Remind Me Again About The 2020 Senate Race?

[ChoppinBroccoli]

I remember reading here a while back that 2020 was going to be the year to take back the Senate because there were going to be a lot more Senate seats we would have a good shot of taking. Remind me again exactly what we're talking about in 2020. Who's up for re-election and which seats do we have a decent shot of flipping?

[unblock]

2. Wiki has it all:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2020

[jcgoldie]

3. Not looking good

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-update-how-this-years-race-sets-up-2020/

You've got COllins and Gardner in blue states which could be flipped... next best is Tillis and Ernst in R+5... also have to defend Shaheen... after losing McCaskill, Donelly, Heitkamp and probably Nelson... going into 2020 I don't see where we pick up 5 seats...

[manor321]

4. Frankly I'm not expecting dramatic pick ups

But who knows with Trump? Anything can happen.

Here's an article from Roll Call:
http://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/its-not-too-early-to-start-looking-at-the-2020-senate-map

[Liberty Belle]

5. Could Mueller indict any Senate Republicans?

If they engaged in collusion with Russia or corruption, could this be an avenue to get rid of any of them?

[Hoyt]

6. Well, maybe we'll take the Prez and have a decent shot at Senate, and odds on to increase House.

My real concern is that trump, or a new primary winner, can convince people a relatively decent economy is at risk if a Democrat wins. I don’t believe that, but a lot of people do, especially as it directly impacts them short-term.

[sweetloukillbot]

7. Basically, we have to defend about a dozen seats while Republicans have to defend over 20

Our seats are also in blue strongholds. Unfortunately, most of theirs are in red strongholds. Scenario repeats in 2022, which looks a little better to me.
We lost this time because we were defending more seats, and a chunk of them were in red states.

[RockRaven]

8. Lots of Repukes up for re-election, but in "red" states. Will depend on coat-tails & turnout to flip

Some states which could be viewed with hope if there is high turnout and a coattails effect, such as AZ (Kyl/McCain), CO (Gardner), ME (Collins), North Carolina (Tillis).

But the rest is bleak, depends on people being mad at incumbents and Trump (like perhaps if the trade war keeps hurting farmers, or a major military or economic debacle) -- Iowa, Montana, South Dakota, Georgia, Alaska.

[DarthDem]

9. Responses in Here Way Too Pessimistic

We'll be four seats down at worst, 54-46, but you can be realistic and build in the loss of the Alabama seat (which is by no means guaranteed, actually, as Doug Jones is doing a good job and you just never know).

We can get five-plus seats easily.

We will be favored against Gardner in CO.

We will be favored against Collins in ME, who in fact will likely retire.

We will be favored against Tillis in NC. North Carolina is turning around and likes to split its Senate seats.

Other pickup opportunities:

Ernst in IA.

Roberts in KS. I think Kansas made pretty clear yesterday that it is willing to consider electing Democrats statewide.

Sullivan in AK. With the right candidate this could be a flip.

Daines in MT. This is if outgoing Gov. Steve Bullock runs. If he does, he becomes the favorite against the backbenching Daines.

McCain's seat in AZ. We have several possible candidates.

There are other possibilities, like one of the Castro brothers or Beto running against Cornyn in TX. Sasse could get a challenge in NE. Perdue in GA and Rounds in SD, yes SD (see the close governor's race yesterday) could be vulnerable. With presidential-year turnout and a ridiculously unpopular "incumbent president" running for re-election, all sorts of opportunities could open up.

Meanwhile, other than Jones, absolutely no one will be vulnerable among the Democrats. They will be playing pure offense.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. I'll go along with the pessimism

Yours is wildly optimistic. Kansas? Alaska? No chance in either. This is federal, not a governorship. Besides, we could lead every senate poll by 5 points all year in Alaska and still lose. I'd certainly bet it that way, considering the caliber of polling in Alaska.

Arizona is reasonable with a good candidate. Likewise Colorado. Alabama is gone. North Carolina at 42% conservatives is hardly a swing state but we continue to pretend it is, largely due to that unfortunate Obama carry in 2008. That result probably cost Hillary clarity regarding where to campaign in 2016. She took shaky states for granted and forced a longshot state like North Carolina.

Overall since I joined this site in 2002 one of the most consistent tendencies is too much optimism in senate races and senate cycles that don't set up well.

We needed to break even this time to have reasonable opportunity at senate control in 2020.