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How did FL and GA lose? (Original Post) BigmanPigman Nov 2018 OP
In Georgia, the Fox was running for governor of the henhouse DFW Nov 2018 #1
Florida is moving to up in the air. Blue_true Nov 2018 #2
I know. I wish Gillum didn't concede. nt SunSeeker Nov 2018 #5
He can take back the concession. It is not legally binding. Blue_true Nov 2018 #7
Oh thats bdamomma Nov 2018 #26
Trump Supporters whose lives suck decided to come out to vote JI7 Nov 2018 #3
They really love to hate us, a lot? Don't they. BigmanPigman Nov 2018 #8
Haters gonna hate BBG Nov 2018 #30
"You can now wear one of FL's gerrymandered districts as a necklace" Hortensis Nov 2018 #32
Dems have to start with a 7% lead in the polls BigmanPigman Nov 2018 #40
Yes! Un-American, and that's for the house alone. Hortensis Nov 2018 #41
I asked about a solution about this last night BigmanPigman Nov 2018 #42
Do you have an answer? For sure we don't let ALEC and Hortensis Nov 2018 #43
This is the thread from last night... BigmanPigman Nov 2018 #46
Thanks, Bigman. Hortensis Nov 2018 #47
No problem. BigmanPigman Nov 2018 #48
Most white people in the South hate Democrats more than they hate racists. LonePirate Nov 2018 #34
This message was self-deleted by its author MaryMagdaline Nov 2018 #4
I'm not happy either. Socal31 Nov 2018 #9
:) Hear, hear! You, me, Stacey Abrams, Andrew Gillum, Hortensis Nov 2018 #11
Both states are red, run by intensely corrupt Republicans, Hortensis Nov 2018 #10
What you said, Hortensis Hekate Nov 2018 #12
Florida is less black but also less conservative than Georgia Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #14
Nonsense to this "FL is ours but we lose anyway" schtick. Hortensis Nov 2018 #18
Your earlier post was laughable nonsense Awsi Dooger Nov 2018 #19
It looked like Gillium had good turn out numbers, but do you think that also... uponit7771 Nov 2018 #21
Of course the "red tide" dream was mostly nonsense, but Hortensis Nov 2018 #23
Couldn't Desantis racist campaign JonLP24 Nov 2018 #33
This, precisely hatrack Nov 2018 #25
Voter suppression bdamomma Nov 2018 #31
+1000. Stacey's not conceding, btw, reportedly wants Hortensis Nov 2018 #37
That's just nasty, MaryMagdaline Hekate Nov 2018 #13
Florida got redder in the Trump era faster than it's getting bluer. SaschaHM Nov 2018 #6
the democratic cities need to do all they can to take care of their own anyways JI7 Nov 2018 #16
I never really thought Stacey ... LenaBaby61 Nov 2018 #15
In GA, yes, there was suppression, but we were mostly ready and challenged it aikoaiko Nov 2018 #17
How did FL do in the state houses? allgood33 Nov 2018 #20
Still in Republican control peekaloo Nov 2018 #36
In Florida it was Fear and Racism RockaFowler Nov 2018 #22
He stated last night all the negative stuff was thrown at him peekaloo Nov 2018 #38
Racism Algernon Moncrieff Nov 2018 #24
GA will probably go to a runoff Cattledog Nov 2018 #27
I think it's clear that if there is a fair playing field, Democrats win. Vinca Nov 2018 #28
GA hasn't lost. Still up in the air. MrsCoffee Nov 2018 #29
Something funky going on in Dade and Broward. Baitball Blogger Nov 2018 #35
We will see if recount starts for senate race. It should less than 0.5% FloridaBlues Nov 2018 #39
GA seems headed for a runoff NewJeffCT Nov 2018 #44
Because.... In It to Win It Nov 2018 #45

DFW

(54,047 posts)
1. In Georgia, the Fox was running for governor of the henhouse
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:29 AM
Nov 2018

There was a reason voting machines in Democratic wards didn't have power cords to be plugged in.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
2. Florida is moving to up in the air.
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:30 AM
Nov 2018

Both the Senate and gubernatorial margins are well within recount limits with provisionals and late mailin uncounted. And some precincts in Miami-Dade have not reported.

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
7. He can take back the concession. It is not legally binding.
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:41 AM
Nov 2018

The vote count is legally binding and whoever leads after a recount is done wins.

JI7

(89,172 posts)
3. Trump Supporters whose lives suck decided to come out to vote
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:31 AM
Nov 2018

after seeing democrats get excited over their candidates. they wanted to stick it to the liberals/democrats.

because sticking it to us like that is their one/only way to get satisfaction in their lives.


in georgia the republican candidate was openly doing all he could to deny people the right to vote.

BigmanPigman

(51,430 posts)
8. They really love to hate us, a lot? Don't they.
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:43 AM
Nov 2018

They love to hate everything a lot come to think of it.

BBG

(2,476 posts)
30. Haters gonna hate
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:37 AM
Nov 2018

Bless their little hearts. Because all the hate makes for little hearts and little minds.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
32. "You can now wear one of FL's gerrymandered districts as a necklace"
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:39 AM
Nov 2018

I liked that headline when I saw it.

Don't forget other reasons, and this is huge: Democrats have to get a substantial majority of votes to win in gerrymandered red states, while Republicans just have to get a minority to win.

Ezra Klein of Vox pointed out before yesterday that it was very possible that in January the Republicans would control the presidency, the senate, and the house after having lost the popular vote in all three. They lost the house as it turns out, but only because we outvoted them by over 7% on average in those districts. THAT's how corrupt and stacked for Republicans the gerrymandering is.

The voters in their wisdom gave them the power in a census year to corrupt our elections this way, and boy, did they. And that's why they keep winning, that and high conservative voter turnout. They may be fewer but they're loyal and aggressive.

BigmanPigman

(51,430 posts)
40. Dems have to start with a 7% lead in the polls
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:25 PM
Nov 2018

just to break even with GOP opponents due to the gerrymandering. This is so UN-AMERICAN! The founding fathers are spinning in their graves.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
41. Yes! Un-American, and that's for the house alone.
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 05:05 PM
Nov 2018

It was pointed out that geography could increase, or decrease a bit, the lead needed. I heard that one set of analysts believed it could run as high as 11%, though it didn't turn out that way.

Then, of course, there's the constitutionally "gerrymandered" senate, where the less than 600,000 residents of Wyoming have 2 votes in the senate the same as NYS with almost 20,000.000. As it happens, of course, most of the more sparsely populated states tend to be conservative.

Un-democratic as hell, and even the original reasons for this problematic situation are at least partially obsolete.

BigmanPigman

(51,430 posts)
42. I asked about a solution about this last night
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 05:07 PM
Nov 2018

but is seems there is none since they aren't technically gerrymandered. How do we change this?

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
43. Do you have an answer? For sure we don't let ALEC and
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:50 PM
Nov 2018

other scoundrels like those claiming to be "originalists" repeal the 17th amendment which established direct election by the people, perhaps through that new constitutional convention scheme. They're trying for it, and we'll no doubt be seeing a surge of noisy support on the right for stripping themselves of the power to elect senators.

It's something to learn about. There may well be some prospective workarounds that could be codified in law to mitigate effects without violating the constitution.

Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Socal31

(2,484 posts)
9. I'm not happy either.
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:47 AM
Nov 2018

But just because it is tolerated more than since I joined, race-based insults (particularly when they are factually incorrect and fallacies) are what this "white" person votes with his wallet, time, and ballot, to eliminate.

Looking forward to seeing where these fantastic candidates end up next time. The trend is clear.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
11. :) Hear, hear! You, me, Stacey Abrams, Andrew Gillum,
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:59 AM
Nov 2018

and millions of other people of good will and good sense.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
10. Both states are red, run by intensely corrupt Republicans,
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:48 AM
Nov 2018

FL has been majority conservative in this conservative era, while GA has always been blood red. A better question would be an amazed, "How on earth did two black Democrats come so incredibly CLOSE to winning?"

Not that they may not actually have. We've no idea what the real vote counts would have been without vote suppression and other forms of election theft -- except that Republican numbers would drop and Democrat rise.

In any case, that black candidates in both states nevertheless came extremely close to unseating white establishment candidates completely disproves the...unfortunate claim that it's all about "lockstep" white people electing whites.

30% of Georgians are black, a very large percentage, but whites still outnumber them 2:1. If your assumption were correct, no black candidate for statewide office would ever come close to being viable.

It's a lot worse in FL, where blacks are less than 17%. Yet, once again, a black candidate came very close to being elected, and possibly was the real choice of the people.

Huge change is occurring right in front of your eyes. Maybe take a look. GA's black people finally voted their power in a statewide race, and for sure this state will never be the same again.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
14. Florida is less black but also less conservative than Georgia
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 05:11 AM
Nov 2018

We should have won Florida. No state underachieves like Florida. The distribution is fine in terms of number of liberals/conservatives and blacks and Hispanics. It is a state maybe 2 points red at base instinct. That state has to flip blue given a national tide like 2018.

I guess there has to be some state that always blows the tight races but otherwise I could do without the distinction.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
18. Nonsense to this "FL is ours but we lose anyway" schtick.
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 05:40 AM
Nov 2018

Florida was a red state with Republican governor and Republican control of both houses of the legislature. And we now know that it still is, though it's looking like Democrats may secure a majority in the house. (!)

And of course, the "red tide" algae has not persuaded voters to finally turn FL blue, as some speculated it might.

Btw, those Hispanics you mentioned are over 23% of the population, but a good majority of them are conservative and they also vote in famously lower numbers than other major groups. Just like the rest of the nation, FL's conservative Hispanics do NOT typically come out in numbers with other Hispanics to join with a black bloc to elect Democrats.

 

Awsi Dooger

(14,565 posts)
19. Your earlier post was laughable nonsense
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 06:09 AM
Nov 2018

If you don't understand the difference between ideological numbers in relation to black/white percentages I can't help you. One is light years more significant than the other yet you emphasized the wrong one. Otherwise Mississippi would be overwhelmingly blue with its 37% blacks

Hispanics favored Crist over Scott by 20 points in 2014 despite a red wave nationally, and they favored Hillary over Trump by 62-35 in Florida in balanced terrain nationally. Yet I'm not supposed to notice or care when somehow that Hispanic edge dropped to 55-44 in a heavy blue year? Obviously the messaging and emphasis was inept. Scott was allowed to run a, "Quien es Bill Nelson?" ad on Spanish television that went unchallenged for months.

You are stuck in the same conventional wisdom trap as countless others regarding Florida.

Anyone who believed Georgia was equally likely or winnable as Florida was an outright fool.

Those red tide type issues are monumental garbage. Day to day issues are garbage. Anyone who pays a fleck of attention is just wasting their time and kidding themselves.

Florida is a slightly red state that by all meaningful numbers should have gone blue this time, given the degree of the national slant in a situational dynamic like first term midterm. The fact that the legislature is red means nothing in statewide terms. The districts have been gerrymandered to the point the House split never represents the statewide vote.

Any state with readily available early voting and less than 40% conservatives should have gone blue this time, unless a popular incumbent was holding the seat from the other party. That does not threaten to describe Florida. Somehow we botched one incumbent seat of our own and gave away an open race in which the other side ran a wing nut. It was a disgraceful unforced error and that is why so many Floridians are stunned. Nelson never campaigned seriously until late August. He allowed Rick Scott to bump his approval ratings sharply via months of solo air time, and nothing Nelson attempted late budged those approval ratings. Gillum ran a good race but apparently was simply too liberal for the electorate. That is a strange situation since it rarely shows. But any candidate who is dismissed by 46% of exit pollers as too extreme for the state was not an ideal choice.

I don't doubt that partisans from afar look at it like...just Florida losing again. It was anything but that.

Bottom line, I don't respect anyone who doesn't understand situational influence and applied political math, and that will never change.

uponit7771

(90,225 posts)
21. It looked like Gillium had good turn out numbers, but do you think that also...
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 07:51 AM
Nov 2018

... brought out more Red Hatters too?

Thx in advance

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
23. Of course the "red tide" dream was mostly nonsense, but
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 07:56 AM
Nov 2018

it reflects the same kind of unbased thinking you're indulging. You want to irrationally blame the Democratic Party, though I don't know why. The reason more Floridians didn't vote for Democrats is because they chose not to. It's a red state, and a majority of voters chose to have Republicans continue their total control of state government.

You might take a look at some of the people you're refusing to blame for their own choices.

For instance, next time you hear one of those say there's nothing to choose between the parties because they're both awful, chances are very strong that that person doesn't want to admit that if he voted it'd be Republican. Lots of youngish especially people are hiding that reality because it's not cool to admit they're okay with putting children in cages, to themselves or anyone else. All this false equalization we see everywhere is to deny what's gone very wrong with the Republican Party and what it's up to. Engaged liberals/Democrats are shocked and horrified at what's happening on the right. We don't equalize.

The other but lesser possibility, btw, is that the denier's in the radical-extremist range that includes both left and right. They all have irrational righteousness and contempt for the vast mainstream in common, and false equalization is a major crutch for their delusions. And, of course, for these people especially the Democratic Party can never do anything right; they're united on that.

There are a bunch who don't care. Another bunch who are alienated but would require counseling to become engaged, even temporarily.

Reality is that we had so much message out there that many people hid from its uncomfortable truths about them. All those Floridians who had no intention of voting or of voting against Republicans, and/or for a black governor, really did not want to hear that Republicans are dismantling healthcare, gutting Medicaid, raising taxes, and planning more atrocities against immigrant children. Much less all the rest. They knew it and weren't going to vote against it anyway.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
33. Couldn't Desantis racist campaign
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:46 AM
Nov 2018

Have more of an effect than his ideology which most in that same exit poll said Gillum's politics are "just right".

Also the FBI stuff. Not that he did anything wrong but probably more of a factor in a close election?

bdamomma

(63,650 posts)
31. Voter suppression
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:38 AM
Nov 2018

is still a major factor, both Abrams and Gillum were superb candidates. I hope they do not leave the political scene.
Florida has always been messed up with their tallying up votes since 2000. I'm glad Abrams did not concede.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
37. +1000. Stacey's not conceding, btw, reportedly wants
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:59 AM
Nov 2018

a full recount. Good for her! If Kemp didn't really get over 50%, we'll have a runoff in December.

If she doesn't become governor she'll be out of office for a while, but Gillum is apparently still mayor of Tallahassee.

Hard to imagine either would leave politics, especially not now, but if they tried we'd drag 'em back into the fray. Far too good to let go.

In a 4 a.m. dispatch, the Democrat’s campaign explained why Abrams could net the roughly 25,000 ballots needed to trigger a Dec. 4 runoff against Kemp. The runoff would be necessary if neither candidate gets a majority-vote needed to win outright.

Her campaign argued that only a portion of the mail-in ballots in three metro Atlanta counties – Cobb, DeKalb and Gwinnett – had yet to be counted. And four other large Democratic-leaning counties – Athens-Clarke, Chatham, Douglas and Henry – hadn’t tallied any mail-in ballots by 4 a.m.

In all, those seven counties are expected to return at least 77,000 mail-in ballots, the Abrams campaign said.

Another 20,000 or so absentee ballots are set to be counted in Gwinnett County, as are a range of provisional and paper ballots, some cast because of technical issues at polling precincts.

“Votes remain to be counted. Voices waiting to be heard,” said Abrams, adding: “We are going to make sure that every vote is counted – because in a civilized nation, the machinery of democracy should work everywhere for everyone.”







SaschaHM

(2,897 posts)
6. Florida got redder in the Trump era faster than it's getting bluer.
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 04:40 AM
Nov 2018

Rural areas nationwide are surging because of the guy so the old math won't work anymore.

It's time to let Rural republicans suffer under Republican leadership. They're never going to have a price to pay for their vote because they always get bailed out with our constituents.

JI7

(89,172 posts)
16. the democratic cities need to do all they can to take care of their own anyways
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 05:25 AM
Nov 2018

since they wont be getting any help from the republicans.

LenaBaby61

(6,965 posts)
15. I never really thought Stacey ...
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 05:23 AM
Nov 2018

had a chance to win Georgia because there was SO damn much done by Kemp, purging black/brown/Dem votes off the voting rolls. He had a damn head start, and never really let up until the very end. The one great thing is that Stacey came THIS close anyway with all of the shenanigans. I was side-eying Osoff's loss to Handle, but now I can say with certainty that Osoff was robbed in Georgia when he lost to Handle.

CANDIDATE PARTY VOTES PCT.
Karen Handel Republican 134,595 51.9%
Jon Ossoff Democrat 124,893 48.1


As for Florida, I knew that the gubernatorial race would be close even though Gillum was a far superior candidate. But he's black, and we know how that works in Florida. Older white folks there voted for their own worst interests, AGAIN. Also, from what I heard, there was a double-digit percentage of AA women who voted for DeRacist, also too many folks who voted 3rd party. IF all of that is true, WHY in the hell did they vote for a Grand Dragon to govern Florida? That state of Florida is headed for Kansas. Tourism is really down there. There's a pollution problem there where the water is so polluted, that it's RED. I STILL don't get why Gillum conceded while the vote was still being counted? I STILL give a side-eye to Ohio and Florida, and we know what happened as far as gerrymandering went in Wisconsin/Pa.

aikoaiko

(34,127 posts)
17. In GA, yes, there was suppression, but we were mostly ready and challenged it
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 05:27 AM
Nov 2018

There were long lines in Abrams supportive precincts due to not enough machines or even things like power strips. Its hard know if that accounted for 100,000 net votes but its possible.

Abrams is not conceding until all the provisional, absentee, contested votes are counted. These could bring Kemp down to the point where a runoff is required.

But also Jack Trapper hit her hard on an Achilles heel issue 2 days ago on State of the Union -- her sponsorship of a GA bill that would have led to the ban and confiscation of so-called assault weapons. She tried to avoid that particular topic during her campaign, but couldn't avoid it on national tv news. The video went viral.






peekaloo

(22,977 posts)
36. Still in Republican control
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:57 AM
Nov 2018

I haven't checked to see their gains but by the time I called it quits most D challengers were getting smoked.

RockaFowler

(7,429 posts)
22. In Florida it was Fear and Racism
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 07:54 AM
Nov 2018

I can't believe we elected a racist for governor.

If you saw the ads run against Gillum they were all to show that he was the scary black man. DeRacist must be very happy. That and he has no idea how to run anything. I thought this state was bad with pRick Scott, it's gonna be a lot worse!

peekaloo

(22,977 posts)
38. He stated last night all the negative stuff was thrown at him
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 09:03 AM
Nov 2018

not from him, DeRacist that is.

Way to Honkey it up, Florida.

Vinca

(50,168 posts)
28. I think it's clear that if there is a fair playing field, Democrats win.
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:28 AM
Nov 2018

Pennsylvania is a perfect example of that. They were ordered to "ungerrymander" and look what happened. I don't know about Florida, but the evidence of voter suppression in Georgia is pretty clear. Fortunately, Abrams isn't conceding. Another issue is how does Kemp certify his own election??????

Baitball Blogger

(46,570 posts)
35. Something funky going on in Dade and Broward.
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:47 AM
Nov 2018

The only other way to get votes in Florida is to get more reliable election machines in blue counties (They already have them in red counties).

Oh, and you can do what Republicans do. Stay close to your voters from cradle to grave. Engage them in churches and schools. Keep those social ties tight. They have a very strong subculture here in Florida, where there are paths for success for their own. It forces even Democrats to bend to their will.

Can't believe we don't have social scientists looking into this.

NewJeffCT

(56,827 posts)
44. GA seems headed for a runoff
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 08:54 PM
Nov 2018

so, Abrams and Kemp head-to-head instead of with a few others on the ballot.

It would all be about turnout if this happened - can Abrams turn out Democrats better than Kemp can Republicans?

In It to Win It

(8,139 posts)
45. Because....
Wed Nov 7, 2018, 09:02 PM
Nov 2018

GA - because it's an extremely red state and always has been overwhelmingly conservative, with the exception of the Atlanta area, the Augusta area, the Savannah area and a few more. These are the liberal bastions of Georgia. Outside of those cities... RED.

FL - it was a tossup. IT WAS SOOOOOOOOO CLOSE!!!!!!! They barely eeked it out but a win is a win, I guess.

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