OMG 538 has the House back up to a 9/10 odds -- after slipping as low as 1/3.

[pnwmom]

Right now they're predicting a pick up of 34 seats.

I hope I don't have heart failure tonight.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

[Loki Liesmith]

1. Their election night model was stupid.

I tuned it out after the early fluctuations. Obvious crap.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. 538's models are a work in progress

Tonight was like a test drive

At least Nate Silver and another 538 contributor recognized it midway and made some adjustments.

Apparently some "likely" and "lean" Republican districts all fell Republican and the 538 model overreacted. That should never happen. "Likely" means almost certain to win and "lean" isn't far behind

[Loki Liesmith]

9. Oh that's right enough

But Nate Cohn at Upshot was more conservative from the get go.

[still_one]

2. West Coast is part of the U.S. and the polls haven't even closed yet

[FloridaBlues]

3. We haven't gotten to California or west states

At least looking good for the house and Gov races.

[pnwmom]

4. And we might not tonight, since we were still mailing in ballots on the west coast TODAY.

[FloridaBlues]

5. Look for some good pickups there!

[BlueSpot]

6. 538 very flakey tonight

And they were pretty unreliable in 2016 as well. Thinking I will delete the bookmark.

[Amishman]

8. I would just not check them on election night

The outcome here is looking to be pretty close to their projections, and they gave the orange idiot a higher chance than anyone else in 2016. Their model just doesn't seem to do well with partial returns

[Loki Liesmith]

10. They're long term model looks great though

You’d be mistaken to delete them.