Let's talk about Senate elections

[George II]

Last Tuesday the Democrats lost seats in the Senate, but it wasn't really as bad as some might think, and there are better times ahead.

On November 6 Democrats had 25 seats expiring, republicans only 8.

We lost four (assuming Nelson might lose), republicans lost two. Percentage-wise that's actually a better showing than the republicans - we lost 16% of our seats vs. 25% of theirs. and those two pickups eased the losses. Plus there's a runoff election in Mississippi coming up in a few weeks against a stumbling republican. A little rosy spin on a "loss".

Now the good times are ahead of us. In 2020 the Democrats will have only 12 seats vs. republicans 21, and in 2022 we'll have 12 again vs. republicans 22.

Considering we're only down anywhere from 51-49 (best case) or 53-47 (worst case) now, things are looking pretty good if we can survive the next two years. We have a great opportunity in two years to regain the majority (and maybe the Presidency?), and two years later to increase that lead. Having strong control of the House should make those two years easier to live through than the last two years.

[beachbum bob]

1. 2020 and 2022 will be huge years for democrats...the trump factor will last long after he is gone

[jcgoldie]

2. Isn't the worst (and most likely) scenario actually 47 - 53?

Unless some huge discrepancy happens in the FLA recount wouldn't that be the breakdown assuming the GOP also wins MS runoff as expected?

[Celerity]

4. the OP said that exact thing

[jcgoldie]

6. It seems like they edited it

I swore when I responded it said 52-48... or maybe I'm drunk, whatever.

[George II]

10. You're not drunk, I corrected it simultaneously!!

(maybe I SHOULD be drunk??)

[Celerity]

11. lol, cool, we 3 were all right, I think? lolololol

[George II]

5. Yes, I updated it just as you posted this. Sorry.

[Celerity]

12. have a 7 20 AM drink on me! lolol

[jcgoldie]

13. No problem

Thanks for confirming I'm not crazy... I agree the Senate doesn't look nearly as bad as it was starting to on election night. Hopefully Trump continues to have an even bigger drag effect on 2020. The issue I see is even though they are defending a lot more seats in 2020, there aren't very many that aren't in GOP + red states. Once you get past Collins in Maine and Gardner in Colorado which are looking like good pickup chances... then you have to defend Doug Jones' seat in AL which looks like an uphill climb provided the republicans put up someone who isn't a child molester this time... then you have Tillis in NC which has been trending purple recently... and McCain's seat in AZ definitely winnable... but after that you have people like Earnst in Iowa which would take a pretty huge wave to win back I think based on results from last week. So lets say we get ME, AZ, CO and lose AL... that still gives them a 51-49 advantage... have to win the presidency (obviously if we can't do that the senate's the least of our worries, and then pickup a red seat.

[Liberty Belle]

3. The gravest danger is Trump stacking our courts.

Dems need to do everything possible to swing two or three seat or two to three votes BEFORE the 2020 election. There are ways to do that:

1. Get a couple of Republicans indicted, convicted, and removed from office for crimes.
2. Persuade a couple of Republicans to change parties and be with the new majority; offer them lots of pork for their district, key committee assignments or whatever it takes. Lisa Murkowski would be the most likely.
3. No control over this one, but a seat could open unexpectedly if like McCain anyone has a serious health issue or dies.
4.

Barring this, try to convince a couple of them to vote no on the worst of the judicial appointments or just abstain from voting to keep them from getting seated. Do some horse trading to get something they might want for their district into spending bills to make this happen. They can't pass any spending bills without the House which Dems now control. Time to play hardball.

[Bradshaw3]

7. Spot on

If 2020 is a big year for the Democratic nominee for President (and past trends show it could be) then we could win back the Senate then too. Although most of the repub seats look pretty safe for that cycle (I look at 4 to 6 in play), 2022 looks even better.

[Funtatlaguy]

8. Would like to hear from people in Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee.

All three states were blowouts.
However, all three were close in the last few weeks of polling.
Was it people lying to pollsters, bad polling companies, late deciders for GOP?

[jcgoldie]

15. Looks to me like the rural areas all doubled down on Trump

And if they haven't baled on him after these disastrous 2 years, then I don't see it happening at all barring a bad recession which is possible. But that's why I have a hard time seeing Iowa, for example, flipping very easily.

[George II]

19. One of the problems we'll always have is inbalance in the Senate.....

....a state with almost 40 million people has two Senators, several states with less than a million people also have two Senators.

In fact, the 22 lowest populated states, when combined, have a population equal to California. they get 44 Senators, California only 2. And you can just imagine the political ideology of many in those 22 states!

[jcgoldie]

22. Bill Maher's been saying it for years

"Why the fuck does South Dakota get two senators?" Pretty sure that's the inherent conservative bias the founding fathers baked in.

[George II]

24. A few states get more Senators than Congressmen!

[PAMod]

37. "...and why are there two Dakotas?"

Maher is a national treasure...

[Farmer-Rick]

16. I live in TN

It was Gerrymandering...my district is a very weird snake on it's tail. And it was those electronic voting machines that produce a lot of errors.

When I did some calling for Dems to get out the vote, several people were so despondent about the rigged voting machines they told me straight out they were NOT voting at all.

They really don't care if an accurate vote count is taken here in TN. At least it feels like that. That's why I'm thinking of selling the farm. I really hate this lackadaisical attitude to fraud in voting.

[jcgoldie]

17. How can gerrYmandering affect the senate? NT

[Funtatlaguy]

20. True. I was only asking about the 3 statewide Senate losses.

[Farmer-Rick]

23. Yeah, it really doesn't but it affects the house

and most all the other seats. So, you get a lot of people who feel they don't have a vote in most elections.

I explained to my better half why gerrymandering doesn't affect the Senate and I don't think she got it. But yeah, it doesn't affect the Senate so much as it just depresses the vote overall.

Also, during the last theft of the presidency, east TN did this weird thing where they consolidated voting precincts in rural areas so it was really hard to find your precinct. And the lines were really long and the poll workers especially uninformed. They seemed to have repeated that whole process again for this midterm election.

[haele]

25. Gerrymandering affects the Senate by forcing more voters of one party into a district...

and then suppressing the vote in that district.
Voter suppression includes:
Not enough voting machines, or voting machines that don't work/flip votes.
Spoiled or confusing ballots that can't be scanned properly.
Polling places moved at the last minute, or moved to an inaccessible location for people who use public transportation, or to where there's not enough parking.
Poll site intimidation; hostile or in-trained poll workers, incomplete registration lists.
Return addresses on mail-in ballots with the wrong address.
Resulting in fewer voters of that party being able to vote when they are making a serious attempt to vote.

The excuse will always be "Those people are too stupid to vote", but in reality, it's locking the opposition party into one gerrymandered box of a district instead risking a more reasonably equitable scattering of purple districts in which everyone has the chance for their vote to be counted equally, no matter the party.
That's why the GOP has lost so often in the redistricted California. The reality is that they're only 30% of the state electorate instead of 50% as they like to claim. With a bi-partisan/neutral re-districting board setting boundaries, the actual constituency in, say, Orange County, can be more accurately represented, instead of having eight "locked" districts where registration and poll suppression actions can keep an increasingly minority political powerhouse in charge.
If the GOP is losing members through aging out or because of the transitory nature of communities, then so be it. Neither Dems or 'Pubs have a right to stake a permanent claim on land due to some plantation society tradition.


Haele

[Celerity]

38. +1000

[Garrett78]

33. It can impact the Senate in the sense that it turns people away from politics.

If people are frustrated that their district is gerrymandered, they may just opt out of voting.

[SaschaHM]

28. Let's not forget that Missouri and Indiana were won in 2012 after the favored GOP challengers

revealed their true feelings about rape and abortion.

[hostalover]

30. I'm Missouri. The polling showed McCaskill and Hawley neck and neck right up to the end, but

he won handily (50 something to 40 something, as I remember). I live in Jackson county (metroplitan KC) and our county went for Clair 60 to 30. Same in St. Louis. Columbia (college town) was 49-47 Clair. Every other county was Hawley. Every single one of them
Very depressing. Trump made 4 trips to our state, and Hawley was on the stage with him in at least one picture that I saw. They always stuck to southern Missouri. Our state legislature is solid repub. Also governor. Looks like we will be red for many years, but I'm thankful to at least live in Jackson county. Emmanuel Cleaver is our rep and that helps!

[JHan]

9. Yup. 2020 will be interesting :)

[dalton99a]

14. Yep. 2020 is what everyone should focus on going forward

[backtoblue]

18. We need a great candidate to challenge Tom Cotton in 2020

This district has been democratic before. I wanted to puke when I saw him chumming it up with Graham, McConnell, etc during the Kavanaugh "hearings".

It will be a hard fight. And probably ugly.

[Gothmog]

21. This could have been worse

Hillary Clinton should be POTUS in that she won the popular vote. If Clinton was in office, the Democrats would have lost a number of these seats. Looking at the map, the Democrats could have been down 5 to 10 seats but for trump being POTUS

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

26. Tha OP sentence reminds me of JEssie Dollemore.

Are you Jessie George??

[George II]

27. To be honest, I never heard of that guy before.

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

29. Dollemore Daily. On youtube. He's bedrock Democrat and very informed.

Ex Marine. Check him out if you have a mind. Have a good weekend George.

[Honeycombe8]

31. Is there a senate race besides Nelson that isn't decided yet?

Repubs lost 3
Dems lost 2
Net gain for Repubs = 1 (51 to 49 totals)
(assuming Nelson loses)

[George II]

32. There's a runoff in Mississippi at the end of November.

[Garrett78]

34. 2020 doesn't look all that favorable when you consider who is up for re-election.

But we can hope that a massive turnout for Kamala Harris and her running mate will pay dividends downballot.

I haven't looked to see who all is up for re-election in 2022, but let's remember that the president's party often suffers losses in midterms. And I don't even want to consider the possibility that we won't have the presidency by then.

Sadly, in this tyranny of the minority system we have, about 40% of the Senate seats are virtually out of reach for Democrats, whereas Democrats have *maybe* 30% in the bag.

[George II]

35. Here are the seats that are up for re-election in 2020 and 2022

The only Democrat that might be vulnerable in 2020 is Doug Jones. They'll be all over that one, and Sessions may run for his old seat. All the others look pretty safe.

The republicans that are vulnerable (my opinion) are definitely Susan Collins, maybe Capito, Cornyn (will he run again?), Hyde-Smith, (but she may not even be there if we win the runoff in a couple of weeks) and maybe one or two others.

2022 is too far away, but I don't see any Democrats that would be threatened but three or four republicans.

All things considered, if we get through these next two years I think we're in very good shape.

2020

Democrats

Booker, Cory A. (D-NJ)
Coons, Christopher A. (D-DE)
Durbin, Richard J. (D-IL)
Jones, Doug (D-AL)
Markey, Edward J. (D-MA)
Merkley, Jeff (D-OR)
Peters, Gary C. (D-MI)
Reed, Jack (D-RI)
Shaheen, Jeanne (D-NH)
Smith, Tina (D-MN)
Udall, Tom (D-NM)
Warner, Mark R. (D-VA)

Republicans

Alexander, Lamar (R-TN)
Capito, Shelley Moore (R-WV)
Cassidy, Bill (R-LA)
Collins, Susan M. (R-ME)
Cornyn, John (R-TX)
Cotton, Tom (R-AR)
Daines, Steve (R-MT)
Enzi, Michael B. (R-WY)
Ernst, Joni (R-IA)
Gardner, Cory (R-CO)
Graham, Lindsey (R-SC)
Hyde-Smith, Cindy (R-MS)
Inhofe, James M. (R-OK)
McConnell, Mitch (R-KY)
Perdue, David (R-GA)
Risch, James E. (R-ID)
Roberts, Pat (R-KS)
Rounds, Mike (R-SD)
Sasse, Ben (R-NE)
Sullivan, Dan (R-AK)
Tillis, Thom (R-NC)

2022

Democrats

Bennet, Michael F. (D-CO)
Blumenthal, Richard (D-CT)
Cortez Masto, Catherine (D-NV)
Duckworth, Tammy (D-IL)
Harris, Kamala D. (D-CA)
Hassan, Margaret Wood (D-NH)
Leahy, Patrick J. (D-VT)
Murray, Patty (D-WA)
Schatz, Brian (D-HI)
Schumer, Charles E. (D-NY)
Van Hollen, Chris (D-MD)
Wyden, Ron (D-OR)

Republicans

Blunt, Roy (R-MO)
Boozman, John (R-AR)
Burr, Richard (R-NC)
Crapo, Mike (R-ID)
Grassley, Chuck (R-IA)
Hoeven, John (R-ND)
Isakson, Johnny (R-GA)
Johnson, Ron (R-WI)
Kennedy, John (R-LA)
Kyl, Jon (R-AZ)
Lankford, James (R-OK)
Lee, Mike (R-UT)
Moran, Jerry (R-KS)
Murkowski, Lisa (R-AK)
Paul, Rand (R-KY)
Portman, Rob (R-OH)
Rubio, Marco (R-FL)
Scott, Tim (R-SC)
Shelby, Richard C. (R-AL)
Thune, John (R-SD)
Toomey, Patrick J. (R-PA)
Young, Todd (R-IN)

[Garrett78]

36. A lot can happen in 2 years. I just think picking up enough seats to become the majority...

...will be a tall order.