Josh Marshall (TPM) on attempts to displace Pelosi as speaker

[hlthe2b]

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Jim Lane]

1. The reference to Kevin McCarthy is a red herring

From the excerpt:

They’re now blackmailing the expanded Democratic caucus into a crisis. The other name on the ballot for Speaker is Kevin McCarthy.

It takes a majority to elect the Speaker. None of the Democrats who oppose Pelosi will vote for McCarthy. He can't win.

Suppose all the Republicans vote for McCarthy, most of the Democrats vote for Pelosi, and some Democrats split off and vote for someone else. (There might be more than one challenger.) It would be possible for McCarthy to have the most votes, but a plurality isn't enough. In that scenario, no one would be elected, and there would be a second ballot.

My guess is that the opposition to Pelosi doesn't have the votes to elect anyone else. They can vote against her on the first ballot, tell their electorates that they fulfilled their pledge, and then vote for her on the second ballot so that the House doesn't drift along without a Speaker.

I usually have a lot of respect for Josh Marshall, but in this case he's giving a misleading impression. Some people reading his tweets would think that McCarthy might become Speaker if the Democrats don't all fall in line behind Pelosi. That's simply not the case.

[hlthe2b]

2. It is unlikely but theoretically possible with a lot of absentions.

Many don't understand the process but Josh Marshall DOES. If we have a lot of foot-stamping petulant newbs abstaining, in the even that no viable alternative has emerged to acquire a majority vote (abstaining rather than voting for Pelosi, in order to salvage their promise to consitutents), yes, it could happen.

Selection

The House of Representatives elects the Speaker of the House on the first day of every new Congress and in the event of the death, resignation or removal from the Chair of an incumbent Speaker.[8] The Clerk of the House of Representatives requests nominations: there are normally two, one from each major party (each party having previously met to decide on its nominee). The Clerk then calls the roll of the Representatives, each Representative indicating the surname of the candidate the Representative is supporting. Representatives are not restricted to voting for one of the nominated candidates and may vote for any person, even for someone who is not a member of the House at all. They may also abstain by voting "present".[9]

Although no rule exists, based on tradition and practice from the earliest days of the nation, to be elected speaker a candidate must receive an absolute majority of all votes cast for individuals, i.e. excluding those who abstain. If no candidate wins such a majority, then the roll call is repeated until a speaker is elected. The last time repeated votes were required was in 1923, when the Speaker was elected on the ninth ballot.[9]

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[Blue_true]

3. I read that the Speaker is elected by a vote of those present on the floor.

The vote does not have to reach 218 to win. In theory MCCarthy could be elected Speaker if the rebels vote for someone else and many democrats don't show up for the vote. From what I can gather, if McCarthy has the most votes then, he is speaker.

If the way I understand it is right, the newbie Dems had better get their shit together or they will get primaried out. They can oppose Pelosi in caucus, ask for a public recording of the vote, then either stay away or vote for Pelosi on the House floor. After what a lot of people went through or sent money to get them elected, they had better not fuck up us getting the Speaker post. The Speaker determines which legistlation gets taken up, as a minority Speaker, McCarthy could effectively choke off all Democratic Party sponsored legistlation, making us sending the newbies to Congress meaningless.

[Jim Lane]

4. Your reference to the caucus answers the problem

Until I read Marshall's tweets, I hadn't even been thinking about a ballot for all House members that had more than two names on it. My assumption was that all challenges to Pelosi would be mounted within the Democratic caucus. That still serves the function I described: Members who pledged to vote against Pelosi can do so at their first opportunity, and then, having sent her a message, go along with the caucus majority.