2018 Exit Polls: White Voters Abandon the GOP

[crazytown]

Looking at the 2018 Exit Polls three numbers stand out

1. The GOP lead amongst White Voters halved from 20 points (Romney/2012, Trump/2016) to 10 : 54-44%

2. Women turned against the GOP in unpredecended numbers. Democrats won the female vote by 19 points : 59-40%

3. The GOP is not losing Hispanic Voters. 28% voted for Romney and Trump. 28% pulled the GOP lever again this year.

My conclusions are as follows: The Kavanaugh’s confirmation was every bit as damaging to the GOP with women as it appeared at the time. The GOP won male voters by 51-47%

The Invasion Panic may have cut Republican losses with Whites but it cost them little with Hispanics. I think the reason is clear enough: New immigrants directly compete for the jobs held by Latinos voters.

Finally, the GOTV with minorities was relatively successful (contrary to my earlier post). The proportion of Non White voters at this years midterms 28% matches the last three Presidential elections.

[yardwork]

1. So what happened in Georgia?

[crazytown]

3. Er ... epic voter supression

Whites still support the GOP way more than minorities.

[Sancho]

10. The GOP cheats in Florida...

[workinclasszero]

12. Voter suppression of the worst kind?

They need to call out the national guard in Georgia to guard ballot boxes and have everyone vote on paper only.

Maybe we would get the actual vote count then!

[Cetacea]

2. Since exit polls have traditionally been the most accurate

one has to wonder what happened in Georgia and Florida. (Rick Scott has an approval rating of 22 percent not too long ago)

Interesting that the USA is quietly doing away with exit polling. In Europe, exit polls are held in very high esteem.

[crazytown]

4. In theory, Exit Polls put a brake on Voting Machine fraud.

cf Ohio 2004

[shanny]

5. Another wrinkle regarding the Latino vote:

Mexican-extraction Latinos (and Cubans) can be every bit as racist toward other Latinos as whites can be towards them...which just demonstrates yet again how stupid, destructive and pointless the whole concept is.

[crazytown]

6. Yeah ... devide and rule.

A tired but effective playbook for all seasons.

[Rizen]

7. To the surprise of no one

Trump appeals to cognitively challenged voters.
https://psmag.com/news/trumps-appeal-to-the-cognitively-challenged

[crazytown]

8. Both W and Spanky had the home team advantage there.

nt

[mercuryblues]

9. Digging deeper into the numbers

explains why trumpster fire went ballistic yesterday.

2016

white men (34% of voters) went for trump by 62%

2018

white men (35% of voters) went R by 60%
----------------------------------------------------------------
2016

white voters (71%) went for trump 57%

2018
white voters (72%) went for R 54%
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2016
Male voters (41) went for trump by 52%

2018
male voters (48%) went R by 51%
----------------------------------------------------------------

2016
Female voters (53%) went for trump by 41%


2018

Female voters (52%) went R by 40%
------------------------------------------------------------------

2016
White women (37%) went for trump by 52%

2018
white women (37%) went R 49%
------------------------------------------------------------


https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls

This may not seem like a big drop in nimbers, but in less than 2 years trump is losing support almost across the board. 2020 won't be an easy road for him, when he won the electoral vote by less than 100,000 in 2016.

[NewJeffCT]

11. That's what I keep pointing out

the election was so close in 2016 that even a 1 or 2% change can be a huge difference.

2% change gives Clinton not only WI, MI and PA in 2016, but also Florida

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. If we can win 44% of the white vote we will win the 2020 presidential election in a landslide.

[RDANGELO]

14. That's correct!

If this has been a presidential election, Trump would have lost. He would have lost Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.