General Discussion
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MaryMagdaline
(7,931 posts)SCantiGOP
(14,343 posts)There are still votes to count
True_Blue
(3,063 posts)Which favors Sinema, so her lead should only increase from here on, which is why the Republicans were trying to stop the election.
SCantiGOP
(14,343 posts)Original OP said 100% of the vote was in. It does look very likely that we will win this one.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Sinema was Maricopa by almost 1% and Pima by something like 4-6%. She lost the red county, I think Pina, but it has far fewer votes that the other two, even fewer uncounted than Pima alone.
UncleTomsEvilBrother
(954 posts)...what?!?!?
I'd counted her ALL the way out!
NICE!!!!!
brettdale
(12,671 posts)Sinema 931583
McSally 922724
Leghorn21
(13,787 posts)HOLY HELL
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)A huge win for our side!!
Roland99
(53,345 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)My guess is when it is, Sinema will be ahead beyond the recount limit. She has votes in two of Arizona's largest counties yet to be counted, one favored her by 1%, the other by around 5%.
Plus, all year, late mailins have heavily favored the democrat, regardless of the county.
sheshe2
(89,271 posts)Sinema!
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)I want her to win, but there are still 350k votes that need to counted in Maricopa. What we have today is the first batch of those Eday deliverys/hand-ins. Please update your post so folks won't get the wrong message. This will be going on until next week.
Maricopa's next release will be tomorrow at 8pm est.
Leghorn21
(13,787 posts)at any rate!!!
Demsrule86
(71,038 posts)SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)It may be changing demographically, but this is the first election in 10 years that a Democrat is leading in the county. Calling it a Dem stronghold is a bit premature and a stretch. Sinema's ahead now, which portends well for her since Dems haven't won this county in 10 years, but there is still a Republican registration advantage and they were also ahead a bit on EVs. Right now we need to have our fingers crossed that the remaining EVs have the same margin, which would mean that Sinema is winning crossovers and indies, and not that there is some sort of last minute McSally surge.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)All year, late mailins have favored the democrat. Look like the late votes have broken massively for Sinema all day, my guess is that does not change the rest of the way.
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)She won Eday by 1%, that's a combination of Election day votes and mail in ballots. We don't have a breakdown showing who won w/ early votes and who won with just election day votes.
The 350k ballots being counted now are not only late mail-ins (150k), but also election day hand-ins. For Team Sinema and everyone watching this race, the worry comes with the 200k or so that were handed in on Election day. The worry is that these may be slightly more republican since they are essentially election day votes being mail votes handed in at polling places.
spooky3
(36,845 posts)SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)voting started.
spooky3
(36,845 posts)Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Are more likely to favor the democratic candidate.
Demsrule86
(71,038 posts)Given that she has moved ahead that may be true...hope so.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Looks like the late votes are breaking heavily for Sinema, as I have been saying they would for the last day.
Even with 300,000 in Maricopa county, I doubt McSally catches her. BTW, on E-Day, Sinema won Maricopa County by around 1%. Even if late votes broke like Election Day, Sinema wins. My guess, the remaining late votes break even more heavily for Sinema, because democrats are notorious for waiting until the last minute to mailin their completed ballots.
LincolnRossiter
(560 posts)necessarily lose that lead. Trump only won the county by 3.5%. Have you seen some of the trends of districts, counties, and states throughout the special elections and midterms? Jurisdictions that were Republican +22 have gone Dem. This one was R +3. NYT actually had a graphic showing the shift left across the country--not just in seats Dems picked up, but even in those that we lost close (again, tons of R +10, 15, 20, 25 that end up going just R +1, 2, and 3).
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)150k are late mail-ins. Good for Sinema.
200k are election day hand-ins. Could be good for McSally or Sinema. We really don't know. A 1% Eday+Mail in lead does not tell us who was winning in the EV (typically Dems) or who was winning on the Eday(typically Reps) nor the margins. That's the issue. Things feel good for Sinema, but AZDems have a reason to be bullish. No one is calling this race, outside of DU, because it really depends on the margins in a county with a Republican registration advantage. Sinema is doing phenomenal and having one of the best Dem showings in years. This question is going to be whether it is enough to counter the structural disadvantages. I think it will be, but I still think the race might be close when all the ballots are counted.
LincolnRossiter
(560 posts)and a history of winning elections in affluent white municipalities and suburbs (like those surrounding Phoenix) hasn't been of much use to the GOP this cycle or the last. Trump only won Maricopa by 3.5%. With what we've seen in the special elections and the midterms, that should be of little comfort to the GOP. The shift leftward has be massive. We're talking swings of 10, 15, and 20+%. Here lead is only growing as more votes from MC come in.
I'm not an expert on Arizona politics, so forgive me if I seem strident. But I think we have cause for optimism. I felt that way the moment I heard the GOP was planning lawsuits to block or impede vote counts. They know this isn't stacking up well for them.
marble falls
(62,905 posts)Bfd
(1,406 posts)She has got to be ecstatic!!
Now On to Florida!
C'mon Florida
And GA too.
Bfd
(1,406 posts)Abrams could pull this off yet!
I say Recount Tx too for BETO!! Why not.
lark
(24,478 posts)For once we are fighting back and I for one couldn't be more proud of all the hard work being done. My back hurts from sitting & standing on concrete so much today while we were learning complicated scripts to cure provisional issues, training other volunteers, then making calls. I'm tired but content. I have done everything I could. WE will know the final results soon I hope.
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,841 posts)Tuesday gets better by the hour. Lol
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)
Quixote1818
(30,515 posts)MoonRiver
(36,974 posts)


spanone
(138,078 posts)Downtown Hound
(12,618 posts)shenmue
(38,538 posts)





Cha
(306,811 posts)


rurallib
(63,395 posts)demtenjeep
(31,997 posts)He would smile at this I believe
GoCubsGo
(33,406 posts)Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,758 posts)asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)This is the seat Flacko is giving up....because he thinks he has a chance at the prez...which, he can run for - but he has as much chance at that as arpaio -
asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)Yes, I voted for Sinema..and want nothing more than for her to win..so, hold on!!!!!
Mr.Bill
(24,906 posts)I mean can we reasonably expect her to hold the lead if that's the only county where votes are yet to be counted?
asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)I am one of those mail in ballot voters and they sure as hell better count it....
Every day will be an update..I love the fact that she has built up a significant lead...
Be well Mr Bill -
Amishman
(5,858 posts)If so, any idea when the Pima numbers will come out?
Pima should push this beyond any recount or doubt if they are not already in
asiliveandbreathe
(8,203 posts)This from 8pm last night...
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/2018/11/08/still-votes-be-counted-pima-county/
Be well..looks good for Kyrsten Sinema...rethugs are having a melt down..court battles tec...whaaaaa
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)She won Maricopa County by 1% on Election Day. My guess? Sinema increases her advantage as more votes are counted.
John Fante
(3,479 posts)SINEMA 551,581
MCSALLY 523,881
Response to lapucelle (Original post)
roamer65 This message was self-deleted by its author.
BlueintheSTL
(135 posts)There are still ~500,000 votes to be counted. CNN has it at 81%, 100% is NOT CORRECT. I think Sinema will win but this is far from over.
lapucelle
(19,690 posts)Thank you for clearing up my error. Did they stop counting for the day?
BlueintheSTL
(135 posts)I think so.
GWC58
(2,678 posts)81% of the vote in. Watch out for GOP dirty tricks! 👺
Response to lapucelle (Original post)
INdemo This message was self-deleted by its author.
samnsara
(18,371 posts).but why does Steve say theres 100,000s yet to count?
spooky3
(36,845 posts)340000 in one county alone.
lapucelle
(19,690 posts)I based it on the information on the website of the SOS of Arizona which I clearly misunderstood.
https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0
spooky3
(36,845 posts)Get most of those remaining votes. ++++++++
elleng
(137,854 posts)If I recall properly, it's the 'late' votes, that is, live/voting day votes not yet reflected, and will take a while longer.
George II
(67,782 posts)John Fante
(3,479 posts)Wintryjade
(814 posts)kairos12
(13,365 posts)sweetloukillbot
(12,683 posts)But the Republicans are suing to disqualify votes, and McSally noticeably didn't declare victory on Tuesday. I think they know how this is going to end up.
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)If Kyrsten pulls out her race, she is a Centrist Democrat in a 50/50 State called Arizona. Remember this when at times she has to vote against the norm on certain issues to ensure her RE-ELECTION.
Thanks, in advance.
George II
(67,782 posts)LincolnRossiter
(560 posts)Sinema is going to pull this out in the end. Maybe Scott and Gillum can, too.
George II
(67,782 posts)....the lead has gone UP again:
A little earlier:
931,583
922,724
+8,859
Now (9:45 Eastern):
932,870
923,260
+9,610
lark
(24,478 posts)of course, this is wishful thinking, but it is possible. Sinema is looking really good and the most solid bet for great blue news, but Nelson has cut the lead in half. Brian Kemp is no longer Sec of State and there's lots of work remaining still due to the courts orders about notifying and giving folks x # of days to verify their signatures. That one looks to be tied up for awhile.
I was happy picking up 31 seats (so far) in the House, but to add these 3 important wins would be such a delectable icing for that cake. It would put Dems in such a better position for the census, reapportionment, and 2020.
Roland99
(53,345 posts)spooky3
(36,845 posts)are going to be applied.
suegeo
(2,892 posts)Kirstjen Michele Nielsen, where you at?
Az_lefty
(3,670 posts)