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Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:21 PM

Holy shit! 538 Republicans 1 in 2 chance win House

36 replies, 4581 views

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Reply Holy shit! 538 Republicans 1 in 2 chance win House (Original post)
Doodley Nov 2018 OP
nycbos Nov 2018 #1
PoliticAverse Nov 2018 #2
femmedem Nov 2018 #3
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #4
Doodley Nov 2018 #5
gay texan Nov 2018 #6
BumRushDaShow Nov 2018 #7
Celerity Nov 2018 #8
MLAA Nov 2018 #9
blitzen Nov 2018 #10
Doodley Nov 2018 #15
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #11
marybourg Nov 2018 #12
Patterson Nov 2018 #21
mr_liberal Nov 2018 #13
Azathoth Nov 2018 #14
Enoki33 Nov 2018 #22
Takket Nov 2018 #16
Roland99 Nov 2018 #17
unblock Nov 2018 #18
Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #19
Celerity Nov 2018 #20
Doodley Nov 2018 #23
unblock Nov 2018 #24
budkin Nov 2018 #25
marylandblue Nov 2018 #26
budkin Nov 2018 #27
JenniferJuniper Nov 2018 #28
TNLib Nov 2018 #29
LonePirate Nov 2018 #30
gay texan Nov 2018 #31
krawhitham Nov 2018 #32
PoliticAverse Nov 2018 #33
RogerM Nov 2018 #34
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Nov 2018 #35
NeverTrumpDemocrat Nov 2018 #36

Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:21 PM

1. Where?

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:22 PM

4. Now we are at 39%

 

Could be a disastrous embarrassing night

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:23 PM

5. Fuck

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:23 PM

6. What the fuck is going on????

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:24 PM

7. OFFS - 538 updates "real time" so it will be changing all night

You have 50 states and the west coast is still voting.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:24 PM

8. Wtf

This cant be right. Must be a glitch.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:24 PM

9. 1 see them at 1 in 5 chances to win....we are at 4 in 5 chances

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:24 PM

10. didn't you mean 1 in 20? because it's 96%

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Response to blitzen (Reply #10)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:26 PM

15. That's the Senate

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:24 PM

11. Normally when it plunges like this it doesn't come back

 

We need a semi miracle.

Republican rural white voters are apparently dictating the country again

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:24 PM

12. Less than that now: 39.9%

Picking up only 20 seats, instead of the 21 needed.

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Response to marybourg (Reply #12)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:27 PM

21. 23 is needed.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:24 PM

13. 3 in 5 Chance Republicans win control of house (60.7%). nt

 

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:25 PM

14. Oh stop this shit

Realtime results with 3% of districts reporting in are meaningless.

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Response to Azathoth (Reply #14)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:27 PM

22. Exactly.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:26 PM

16. that graph is bad data

they live update based on early vote totals, and early totals are always rural red counties. really silly to present data like that. its like saying a baseball team goes from a 33% to 66% chance of winning if they score 1 run in the first inning

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:26 PM

17. 4 in 7 chance Dems win now. It updates constantly

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:26 PM

18. Back up to 57%. I think it will jump around a bit....

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:26 PM

19. Now 57%

 

We need the tight races to fall our way. There is no wave, given the gerrymandered aspect

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:26 PM

20. Its back ip to 57% we take back the House.

Seems to be crazy delta going on.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:27 PM

23. I have to lay down. Making me sick.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:30 PM

24. A note from 538 as to why the model may be overreacting

"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:31 PM

25. There is NO WAY they could be that off.

There has got to be something rotten going on.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:31 PM

26. Silver says his model is too aggressive

Overweighting a few R wins when there are no equivalent D chances.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:32 PM

27. I've stopped watching in real time

Way too stressful

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:32 PM

28. Tampering

has to be. Carville on MSNBC just sounded very depressed.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:36 PM

29. It'll change once we move west.

I wouldn’t freak out

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:39 PM

30. We are truly fucked as a nation.

I’m in my mid-40s and I think there is a chance this country dissolves in my lifetime.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:41 PM

31. How is this even possible

I dont get it

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:41 PM

32. Nate says

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:46 PM

33. Silver turns down the dial...

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:47 PM

34. Who know - It will be close !

[link:
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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:53 PM

35. At 62% Dems

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2018, 09:56 PM

36. Dem are likely to take the House, but not impressively the way this night has started.

 

Outside the House, things look worse: Senator Donnelly is behind in Indiana. And Gillum is behind in Florida

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