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OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:14 AM Nov 2018

Brexit : May hit by resignations as parliament debates Brexit deal inc her Brexit Secretary !!!

The next stage of "Reality for Slow Learners" is taking place now, after the UK Government has concluded a Brexit deal with the EU.

A number of UK ministers have resigned saying they cannot support British Prime Minister Theresa May's deal on withdrawing from the European Union. The resignations come as Mrs May issued an ultimatum to the House of Commons: back her Brexit deal, leave with no deal, or have no Brexit at all.

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey and junior ministers Shailesh Vara and Suella Braverman all tendered their resignations this morning. Mr Raab said he could not in good conscience support the terms proposed on Britain's EU withdrawal to the House of Commons. In a letter to Mrs May, Mr Raab said he cannot support the deal because the proposed regulatory regime for Northern Ireland presents a "real threat to the integrity of the UK" and the indefinite backstop arrangement allows the EU to hold a veto over "our ability to exit".

:large

Mrs May cleared the first hurdle when British cabinet ministers finally approved the draft terms of her agreement with Brussels at a five-hour meeting yesterday. But she faces a battle to get it through Parliament as pro-Leave Conservative MPs - as well as some Remainers - lined up to condemn the plan, accusing her of breaking promises and leaving the UK at the mercy of Brussels.

In a statement to the House of Commons this morning, Mrs May told MPs the government is making no plans for a 'no Brexit' situation. She later added that they will not extend the Article 50 deadline, which requires the UK to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.
Earlier Mrs May said the draft treaty was not a final agreement, but brings the UK "close to a Brexit deal".

There was laughter as she said that it would allow the UK to leave "in a smooth and orderly way".



here
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Brexit : May hit by resignations as parliament debates Brexit deal inc her Brexit Secretary !!! (Original Post) OnDoutside Nov 2018 OP
Brexit pamdb Nov 2018 #1
Yes PatSeg Nov 2018 #8
That's why I commented that it was "Reality for Slow Learners". Yes, it most unlikely to be voted OnDoutside Nov 2018 #9
Theresa May be forced out malaise Nov 2018 #2
The only factor likely to save her for now Denzil_DC Nov 2018 #3
Good point malaise Nov 2018 #4
I wasn't contradicting you, BTW Denzil_DC Nov 2018 #6
It wouldn't matter if you were malaise Nov 2018 #7
yes, exactly this JHan Nov 2018 #5
Yes, that's what has kept her in place up to now, but we are now entering the OnDoutside Nov 2018 #12
Yeah, you'll see in my reply to malaise above that I pretty much agree with you. Denzil_DC Nov 2018 #16
I'm sure ego-wise, it must be great to be Prime Minister of her country, and of course none of the OnDoutside Nov 2018 #19
I have never understood why the UK thinks it has any leverage to make a "deal" gratuitous Nov 2018 #10
This, and at a time where Trump like nutjobs are popping up in European countries (thanks Vlad !), OnDoutside Nov 2018 #14
At this point just stay Johnny2X2X Nov 2018 #11
They're exhausting all other options first ! Bear in mind, they will NEVER get better terms than OnDoutside Nov 2018 #13
As far as we know, legal opinions say the UK could withdraw from Brexit. Denzil_DC Nov 2018 #18
I've been following Brexit with one question--What about Ireland/Northern Ireland? Maeve Nov 2018 #15
As you ask ... Taoiseach welcomes draft Brexit text, says Irish priorities upheld OnDoutside Nov 2018 #17
Thank you. I have seen that the DUP are NOT happy with May Maeve Nov 2018 #21
The DUP are populist, jingoistic, creationist. I would dread the thought of them in a United Ireland OnDoutside Nov 2018 #22
No argument here! eom Maeve Nov 2018 #23
Ireland won't impose a hard border zipplewrath Nov 2018 #24
Nobody is really accepting that we would have a hard border here in Ireland, but if there's a OnDoutside Nov 2018 #28
Thatcher summed it up perfectly back at the last Brexit Referendum in 1975 OnDoutside Nov 2018 #20
When will these fucking morons learn? Blue_Tires Nov 2018 #25
Theresa May presser in an hour BritVic Nov 2018 #26
Bear in mind that they could have had her head after the last GE, but they're moral cowards. Even OnDoutside Nov 2018 #30
any chance of a referendum to change their minds and forget about brexit? unblock Nov 2018 #27
The day after Brexit I came to the view that this was such an insane vote that somehow, and I didn't OnDoutside Nov 2018 #29
This is a reasonable take on where we are now. OnDoutside Nov 2018 #31
Theresa May couldn't care less anymore OnDoutside Nov 2018 #32

pamdb

(1,331 posts)
1. Brexit
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:18 AM
Nov 2018

I’ve read since it was passed that a lot of people didn’t think it really would pass. Sort of like the 2016 election here with pumpkin head. Maybe they should try for another vote. It seems that if you have to fight that hard, tie yourself in knots trying to make everyone happy and risk your government collapsing, maybe it’s a deal not worth saving.

PatSeg

(46,804 posts)
8. Yes
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:40 AM
Nov 2018

A lot of people who voted for Brexit didn't really understand what they were voting for and later had buyer's remorse. Guess many just reacted to all the political hype.

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
9. That's why I commented that it was "Reality for Slow Learners". Yes, it most unlikely to be voted
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:40 AM
Nov 2018

down. Eventually, it will be a disastrous No Deal Brexit, or they have another Referendum (which I expect).

Denzil_DC

(7,188 posts)
3. The only factor likely to save her for now
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:28 AM
Nov 2018

is that none of her potential replacements want to be prime minister while this clusterfuck plays out, because there is no way out of the impasse she's struggling with that will satisfy a majority of her own party, let alone parliament or the country.

They need her as the fallgal, then their ambitions can have free rein.

Denzil_DC

(7,188 posts)
6. I wasn't contradicting you, BTW
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:34 AM
Nov 2018

The whole situation's totally unpredictable at the moment, and she might even decide for herself that she's had enough by the end of the day!

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
12. Yes, that's what has kept her in place up to now, but we are now entering the
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:43 AM
Nov 2018

piss or get off the pot phase, where the Brexiteers like Johnson etc have been cowardly hiding behind May. My gut feeling is that when this goes down in the Commons, she will resign and land the entire mess into their lap.

Denzil_DC

(7,188 posts)
16. Yeah, you'll see in my reply to malaise above that I pretty much agree with you.
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:57 AM
Nov 2018

She's probably more likely to jump (or threaten to) than be pushed at this stage.

I've no idea why she's hung in there so long anyway. She's not cut out for or up to the job and shows few signs of enjoying it, and she's hated the public-facing side of the role, especially during elections - local appearances have been few and very highly restricted, and she doesn't participate in televised debates.

Maybe in her warped worldview she thinks she's doing the right thing for the country, but I'm sceptical about that. Maybe she thinks she's doing the right thing for her party, but it's exploding anyway.

If we had a decent opposition, she'd already be out of power.

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
19. I'm sure ego-wise, it must be great to be Prime Minister of her country, and of course none of the
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 10:10 AM
Nov 2018

Brexiteers wanted to be the ones who took the UK out of the EU, if it all went pear shaped. She probably knew that her days were always numbered, and is hanging in there to she how long she can last, since the others were a bunch of cowards. I actually have a bit of respect for her, in guiding this process, and in finally facing down the DUP. Let's remember (in a politically astute move), that she brought all those Brexit cowards like Johnson, Gove, Davies etc into Government, and one by one they all ran away.

But for Corbyn, the Tories would be heading the way of the Republican Party (that may still happen, but further down the line), that's the real sickener.

BTW, it's hard not to imagine a January General Election, even though it's now technically a fixed term Parliament.

gratuitous

(82,849 posts)
10. I have never understood why the UK thinks it has any leverage to make a "deal"
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:40 AM
Nov 2018

Once they set off the bomb of the Brexit vote, the EU was in no mood to say, "Oh, goodness, we never knew how unhappy you were! Here, let us put in a bunch of pot sweeteners and give you all the benefits you liked without any of the responsibilities you didn't like." Because that's not how it works, and clearly the Brexit supporters didn't think this through.

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
14. This, and at a time where Trump like nutjobs are popping up in European countries (thanks Vlad !),
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:51 AM
Nov 2018

the British have made a massive miscalculation that this is all about them. It isn't. If the EU give the British a better deal than they already have within the EU, what's to stop other EU countries taking their country out of the EU ? This is fundamentally about the future of the European Union, as an institution, and as a force for a peaceful Europe.

Johnny2X2X

(18,745 posts)
11. At this point just stay
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:42 AM
Nov 2018

The people don't want it, but they think they should follow through on their vote. May can give everyone an out and claim victory if she wants. Forget Brexit, but use this to get some better terms for staying in the EU, claim victory and move on.

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
13. They're exhausting all other options first ! Bear in mind, they will NEVER get better terms than
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:47 AM
Nov 2018

they already have, in being members of the EU.

Even if they accept this "soft" Brexit deal, they will essentially have much of the same as they had before but ZERO power and influence - no Commissioners, no MEPs, no Prime Ministerial level equality within the EU.

Denzil_DC

(7,188 posts)
18. As far as we know, legal opinions say the UK could withdraw from Brexit.
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 10:01 AM
Nov 2018

But if it did so, it would be pretty much impossible for it to get better terms than existed before Article 50 was triggered.

The UK gained many concessions over the years, and part of the deal for remaining now would likely be that it would lose many of those - to encourage the other EU members to accept the cancellation, and to discourage any other members from threatening withdrawal as a bargaining ploy.

Maeve

(42,224 posts)
15. I've been following Brexit with one question--What about Ireland/Northern Ireland?
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:53 AM
Nov 2018

Was in Ireland in '14 and took a day trip to Northern Ireland. Enjoyed the fact that, driving along the border, the main way we could tell we crossed one way or the other was the way gasoline prices were displayed at the petrol stations (euro vs pound). No hard border.

I'd hate to see that change, but...

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
17. As you ask ... Taoiseach welcomes draft Brexit text, says Irish priorities upheld
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 09:59 AM
Nov 2018

The reality is that this is a moot point. The deal the UK have agreed to, will in all likelihood be voted down in the UK Parliament. So at the end of that process, we will still be left with

1) No deal Brexit (disaster for everyone) Hard border would have to be imposed.
2) Referendum, to put this deal to the UK people, along with Hard Brexit and maybe Stay in EU option...which would require a further Referendum to chose between the top two.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said he is pleased that Ireland's concerns and priorities have been addressed in the new draft Brexit deal.

Speaking after the publication of the text this evening, Mr Varadkar said decisive progress has been made.

He was "pleased to report" that the deal reached a satisfactory outcome on all the key Irish priorities, including the protection of the peace process, the common travel area and its associated benefits for Irish citizens, maintaining Ireland's place at the "heart of Europe", and protecting jobs and the economy.

The current commitment from the UK on the Northern Ireland border is stronger than that of last December, he said.

Mr Varadkar said avoiding a hard border had been "one of the most difficult challenges" of the process, but the draft withdrawal agreement had fully spelt out the backstop arrangement.

The Taoiseach said the EU and UK would establish a shared customs territory, with Northern Ireland applying some additional rules for goods to ensure a free-flowing border.

He made clear the backstop would remain in place "unless and until" a better solution is agreed.


https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1114/1010778-government-brexit/

Maeve

(42,224 posts)
21. Thank you. I have seen that the DUP are NOT happy with May
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 10:21 AM
Nov 2018

Nor she with them, frankly. And some Irish Nationalists are talking unification again. (over here, they have a pretty loud voice--the Irish-American population is heavily pro-unification if they are aware of the politics at all)
Interesting times...

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
22. The DUP are populist, jingoistic, creationist. I would dread the thought of them in a United Ireland
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 10:41 AM
Nov 2018

It's such a pity that the UUP were squeezed out of it (like the SDLP on the Nationalist side), they were reasonable.

The DUP should never have been allowed to be the balance of power in a UK Government. The interesting thing now is whether they are prepared to bring down the Government because they didn't get their way, and risk returning to obscurity after the next General Election.

zipplewrath

(16,646 posts)
24. Ireland won't impose a hard border
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 11:46 AM
Nov 2018

I though I have repeatedly read that Ireland is refusing to impose a hard border regardless of what the UK agrees to. Not sure how they do that and be able to remain in the EU. And the UK has little interest in imposing one from their side, and NI would have even less. Has Ireland resigned itself to a hard border? I would think that this is going to push NI away from the UK and toward reunification purely on economic grounds.

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
28. Nobody is really accepting that we would have a hard border here in Ireland, but if there's a
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 12:47 PM
Nov 2018

Hard Brexit, they will have no choice. The Irish Government has given out the noises that we would simply not put up a hard border from our side, but I agree with you, if we want to remain within the EU, they would simply have to, and the British would have to on their side. No matter what either side says now. I do worry that violence would return, though I can't imagine the silent majority of the Unionist population would tolerate the DUP leading them back into war, even though a majority of Unionists voted for Brexit. If May's Soft Brexit was accepted, NI would probably enjoy the best of both worlds, that deal is unlikely to be passed.

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
25. When will these fucking morons learn?
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 11:53 AM
Nov 2018

There was never any "good" deal to be had here no matter who was PM because Brexit was a godawful stupid idea to begin with and that was *before* it got bolstered by a mountain of have-our-cake-and-eat-it-too magical pie in the sky promises that were only made because even the Brexit ringleaders never thought in a million years that people would be dumb enough to vote in favor of it...

BritVic

(262 posts)
26. Theresa May presser in an hour
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 11:57 AM
Nov 2018

Have the leavers got the numbers for a leadership contest? We are so screwed.

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
30. Bear in mind that they could have had her head after the last GE, but they're moral cowards. Even
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 12:53 PM
Nov 2018

that look Rees-Mogg has just said HE won't stand for PM, but encouraged others to do so !!!

unblock

(51,974 posts)
27. any chance of a referendum to change their minds and forget about brexit?
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 12:02 PM
Nov 2018

i'm sure "leave" still has its supporters, but i would think more "remain" people would actually vote if given another opportunity....

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
29. The day after Brexit I came to the view that this was such an insane vote that somehow, and I didn't
Thu Nov 15, 2018, 12:51 PM
Nov 2018

know how, but that they would have another vote on it. I still maintain that will happen, but they are exhausting every alternative before arriving at that same conclusion. We may have to see this deal defeated, May to resign, a General Election, and potentially TWO Referendums, before we see daylight on this.

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