that Dems take the house. Now it's 14 in 15.

Unfortunately, the senate forecast is holding steady at R+1, but the odds have shifted ever so slightly D.

Updated to add: Now they're forecasting D+43 in the House and no change in the Senate!

Updated again: oh no, I turned my back for a bit and now the forecast is worse than when I first started watching. And me with no alcohol in the house.

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I'm watching the forecast change in real time over at 538. (Original Post) femmedem Nov 2018 OP

The House generic margin changes the numbers Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #1

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)

1. The House generic margin changes the numbers

Reply to femmedem (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 08:50 PM

Nov 2018

That's what the 538 model is reacting to. Even races with the polls yet to close are being adjusted more favorably based on House numbers elsewhere.

And that is the proper way to proceed

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